Monday 3 January 2022

Predictions game 2022

 So for this year, more free form for the predictions game.

The four topics for consideration are UK Politics, Global Politics, Macro Economics and Covid.

Make a prediction for the development of each of these, plus one bonus as a tie breaker.

Get started in the comments!

For me, in UK politics Boris will survive the year somehow, in global politics Russia will not invade Ukraine directly but engineer a civil war of some sort and perhaps then take a police action. In macro economics inflation will fade in some products as goods and trade recover, but remain high as energy costs drive it like the oil crisis of the 1970’s. Covid will be with us, Omicron signalling the end for a nice spring and summer but the autumn will see a new variant. As my bonus, Northern Ireland will cause huge Brexit issues and a desperate Boris will invoke Article 16 as a way to try to drag both the EU and the US into a new round of negotiations. 


Elby the Beserk said...

God help us if Boris lasts another year. There'll be nothing left of the country.

Off topic (as so often), this is extraordinary. Or not, if you have been following events closely. So extraordinary I have capitalised it


Currently unavailable without VPN as they think we are still in the EU and EEA.

(The Center Square) – The head of Indianapolis-based insurance company OneAmerica said the death rate is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels among working-age people.

“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business – not just at OneAmerica,” the company’s CEO Scott Davison said during an online news conference this week. “The data is consistent across every player in that business.”

OneAmerica is a $100 billion insurance company that has had its headquarters in Indianapolis since 1877. The company has approximately 2,400 employees and sells life
insurance, including group life insurance to employers in the state.

Davison said the increase in deaths represents “huge, huge numbers,” and that’s it’s not elderly people who are dying, but “primarily working-age people 18 to 64” who are the employees of companies that have group life insurance plans through OneAmerica.

“And what we saw just in third quarter, we’re seeing it continue into fourth quarter, is that death rates are up 40% over what they were pre-pandemic,” he said.

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

Davison was one of several business leaders who spoke during the virtual news conference on Dec. 30 that was organized by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce.

Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths, Davison said

And VAERS in the USA has just clocked up ONE MILLION Vax injuries. It is accepted that as few as 1 in 30 incidents are actually reported.

You can do the maths... as you can for 21,000+ DEATHS

Only 1700 dead in the UK. Hold on. MHRA have publicly stated that 10% at most ADRs are reported.

Again. You can do the maths.

You won't hear any of this from the BBC or any normal media, but I cannot see how we can ignore these figures.

Something terrible is happening. In front of our very eyes.

jim said...

Yes, Boris will survive 2022, keep one's powder dry till 2023.

Russia will not invade and neither will there be civil war.

Agree inflation will decline in flim flam products but rise in more serious products and in energy. But even those two inflation will not be too severe.

Omicron and other variants will continue to come and go throughout the year. The ancient plagues lasted centuries, no respite until everyone is vaccinated.

NI will rumble on but remain muted, the long term plan not matured yet.

lilith said...

Unvaccinated will be excluded from society just as Covid becomes indistinguishable from the common cold.

Severe care crisis as unvaccinated carers are replaced by Albanian gangsters

People rush for their 4th booster, unaware that it will make them statistically even more likely to die prematurely

Concentration camps for the unvaxxed will cause outrage and Boris will go, only to be replaced by more restrictive, power crazed PM.

Hancock back in the Cabinet

Deaf people will be permanently excluded from society as masks become mandatory for all including babies.

Massive excess deaths, but not from Covid. Despair, vaccine injury, undiagnosed life threatening conditions will soar. Huge shortage of medical personnel. Only the vaxxed will have video access to GPs.

1000s of businesses fail due to restrictions and public fear

Lengthy power cuts. People regularly lose the contents of their freezers.

More kids stabbing other kids randomly

Prince Andrew and Harry will destroy the Monarchy assisted by awareness that the Queen herself chose to knight Blair: everybody will become republican.

Meat will be taxed like petrol and everybody will become anaemic and psychovegan with autoimmune issues.

Man City will win the League.

Nick Drew said...

UK politics - somebody on the Left will launch an attempt at a genuinely damaging attack on Starmer: but he'll do well in the local elections

Global - the US Democrats will seriously start to panic as the Mid-Terms loom, contributing to Biden dropping a major bollock vis-a-vis China & Russia, giving them even more scope for their malicious global designs

Macro - nobody knows how "macroeconomics" works (circumspice!) so I'll say the US authorities fiscal do something very inept (but it won't be their fault, because, ...)

Covid - the Year of Going Endemic

Bonus - the Year of Blockchain: not a currency development (though crypto currencies will prosper) but a Killer Blockchain App will break through

OT, because it's not a prediction, it's a cert; 2022 will be a year when the contradictions in energy policy will truly make themselves felt

Matt said...

UK Politics - Covid-19 public enquiry will find that despite the government (or perhaps more specifically, the public sector) response been completely useless, no one could have foreseen this and so no one to blame. This despite the Cygnus pandemic simulation demonstrating what was required years ago.

Macro Economics - The Chinese (Communist Party) will screw up the winding down of the likes of Evergrande and seriously damage their economy but impoverishing the poor and newly middle class.

Global Politics - Pooh Bear (Xi) will try it on with Taiwan to deflect attention from the financial carnage at home and have his arse handed to him. This will lead to a new leader being put in place.

Covid - New variants, all of which will be weaker than the last, will be used by the blob (public sector, unions, prodnoses etc) as an excuse to carry on the current clusterfuck for at least the next 12 months.

Bonus - The US stock market (or at least the tech giants) will have a poor year and the FTSE will do well - but only because all the best companies are acquisition targets for US money.

dearieme said...

Stuff will happen. Fans will be struck. Books will be provided with turn ups.

People will approach the headwaters of Scheissecreek in a paddle-free modality.

Boris will remain bewildered, his hair bewilded, and his backbone bejellied.

The contest between people who want to keep the COVID hysteria going and people who want to Keep Calm and Carry On may or may not be resolved. Personally I think that several people in the first group would be nane the waur o' a hingin'.

andrew said...

UK Politics
Labour finally seen as realistic alternative govt (due to Con incompetance)
Increased scrutiny from MSM triggers infighting
**Lab lead evaporates so parties are level in Dec 22**

Global Politics
Lots of shouting and gesturing around Taiwan and Ukraine.
Nothing much happens there.
Lots of greentalk from developed countries
Nothing much happens.
Humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan / Yemen / Bangladesh
Nothing much happens.
Something bad in Africa
Nothing much happens.

*nothing much will happen (well, lots happens, just nothing that cuts through to actually trigger US / EU / NATO action even if it should)*

Macro Economics
*Chinese builders and shadow banks collapse, nothing much happens*
Bonds / Equities crater around the world.
Chinese govt seizes a *lot* of assets, sells t bills and indulges in QE, currency falls, US cries foul, Chinese say 'doing what you have been doing, but competantly'
Bonds / Equities recover.

The next variant is less harmful
*One of the US states passes a 'pro-anti-vaxx' law*

bonus as a tie breaker.

James Webb telescope will work, will produce lovely pics and results that agree with the standard model in 2022 (it is only getting started)

Jan said...

In UK politics the Tory banckbenchers are beginning to make their presence felt and this will increase in 2022 so that their influence means covid gently slides in importance and testing/mask wearing will become things of the past. Maybe the BBC will desist in their incessant fearmongering and gradually stop pumping out the daily covid numbers etc. I also think Boris will survive.

The government will try to get us frightened about something else eg the Ukraine situation and maybe ramp up their verbal attacks on Putin who will survive as the main bogeyman in world politics. He will be blamed for high gas prices and probably a few other things to boot.

In macroeconomics the prices of energy stocks ie coal/oil/gas will continue to rise, the best of these most likely gazprom. People will move their money out of green funds and government bonds.

Turkey will continue to be a turkey and there could even be a revolution and change of leader which will destabilise the middle east even further.

Biden will survive until he's no longer useful so difficult to predict.

AndrewZ said...

UK Politics:
(a) Half-hearted Tory attempts to control illegal immigration thwarted by activist judges and lawyers, but no decisive moment of crisis yet
(b) Energy prices become established as a key political issue for the next few years
(c) Big increase in green propaganda in the media, followed by more revelations like this:

International Politics:
(a) Houthi rebels do significant damage to a major Saudi military or civilian target, probably using drones, so Yemeni civil war hots up, humanitarian crisis follows
(b) El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment causes an economic and political crisis due to widespread theft/fraud from insecure state crypto wallets
(c) High gas prices impact artificial fertilizer production in Western Europe, pushing up food prices and then more general inflation, protectionist EU affected more than UK

Macro Economics:
(a) Lots more irresponsible borrowing and spending everywhere
(b) China’s economic growth continues to slow as catch-up growth ends and it struggles to avoid the middle-income trap

(a) Restrictions end in the UK, because the public starts to accept it as something that we have to live with and the government doesn’t want to risk widespread unrest
(b) England fully unlocks well before Scotland and Wales
(c) From winter 2022, annual COVID shots are offered alongside the annual flu vaccine

SpaceX Starship brings economies of scale to the launch market, offering prices under $500 per kilogram to low Earth orbit by end of 2022 (Elon Musk has suggested $10 - $20 as the long-term goal)

Al said...

UK Politics: The images of young Scots heading over the border to avoid (what turn out to be meaningless) restrictions will be the start of a growing backlash against the SNP.
Boris will survive (in part due to riding this backlash).
NI will remain as an unsatisfactory stalemate but will fade in to the background of the public conscience.
Labour will become more capable, the conservatives will achieve nothing new in policy terms.
The UK will sign up to a joint refugee processing agreement with another country.

Global Politics:
China will become increasing concerned with the state of its economy (Evergrande).
The US will posit the idea of Covid reparations from China, possibly by the cancellation of developing world debt owed to China.
Russia will back down on Ukraine and Nordstream2 will be completed.

Macro Economics and Covid
The Euro will start to tank (due to the huge relative debt levels) and Italy will start to prosper as reforms by Mario Draghi kick in.
Omicron will wash through the world with over 90% of the world's population having anti-bodies of some sort.
The macroeconomic crisis at the end of 2022 will be around how to pay for the costs associated with climate change.

hkwoodyintokyo said...

UK Politics.
Johnson's survival in 2022 will depend on the course of Covid. Once it's clear the worst is behind us the Conservatives will see him for what he now is, an electoral liability. He'll be gone in 2022 to be replaced by Truss.
Global Politics.
Xi will become ever more desperate to distract the population from domestic issues - energy prices, low growth, property price crash amongst them. He won't invade Taiwan but will kill a chicken somewhere in the South China Sea to scare the monkey that is Taiwan / Biden.
Due to a lack of investment as a result of greening and ESG energy prices will continue to rise to levels that will see US, German and UK inlation end the year above 5%.
Will to all intents and purposes be gone. Future variants will be more mild than Omicron.
Tie Breaker.
Erdogan will be overthrown in Turkey.

Caeser Hēméra said...

UK Politics

Greater Manchester’s Clear Air Zone will be something to watch, expect panjandrums from that.

Boris to be gone by summer, finally done in by the expose of an affair after a torrid Spring with rising energy bills. The by-election will be won by the shiny new Lib-Dem candidate, Carrie Symonds.

The leave/remain aspects of the Tories show Labours further Left how to really do a vicious internal dispute in the following leadership campaign. Javid will probably get it.

Matt Hancock to really ramp up trying to convince the world to see him as he himself does, including a tilt at Tory leadership and appearance on any TV show that will have him. His appearance as a contestant on Naked Attraction will be useful, as the horror will force the entire UK population to deny 2022 ever happened.

As for Keir Starmer

If you can't see anything after 'Starmer' in the preceding paragraph, that's because your brain has replaced any words with blank spaces. That's how vacuous he is. And his year will be too.

Angela Rayner on the other hand, will initially have a barnstormer as inflation and energy bills head north, interest rates following, NHS waiting lists expanding, and we might finally get a real dint in house prices as everyone on a variable rate gets a shock. Her gob will eventually send her, Icarus style, crashing downwards, as it somehow manages to be both bigger and hotter than the sun.

Global Politics

Moscow and Beijing won't synchronise invasions, but each will await the other to do something so they can use it as a cover. So if it kicks off this year, it'll be due to some Thick of It level misunderstanding that'd be funny in fiction, less so in reality.

I give it a 50/50 chance of a Putin "Police Action" being badly misread by Beijing, leading to lots of places deciding chaos in the Pacific to be very good cover for resetting the board. One of the places will be Iran, thinking they'll have a free hand, at least up until they discover Israel thought the same thing first.

The Midterms in the US will be horrific for the Democrats, centrists glad to see the back of Trump, will now want to see the back of the Culture Warriors. A lot of people will see it as code for them regretting getting rid of Trump, when in actual fact it’s regret that all the adults, regardless of party affiliation, with their marbles intact appear to have left politics. When the closest thing you have to an adult is Joe Biden, a man who makes Reagan's last term with his brain Swiss-cheesed with dementia, look vibrant, bright and verbally on the ball, you're really exploring what comes after deep shit.

Tribalism will increase, ideologues will ideologue and politics will become increasingly deranged.

Germany to discover riding three different horses simultaneously only works if all three horses are heading in the same direction.


China will drop some plates, and a bollock, with Evergrande. The size of said bollock will determine if the global markets hiccup, have a Lehmans moment or make Lehmans look like a hiccup.

The Metaverse to hole Facebook/Meta below the waterline as it turns out nobody outside of middle management, marketing or shit pop musicians give a twopenny fuck about wearing annoying, unwieldy and pricey headsets, just so Bob from Accounts can appear in meetings as Barney the Dinosaur because he's such a "character". The listing ship will then be hit by regulatory torpedoes from pretty much every government on the planet.

Lots of idiots will buy NFTs and new cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, Etherium to remain the rollercoaster ride of buy low/sell high for a little longer.


New variants to appear, but nothing major. European nations will overreact, UK will chug along.

Anomalous Cowshed said...

Given how spectacularly badly I fared for the 2021 predictions (belated congratulations to E-K), and being a sucker for punishment, 'ere we go;

(Covid casts something of a long shadow here)

UK Politics.

I don't see too much change, really. Boris probably isn't under too much real pressure at the moment, with most of the speculation being engineered by those MPs who didn't want him back in 2016 anyway.

Covid raises it's ugly mush in how the devolved Welsh and Scottish governments might continue to diverge from policy in England. But I don't see a mechanism for an immediate effect during 2022. Brexit/NI is probably most likely to kick off, but politics there are different from the mainland, where no-one really gives a shit. And whatever happens in the French elections in April, and what Macron might get up to.

So, come April, I'm going to plump for something of a sea-change in attitudes to policies regarding climate change. First, once the weather improves, the nerks at Insulate Britain or Extinction Rebellion might kick off again. Someone might take a proper kicking before Plod can be arsed to turn up, as this'll be coming off the back of the winter's high energy prices.

To which end, by the summer, fracking will obviously be back on the policy table. The most likely fields run in an L-shape from the North-West down to the south coast then east, then off into Belgium. Economic activity there will probably do more for the Northern Powerhouse than pissing about with the railways.

Global Politics.

Sticking with Erdogan doing something stupid and everyone getting dragged in around the Black Sea (Putin might sense a viable excuse here) or the Eastern Med.

Global Macro.

Inflation won't ease as much as anticipated over the year. So, tightening monetary policy all over. The two oddities - the Euro and the USD. USD weakness if the Democrats continue to spunk money up the wall, plus some political stances taken by the US Treasury in the AUKUS region. The Euro is the Euro and the ECB is kind of buggered as no fiscal union underlying the monetary one.

Covid - another major variant, may be out of India, and a further global wave. Lower hospitalisations and mortality. Further development of both treatments and vaccines, individual states continue to effectively lockdown.

Bonus - one of the tech entrepreneurs manages to do something stupid with global political consequences. Musk would be the obvious choice 'cos it's already happened with Starlink, but I'll settle on Zuckerberg.

AndrewZ said...

"Someone might take a proper kicking"

That raises a very important question, but it's OT so I'm just flagging it as something that this blog ought to explore properly on a post and comments thread of its own instead of this one.

The Very Important Question: are the greens looking for a martyr?

I'm sure that the smug middle-class idiots gluing themselves to roads aren't trying to die for their cause. But images of an idealistic, photogenic young activist getting run over by a big, polluting car or beaten to a pulp by a mob would be absolute gold dust in propaganda terms. Even better if said activist isn't still around to say or do anything that might contradict whatever image is built up around him or her.

Is that the real reason why the cynical political operators in the left-green movement encourage the kinds of "direct action" that are most likely to provoke a violent reaction from the general public?

Nick Drew said...

Anom Cowshed - sorry to hear of your long shadow, I know what you mean

AC & AZ - "proper kicking"/martyr - yes the green tactics / violence thing has some interesting potential developments. But (per the post below) I'd say it's more likely some of them will be the perps: prob aimed against property, but unintended consequences are the name of the game

Elby the Beserk said...

"Nick Drew said...
UK politics - somebody on the Left will launch an attempt at a genuinely damaging attack on Starmer: but he'll do well in the local elections"

Starmer himself, probably. Man's an idiot

"This morning Labour published a “Dossier of Waste in the Ministry of Defence 2010 – 2021“, which attempts to show how the government wasted £13 billion over the past decade on defence spending. A damning revelation… except roughly half that figure is drawn from two projects commissioned and primarily managed by Labour themselves the last time they were in government…

The first, the Nimrod aircraft project, was in fact cancelled by the coalition in 2010 after 13 years of delays under New Labour had seen costs balloon to £3.7 billion – as cited in Labour’s own report today. The report also claims that the second project – the Queen Elizabeth Carrier – wasted £2.7 billion over several years. £1.6 billion of which, according to a National Audit Office report, came from Gordon Brown’s decision to delay it…

After reading the briefing, Labour also has a questionable definition of ‘waste’: apparently the MoD’s Reaper drone programme, which is still used in the Middle East, constitutes “waste“, yet so does the retirement of the 30-year-old Sentry aircraft. Either equipment needs to be replaced, or it doesn’t. Labour can’t seem to make up their mind.

Of course, the report conveniently ignores the fact that the National Audit Office found that by the time Labour left office, defence projects were £35 billion over-budget. “The Ministry of Defence has a multi-billion pound budgetary black hole which it is trying to fix with a ‘save now, pay later'”, it said…"

Elby the Beserk said...

Nick Drew said...
Macro - nobody knows how "macroeconomics" works (circumspice!) so I'll say the US authorities fiscal do something very inept (but it won't be their fault, because, ...)

Anyone out there know about this?

Interestingly I was reading wherever that Covid seemed to happen just in time to ward off another massive crash. This would seem to suggest that that is the case.

Elby the Beserk said...

Jan said...
In UK politics the Tory banckbenchers are beginning to make their presence felt and this will increase in 2022 so that their influence means covid gently slides in importance and testing/mask wearing will become things of the past. Maybe the BBC will desist in their incessant fearmongering and gradually stop pumping out the daily covid numbers etc. I also think Boris will survive.

It has been pointed out in a few places that Covid won't end till the media drop it. Given that said media are treating Omicron (aka the common cold) as it were the first release of Covid, and given that Covid seems to be the political classes wet dream, I'd say we are WAY off that. The BBC is now the British Covid Corporation and the NHS the National Covid Service (clearly, only Covid deaths now matter -

Whilst I'm here, the MHRA figures for Pfeizer, Dec 9 to 15 show 128 deaths from post vax Cardiac problems). Swine Flu jab was stopped after 49 deaths.

I inquired way back from the MHRA how many deaths would it take for the campaign to stop. No figure was provided. PM's office, to the same request, said "eff off".

Response to petition to review vax safety. Clearly, any number of deaths is acceptable (C17k now). God knows how many thanks to lockdown - see video linked to above, short clip here -

"The MHRA has authorised COVID-19 vaccine supply following a rigorous review of their safety, quality and efficacy. The clinical trials of the vaccines have shown them to be effective and acceptably safe; however, as part of its statutory functions, the MHRA continually monitors the use of the vaccines to ensure their benefits continue to outweigh any risks. This is a requirement for all authorised medicines and vaccines in the UK. This monitoring strategy is continuous, proactive and based on a wide range of information sources, with a dedicated team of scientists reviewing information daily to look for safety issues or unexpected events.

Elby the Beserk said...

My sole prediction?

Things will go from bad to worse.

Elby the Beserk said...

AndrewZ said...
UK Politics:

"Dear Melanie Dawes,

We are writing to alert you to a broadcast license complaint we have made about Sky U.K. Our complaint concerns a partnership between Sky and Behavioural Insights U.K., Known as the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), a limited company that was partly owned by the Government at the time the report was published. We believe this partnership – and, in particular, Sky’s adoption of BIT’s recommendations about how to help the Conservative Government successfully implement one of its most political contentious policy, namely, Net Zero – contravenes the Broadcasting Code."

Elby the Beserk said...

AndrewZ said...

SpaceX Starship brings economies of scale to the launch market, offering prices under $500 per kilogram to low Earth orbit by end of 2022 (Elon Musk has suggested $10 - $20 as the long-term goal)

Some good news! At c80Kg that's £600 to £1200 for THAT bucket list item :-)

Anomalous Cowshed said...

VIQ : Nah, they don't think like that because they don't need to.

Elby the Beserk said...

UK Politics

As for Keir Starmer

If you can't see anything after 'Starmer' in the preceding paragraph, that's because your brain has replaced any words with blank spaces. That's how vacuous he is. And his year will be too

Old readers may remember the footballer Len Shackleton, from the Brylcreem days of sportsmen (think Denis Compton, from the days when we still had test batsmen)

"Shackleton retired in 1957, succumbing to a long-standing ankle injury on the opening day of the season. He went on to become a sports journalist, and his autobiography famously featured a chapter on the average director’s knowledge of football, consisting of one pointedly blank page."

aka - "This page left intentionally blank...)

Elby the Beserk said...

Anomalous Cowshed said...
UK Politics.

I don't see too much change, really. Boris probably isn't under too much real pressure at the moment, with most of the speculation being engineered by those MPs who didn't want him back in 2016 anyway.

As long as he ignores the polling. I know of nobody who would vote for him again.

Elby the Beserk said...

Greens? Reds?

Well the EU are clearly so worried by their energy status that they have declared natural gas to be "green". Perhaps their first energy related decision that is linked to the real world.

Will we do the same? You must be having a larf...

The European Commission is facing a furious backlash over plans to allow gas and nuclear to be labelled as “green” investments, as Germany’s economy minister led the charge against “greenwashing”.

The EU executive was accused of trying to bury the proposals by releasing long-delayed technical rules on its green investment guidebook to diplomats on New Year’s Eve, hours before a deadline expired.

The draft proposals seen by the Guardian would allow gas and nuclear to be included in the EU “taxonomy of environmentally sustainable economic activities”, subject to certain conditions.

Anomalous Cowshed said...

ND - hadn't seen that post. But Total's a French firm. Greenpeace might not have a long enough memory to remember what happens if you piss them off.

Jan said...

Elby.......yes I must have been in a good mood when I wrote my predictions for 2022!! It's probably all wishful thinking. Anyway I thought you might like this:

Anonymous said...

"The images of young Scots heading over the border to avoid (what turn out to be meaningless) restrictions will be the start of a growing backlash against the SNP"

On the other hand I know 2 junior hospital doctors who had covid symptoms, failed lateral flows, and yesterday had to drive from England to Newport in South Wales to get PCR tested (covid confirmed today).

Absolutely insane that there were no PCR tests available in England yesterday.

Bill Quango MP said...

What a spectacularly entertaining set of predictions.
Love them.


Boris. Here for the year. Will have successes. And fewer failures. Backbencher rumblings and voter discontent being taken more seriously after the by-election shock.

Global politics. The more Macron fears he might struggle, the more things he doesn’t believe, he says he now does. Gets caught out promising to deliver something he has been secretly filmed saying he will never do and it’s only to placate Les Deplorables.
The far right begin to look plausible and really scare the EU. Until they implode and Macron wins.

Culture. Some hippies topple the statue of Nelson and claim it is not against the law. Causes outrage and dismay and joy. And a huge political problem for everyone. Police violently arrest all the pensioner vigilante statue protectors that gather around Churchill’s statue. Which is then vandalised.

The Christmas Soccer World Cup will be a failure.

Covid. Still around. Still boosting. Still sort of locking down. MPs start proposing permanent covid related legislation. Opening windows in public buildings. Only pre registration for large scale public sport and social events

Cash use declines further until a cash machine becomes as rare a sight as an open bank branch.

Inflation is only going one way. The bad one. Even all the data manipulation and reclassifying and disguising and minimal VAT removal can’t hide an official 7% level.

China and Russia both make bold land grab plans with a secret nod to each other over spheres of influence and ambitions.
Then both pull back. Fearing the other is goading them into a trap.

Brexit continues to cause difficulties. Boris, sensing a way back to populist PM, finally gets tough with the EU. Makes a stirring, patriotic speech, not dissimilar to the Love Actually one. Our ‘ friends must be friends.’
Starmer’s new found ‘Britain First’ act is unsustainable. Rayner becomes a genuine threat to him.


None of this happens.
Everything works out just fine.

Don Cox said...

"Everything works out just fine."

It usually does in the long run. The worst thing that has happened to England was the Norman invasion. But after a few hundred years the effects had largely faded away.

I agree with the theory that the universe is continuously splitting into different possible universes, so that everything that can happen will happen in one future or another. So it's best not to make predictions of things other than times of sunrise/sunset and the like (which are just descriptions of the shapes of continuous processes.

Happy New Year !!

Don Cox

Suff said...

With the politicisation of everything and someone from XR having stolen all the levers of a functioning free market democracy, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to predict anything. I’m hoping for a backlash and return to normality but with the Overton Window placed firmly in the lunacy camp I’m expecting a double down from the psychopaths in charge. With every tinfoil hat conspiracy coming true in 2021, for fun, I’m gonna predict the most idiotic things I can think of and hope none of them come true.

New variants will arise each weaker than the previous and all ignoring vaccine status and previous infection. The latest being the itchy bum variant from Mexico. Moderna say they just happen to have a test patented in 2004, which gouges under the fingernail and can detect if someone has scratched their arse in the last 12 months. They can make the daily test available for 200 bucks a pop. Anybody who has a positive test, ever, will be classed as a covid death.
Vaccine number 8 made mandatory by summer and children under 12 must wear the new “fun” Darth Vader full helmet to attend on line teaching from there own bedroom.
Vaccine passport to be aligned with the new digital currency. To be used for all financial transactions. Microsoft and Amazon say it’s a lot of work and not really worth the effort to include SMEs in this new exciting future and besides, one man bands and family businesses don’t employ enough minorities to qualify.
Vaccine Passport to be aligned with the citizens carbon footprint on a social credit system ( to tackle the climate catastrophe). Depending on your domestic car use and meat consumption. Fully vaxed individuals can enjoy one flight abroad a year ( non transferable and return flight not included). These restrictions will not include people on vital government climate business or people using private jets or spacecraft.
The unvaxed will be invited to holiday at one of the new five star covid resorts ( formerly the new super prisons, they were building for some reason?). Between the educational seminars, guests can enjoy, walks around the yard or asbestos weaving crafts. Three roast meals a day will be on offer, prepared with care, in the huge ovens in the adjacent building. Book early and avoid the rush. Prices start at your family house and all your possessions.

UK politics
Boris declares he will stay on until the vax pass rolled out. When asked about its purpose he replied “ well we’ve already spunked, I mean heavily invested in this great new technology and without it, what would have been the point of the sacrifices the great British public have made over the last two years and to be honest my chums would be really pissed off and my pension depends on it.”
Queer Stammer gives an opinion on something. Unnoticed by the general public, he gets royally raped ( pun Intended) on twatter, apologies and agrees to never have an opinion on anything
Lego Head north of the border tries a female hairstyle for a change.

global politics
Biden has a landslide victory in the midterms after taking Macrons lead and saying all unvaxed are non citizens and therefore not entitled to vote. All voters must have had at least 6 shots to qualify and the sixth shot priority list is for non whites and people of minorities ( true story on the current booster).This rule will not apply to the millions of new citizens we’ve been trucking in over the southern border because
A) they can’t get the vax because, as refugees, they are not covered under the non liability agreement the government has with big pharma and could lead to legal cases on adverse effects.
B) Cos that would be racist stupid.

Suff said...

continued- I got a bit carried away

With the launch of the digital currency and the loss of tax income from the general economy to the offshore accounts of the rich and famous. The blob has only one option to be fed. Let inflation rip and green tax the public till the pips squeak.
Fuel prices to carry on increasing as more of the French nuclear fleet is mothballed loosing base load capacity. To offset this Germany announce that all lignite is to be sprayed with Schweinfurt pigment before burning to allow it to be included in the EU green fuel initiative.
Food price inflation after the mothballing of fertiliser production.
Life Insurance and private medical insurance sky rocket as NHS backlog for non covid medical care finally comes home to roost and overwhelms the system. Feminist groups say a blanket increase in life Insurance costs is sexist as the 40% increase in all cause mortality is mainly in young healthy men.
House price crash as the demand side reduction in working age buyers reduces and the supply side is flooded by people going on the government covid camp option.

Men in tights win all female sports competitions and smash all the records.

Bill Quango MP said...

Stuff. Very entertaining. And very undesirable predictions.

So I fully expect all of those predictions you raise to be true in 2022.

Bill Quango MP said...



Suff said...

Thanks Bill. I hope come last place with negative points. Please restart your history posts. They were a welcome break from the current hysteria

Anonymous said...

You are implying causation rather than simply correlation between high vaccination numbers and excess deaths. Davison himself doesn't make this link, instead positing that the cause of the excess deaths is either misclassification of Covid deaths, illness possibly triggered by long Covid or people not seeking healthcare because of fear of Covid. He doesn't know and neither do I, perhaps you're right, however you're deliberately misrepresenting what he said to support your own theory.

E-K said...

In political terms the Left wins (against the majority. Colston/BBC)

In economic terms the Right wins (but only for a tiny minority - Super Yacht class.)

This applies to UK and global issues.

China gets stronger and stronger. India too. Deservedly so. We get poorer and poorer.

Masks are forever. The People will demand it. (fools !)

Boris flirting with Rayner. The ultimate tabloid blue vs red shit with tits on it and people will suck it up. And Boris will survive (fools !)

Covid. The gift that keeps on giving to shirkers and the Left.

E-K said...

As for what China or Russia does next.

It all depends on hypersonic missile technology @ mach X speed (East) vs laser technology @ light speed (West). And most of it is bluff (as it always has been.)

For once I hope that generals and not politicians are in charge.

I felt a lot safer under Trump than I do Biden.


This year. The emergence of autonomous robot soldiers (in the form of robotic dogs)

More viral variants - bio terrorism but unidentified as such (deliberately unidentified as before.) Do we not realise what mayhem can be caused by means of the tiniest of vials broken on city tube networks now ?

Our reactions to disease have been far worse than the diseases themselves. And it has empowered our enemies. Also the unions and the NHS into actions way beyond '70s disputes - replete with enforced secondary picketing via the schools. Our bins are piled high here... the only things that aren't piled high are the bodies... which is curious during a so called plague, don't you think ?

This power will not be relinquished easily. In fact I don't think the Tories have the guts to take it on at all.

PushingTheBoundaries said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
PushingTheBoundaries said...

Always seem to be late to this...
UK politics
Much the same as this year. Think Mr Gove will refocus towards the last quarter of the year and make some waves for Boris again, perhaps this time the knife will stay and Truss will be there in early 2023 to take the helm.

Global politics
N Korea will start to open up a little more whilst the spotlight remains on China and Russia. Hungary and Poland will lead the charge to remove some of the more overbearing (as they see it) rules within the EU. The new French Right, buoyed by the smell of victory will be in the background cajouling and supporting their efforts.

The mid-African belt of countries will start to cash in the investments made by China's Belt road and with it comes a new confidence to say 'No' to various usurpers past and present.

Macro Economics
The US will make further noises and some overt public action to further reduce the influence of the cryptocurrencies impact on the World banking system. BTC and ETH both end 10% lower than they started the year.

Living in cities becomes fashionable again driving a winners curse in house prices that will persist for this year and the next.

Still here, still mutating. Public apathy reaches new highs after 5th booster programme. Big pharma develop a combined Flu & Covid jab to complement a new integrated campaign for the coming Winter. China tacitly admit that Wuhan lab was the source with the blame target firmly planted on the US and Fauci as the instigators to nullify any large public comeback.

JWTelescope data aids in discovery of at least 5 planets that are very similar to Earth.
At least one astronaut dies in Earth orbit due to space debris related cause.