Thursday, 25 November 2021

Carbon floor price suggestion from...Germany

 So this is very interesting. 

It shows why COP26 will be successful in the long-term. Other countries in Europe have tried a floor price, but it never worked when heavy industry Germany with its coal power was not playing ball. 

For Germany to get in the game and set a floor, is...err...game-changing. 

It means carbon traders can be sure there will be no big drop and indeed many will now expect the price to go 2x to 3x from here  - nice for trading. 

More widely it shows there is lots of money to be made from the carbon transition - more than say pouring money into arms or oil. Which is why even China and Russia are relatively keen, they can sense there is a lot of industrial kit to sell to Europe and the US - all whilst creaming it on selling coal and gas at massive margins for another 20 years or so. 

42 comments:

dearieme said...

I can read between the lines. I'll invest in Exxon.

James Higham said...

Good grief. I'll invest in Exxon too.

Anonymous said...

Latest Private Eye says this is significant, too. Germans must be serious.

Anonymous said...

Pity the whole thing is such bollocks.

Elby the Beserk said...

Gosh! Anyone might think we were a carbon based life form on a carbon based planet...

Don Cox said...

The Earth is not a "carbon based planet". The proportion of Carbon is extremely small.

The core is mainly Iron and Nickel, with some Sulphur. Nearer the surface, there is far more Silicon and Oxygen.

Don Cox

Nigel Sedgwick said...

The German government's prior decision-making on energy policy has been dire.

Reversing a wrong decision (in a true binary option situation) would indeed be an improvement.

However, energy policy is not a binary option situation. Accordingly, (probably and IMHO) this new decision comes from an organisation whose track-record speaks more truly than does believing a non-binary option is a binary option.

Keep safe and best regards

Nick Drew said...

@The German government's prior decision-making on energy policy has been dire

Never a truer word. It's still totally infeasible

Elby the Beserk said...

Don Cox said...
The Earth is not a "carbon based planet". The proportion of Carbon is extremely small.

The core is mainly Iron and Nickel, with some Sulphur. Nearer the surface, there is far more Silicon and Oxygen.

Don Cox

12:03 pm
======================

Carbon makes it work for us.

Elby the Beserk said...

https://geneticliteracyproject.org/2019/05/14/life-on-earth-is-carbon-based-but-that-doesnt-mean-other-planets-have-to-use-the-same-building-block/

"All life on Earth, and thus, all life we’ve ever observed in the universe, shares a few basic characteristics. Its molecular structures are built using carbon, it relies on water to act as a solvent and facilitate chemical reactions, and it uses DNA or RNA as its blueprints."

Don Cox said...

It's the phrase "carbon based planet" that is misleading. Everyone knows that all life on Earth is based on molecules that contain Carbon, but life is only a very thin film of bizarre chemicals on the surface of the Earth.

"Carbon based life" is fine.

The planet Earth would trundle along as usual if all life were wiped out. The element Carbon is not essential for its existence or its orbit.

Wikipedia has a useful article on "Abundance of Elements".

Don Cox

Anonymous said...

"It's the phrase "carbon based planet" that is misleading. "

We all understood the point Elby the Beserk was trying to make.

Can you stop the 'sperging' now?

Don Cox said...

I think he's claiming that because life is based on molecules with carbon, increases in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cannot cause global warming.

That isn't a logical argument. They can and do.

If he is just saying that the problem isn't as desperate and urgent as the non-scientists (politicians, people who sell wind turbines, etc) and insulation nutters claim, then I agree. But it is a real problem, and in my opinion nuclear fusion power will solve it. In the medium term, changing from coal and wood chips to gas and nuclear fission will be enough to slow down the process.

Don Cox

E-K said...

A lot of money in masks !

Builder's merchants demanded I wear one yesterday and when I asked if it would be suitable to strip and asbestos roof they told me not to be stupid. (???)

Pub today. Masks demanded at the bar (why ? It has a screen.) So at the end of the session there am I picking up a fistful of used masks ... if I wasn't infected with anything before I probably am now !

Here we go again. Closed pubs, cancelled Christmas. I cannot for the life of me see why this is not going to become an annual event.

Anonymous said...

E-K: "Here we go again"

Someone pointed out on another blog, an anagram of 'omicron' is moronic. The name may have been chosen by a NGO NPC with a sense of humor.

Of course the 'fistful of used masks' apart from being a sewer of festering bacteria and repository of sundary viri, are utterly useless for the task.

A tolerably useful N95 mask will filter 95% of particles 0.3 microns or larger, a coronovirus viri is between 0.1 and 0.5 microns. So an N95 mask at the cheaper end will filter 95% of viri over 0.3 and perhaps 5% of viri between 0.1 and 0.3 microns.

As a method to arrest the transmission of such a deadly pathogen as COVID-19 even N95 masks are pretty much useless.

The 'surgical' masks people have elected to use, .......

Don Cox said...

The singular is "virus" and the plural is "viruses". It's an English word.

The Latin word "virus" means "poisonous slime" and like "treacle" in English it is never used in the plural.

It's a pity that Latin is no longer being taught in schools, as so many words in biology come from it.

As for masks, maybe they reduce spread by 5%. Maybe not.

Don Cox

Anonymous said...

"As for masks, maybe they reduce spread by 5%. Maybe not."

They don't.

Thanks for the latin instruction. I agree with you on that score.

Anonymous said...

Why don’t we know the efficiency of cloth masks?
Billions of people have worn them. Are forced to wear them or desire to wear them. Why do t we know, for sure, after two years of real world experimentation, if they work?

Because we do not want to know. Governments, and oppositions want to be able to ‘Do something.’ This is something. Something that doesn’t cost much to individuals or business. And , who knows, it might even make a 5% difference.
2m distance, at all times, would be far more effective.

The panic about touching stuff, has near vanished. As touching stuff does not spread Covid. Something known, tested, proved beyond doubt, for over a year. Yet barely reported on. Despite being in all official advice and updates.

Hand sanitizer does zip. Yet it will be everywhere.

Two things, that do nothing, being sought and used with all the belief of plaguey beaks.

DJK said...

>"As for masks, maybe they reduce spread by 5%. Maybe not." They don't.

Such certainty! Maybe masks work by frightening people into staying at home or keeping their distance? Incidentally, I thought that Nathan Zahawi was extremely foolish to declare a couple of weeks ago that Britain was leading the world out of the pandemic. If only he knew of a classical scholar who could teach him the meaning of hubris.

Back to the carbon price floor. I suppose it's a good thing. But sooner or later the EU will have to introduce a carbon tax on imports from the COP26 refusniks --- principally, China. I can't really see the Germans saddling their own industry with extra costs without wanting to apply the same to China.

Nick Drew said...

Ah, the carbon price floor! - thank you, DJK.

The EU indeed has a sketchy plan for a border tax on CO2: the 'carbon border adjustment mechanism'

https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/green-taxation-0/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en

... "so that ambitious climate action in Europe does not lead to ‘carbon leakage’"

As currently drafted, it's pretty leaky in its own right: a coach and horses could amble through it without touching the sides. The EU has never managed to police subsidised "olive-growing" within the EU itself, nor the "sustainability" of the forests that provide it with biomass / biofuels; and it sure as hell has no idea how to police the carbon content of imports coming from thousands of miles away from countries with no accountable standards whatsoever and a vast incentive to lie through their teeth

Elby the Beserk said...

Don :-)

Carbon makes the world go around, the world go around, the world go around...

Elby the Beserk said...

Output from renewables, both wind and solar, way down from last year - Germany and the UK

https://notrickszone.com/2021/11/27/weather-lulls-germany-forced-to-burn-20-more-coal-the-very-energy-source-thats-to-be-phased-out/

"Renewables’s output plummet 16.1%

“In relation to total energy consumption, the share of renewables has decreased by a total of 16.1 percent compared to the previous year,” writes Blackout News. “Electricity generation by wind power plants fell sharply, by 18 percent for onshore plants and 14 percent for offshore plants.”

Solar energy fared even worse, producing only half as much as the year earlier."

And when we are told about how cheap renewables are becoming, consider this...

"The cost of stabilising the grid and keeping the lights on has been rising alarmingly in recent years – it was £1200 million in 2019, and reached around £1792 million in 2020.

There is always a certain morbid fascination in seeing the costs shoot up from hour to hour when the wind isn’t blowing, or indeed when it is blowing too hard, or when it’s blowing in the wrong place. (As it was two days ago, with the Balancing Mechanism bill rising at something like £5 million every hour, hitting a new daily record at £63 million)."

https://www.netzerowatch.com/balancing-mechanism-competition/

I think I am right in saying coal was needed for COP26 to function.

How stupid are we?

dearieme said...

Renewables: shouldn't we be burning all those used surgical masks in power stations?

lilith said...

I just bought a camping stove to cater for the next power cut. Had to cook my breakfast in the wood burner, and drink lukewarm coffee yesterday. I suppose I'm lucky to have such luxuries as a wood burner and breakfast. If the elites have their way we will all shiver and live off bugs and the flesh of freedom lovers. My friend (in her 70s) has just "done the right thing" and got a new boiler. Her monthly bill went from @£45 to £300. So she has shut it off and now huddles round an oil fired radiator in one room.

lilith said...

I mean an electric (oil) radiator

lilith said...

Why haven't the Government decried Australia's policy of locking people up and CHARGING them for their stay in concentration camps? Prince Charles (as a mate of Klaus) obviously is loving it, but everyone else? C'mon people. This isn't about a disease with a 0.03% fatality rate, or a vaccine that gives 95% relative risk reduction and a 1% ACTUAL risk reduction (Pfizer's own figures) or they would have locked us up over HIV or the 2017 flu or perhaps more pertinently, diabetes.

DJK said...

lilith: If your friend's heating bill increased by x6 then she has been very poorly advised. Electricity is about four times gas, per kWh. But some of the gas heat is lost up the chimney, especially for an older boiler. So there is something seriously wrong if cost has increased by a factor of six in a new installation. Does the £300pcm include amortisation of the new boiler?

lilith said...

I don't know Don. But she is a smart lady, Girton Girl, who is not afraid to stand up for her consumer rights, so I'd be surprised if she hasn't complained that it is faulty, whether it is or not. Given electricity prices have all but doubled I don't think a 6 x increase is that wild.

E-K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
E-K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Elby the Beserk said...

As Paul Gosselin notes, Germany has gone mad

https://notrickszone.com/2021/11/28/slow-disaster-playing-out-as-germany-moves-to-shut-down-8-5-gw-of-baseload-nuclear-capacity/

In just over a month, Germany will close 3 of its newest and best nuclear power plants and more than 4050 MW of electricity will disappear from northern Europe’s power grid. 4050 MW is equivalent to the average electricity consumption of all of Denmark.

It will put supply security further under pressure and them choosing to do so in the middle of winter is pretty crazy.
Not only will the 4050 MW of shut off nuclear power lead to more CO2 emissions, but it will cause much more pollution from the burning of biomass and fossil fuels. Next winter, Germany will close the last 3 nuclear power plants, also 4000 MW.

Anyone who has followed the energy and climate political debate, even superficially, over the last 10-20 years can see that Germany, Denmark and other ‘green crazy countries’ are doing it vigorously AGAINST what logic and science dictates.

We see a slow disaster playing out with The Greens in the lead role as the crazy villain, hell-bent in their eagerness to wipe out life and prosperity.

(PS. Buy warm clothes, food, water and candles, for the coming winter).”

E-K said...

Apologies to Nick for hijacking this thread (yet again ! The issue is of fundamental economic importance though.)

My dear dear Lilith.

I read a horrific stat. 2/3rds of hospital admissions with Covid are unvaccinated.

If only they'd had the jabs. We'd be out of this crisis by now. And I wouldn't have to be fronting it out and taking dirty looks as an anti-masker... for which I think there is a much more logical foundation.

Oh well.

At least masks give Boris a sop to give the lockdown headbangers to buy some time, and the teaching unions who are already salivating at the idea of an extended Christmas break and are preemptively locking down their schools (the first time we've had secondary picketing - private sector mum trapped at home - before the public sector strike has been called.)

Not ONE person has been hospitalised with the Comi-con variant. Not anywhere in the world. The severest symptom is a cough and a runny nose. Even Prof Whitty says he's not worried about it.

But this is what SAGE and the Blob were waiting for ... "New Variant !"

I told you nearly two years ago that this is how it would go. This is NOT temporary. Look at who gets the power to see why it's happening.

And I may be called the whiner but do you know what is most terrifying for me ? That I'm in such a small minority of whiners here.

This is how it happens.

This is how tyranny takes over a civilised country.

Elby the Beserk said...

Oh and while we are at it, the doc who discovered the Omicron terror death mutation says it is very mild, like a bad cold. The media seems not to have caught on to this. Or the Prime Idiot and his gang

https://dailysceptic.org/2021/11/28/u-k-may-be-panicking-unnecessarily-over-omicron-variant-says-doctor-who-discovered-it/

Elby the Beserk said...

Speaking of the teaching unions...this is an interesting look at how the unions have bullied the Prime Idiot into backing down on more or less every reasonable approach to Covid.


https://whistleblowerphilosopher.blogspot.com/2021/08/the-unions-and-u-turns.html

"This is an essay about the driving role that public sector unions have played during the coronapanic debacle in Britain. It’s a long essay, but I hope you’ll stay with me, because the topic is extremely important.

I’m going to reveal to you some shocking incidents that you may not know about. For instance, you may not know that the first lockdown was set in motion the day after the largest teaching union threatened unilateral schools closures. Or that numerous teaching unions refused to return to work during the first lockdown. Or that, in the summer of 2020, a transport workers union threatened to strike unless the government mandated masks on trains. Or that, in the same summer, a retail workers union threatened to strike unless the government mandated masks in shops. Or that the third lockdown happened the day after there was a colossal teaching mutiny with hundreds of thousands of teachers refusing to return to work in January 2021. Or that the reason why children have been cruelly masked in schools was that mutinous teaching unions demanded it. And these are just some of the known incidents of unions making demands or threats; I will also reveal a huge amount of circumstantial evidence on this matter."

lilith said...

E-K, yet in Belgium we had a doctor telling us that all his ICU admissions were vaccinated. It offers little to no protection (as noted earlier, 1% actual risk reduction). As I get hives from just about everything I'm not prepared to risk anaphylaxis from a jab for a disease that will not kill me. The scared can stay home and do something about their carbohydrate addiction if the want to. These jabs are clearly not entirely safe. The ONS stats of people who have died from all causes includes people who are vaccinated as "Unvaccinated" if they died within 28 days of the first jab! Cardiomyopathy all round!! I am planning to deregister from the NHS and take my chances. I'm not cool with Harvey Weinstein approach to medicine.

lilith said...

Sorry to divert from energy to the bloody virus again. Nobody seems to care about the people who can't work from home/earn no money if they can't work. The collateral damage. So much "I'm alright Jack" around.

Matt said...

@ Elby

That blog is certainly interesting and I can see how the leftist blob might force a weak Boris to capitulate. But at the end of the day he had one trump card - to not pay public sector workers who didn't perform their jobs. Yes, it would likely mean an initial strike but the majority of them would have given up pretty quickly and returned to work. Even if it took a while, we'd have been no worse off bearing in mind they did nothing throughout the lockdowns anyway.

lilith said...

I miss Raedwald

Don Cox said...

Raedwald is indeed greatly missed.

Elby is quite right about the Germans being crazy to shut down their nuclear power. stations, instead of building more. Perhaps the mining industry and miners' unions are the drivers of this policy ?

Over the next few decades the countries with the most nuclear power will be the most prosperous.

Don Cox

BlokeInBrum said...

Maybe, maybe not.
I seem to remember a CU post about the French wishing to spread the costs of decomissioning their many nuclear power plants amongst the rest of the EU.

Anonymous said...

EK Can I join the whiners club?
M.

Nick Drew said...

BlokeInBrum - indeed you do, and it's a very early one too: 2007 !

http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2007/07/this-if-big-one.html

At the time this was a bit of analysis, but EDF have pretty much said it explicitly now. You read it here first ...