Monday 21 February 2022

Oh ye of little faith

 Told you all it was 21st Feb.

Hope you all stocked up on oil and gas futures.


DJK said...

Not much market impact so far. I guess that people think the tanks will stop at the borders of the rebel areas and only token sanctions will be applied. I've no idea if that's right or not.

Timbo614 said...

I have to say I'm impressed! Spot on CU (ignore anonymous trying to steal your thunder).
I don't do commodities it's too nerve wracking, in my share strategy so far 2 right choices and 1 wrong :)

Still don't want war it's a sad & messy business :(

Anonymous said...

My informants said 22nd, I guess the important thing was to get the Winter Olympics out of the way. Chinese state media is pretty supportive.

I must say the BBC is toeing the government line big-time, while simultaneously bombarding us with advertorial on how wonderful the BBC is. They must be very worried that Nadine will terminate them with extreme prejudice.

Mr Putin's focus on Ukraine felt obsessive, like a man who thinks about little else...In the story they spun ... Much of Vladimir Putin's speech about Ukraine sounded like a fever dream... Why, he asked, did Nato make an enemy of Russia? The Western alliance certainly never set out to do any such thing. But the Russian leader's broadside underlined, once more, that the Kremlin remains deeply resentful of the way history panned out.

What a bad sport, whinging that he lost the game!

E-K said...

I believed you.

It made perfect sense... the significance of which is that Beijing is pulling Putin's strings.

It is beyond doubt that Putin was told to hold off until this date... one wonders if he'd been nudged into probing the West in the first place as a test for Taiwan.

Well done the EU/Nato ! Decades of abusing Russia is coming home to roost and the possibility of WW3 for all Remainer's claims that the EU flag is a symbol of everlasting peace.


In 1975 - when people voted to join the Common Market - the Iron Curtain was firmly in place and a British official having tea and cakes with Ukrainians in dispute with a Russian President was unthinkable.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile when the Channel waves have moderated the REAL invasion will continue.. and the RNLI will give the invaders a lift, then we'll pay to put them up in hotels, while for Britons the prices climb and the food bank queue gets ever longer. And Boris will be on TV talking about Ukraine.

Don Cox said...

There will be a flood of Ukrainian refugees soon. And if they get to England, they will be killed by Putin's nuclear weapons anyway.

Don Cox

Nick Drew said...

As well as the commodities futures - have you all backed up your cloud-based stuff?

Anonymous said...

What things in particular?

Nick Drew said...

Anon, as a charitable gesture I'm going to spell it out.

If the shit really starts flying, Russia will take down the www

Anonymous said...

The good news is that the American NSA (and perhaps GCHQ too) will have copies of all your cloud data. That was certainly the case when Snowden spilled the beans, it won't have changed.

Bill Quango MP said...

Interesting thought.

Foreign office suggest it is impossible to capture and hold all Ukraine with 120,000 soldiers.

Sounds reasonable. 45 million citizens in Ukraine. Which has been preparing for this day for very many years. Armed and ready.

The most common failure for military occupation is a safe base for the resistance, within a supposedly neutral area, with easy, uninterrupted, resupply of food, munitions, intelligence, training.
The lost of incursions and invasions by countries since WW2 is very long.

The list of invaded, conquered, occupied and held from then on is very small.

Mr Drew would know. Is a total occupation beyond the land grab area, remotely feasible for any length of time?

DJK said...

ND said "If the shit really starts flying, Russia will take down the www"

Why let them stop there? As well as turning off gas supplies to Europe they could shoot down the GPS satellites, and comms satellites too. Perhaps they could sink a few US carrier groups or just nuke NY and DC. If the ordure really starts to fly then not having Google and Facebook might be the least of our worries.

dearieme said...

Last week I was talking to an acquaintance whose old Dad lives in Ukraine close to the border with Russia. He's a Russian: his career in the Soviet Union had taken him to Azerbaijan and eventually Ukraine. He'd like two things.

(i) The border to be moved so that he would be living in Russia.

(ii) This to be achieved without war.

An entirely natural human response, I'd say. If the Americans are so strongly against secession would they like to restore Texas and California to Mexico, please?

P.S. Congrats on the clairvoyance, CU.

Nick Drew said...

@ Is a total occupation beyond the land grab area, remotely feasible for any length of time?

Tibet is the only example that comes readily to mind. Only possible with brutality of a Stalin-esque character, which (notwithstanding Chechnya) seems implausible in Ukr in 2022.

And what Ukraine's got going for it, is material external support (of many kinds) that has no logistical impediments to getting through. As noted in an earlier BTL exchange, the reasons many defenders have outright capitulated, swiftly, in modern times have included "absolutely no hope of holding out anywhere in the long run".

France 1940 is an interesting one to ponder, because they could have fallen back, and relied upon Britain to keep them supplied via Biscay and the Med (the RN crushed the Vichy French fleet and the Italian Navy, after the fall of France). I think the answer lay in an absolutely religious zeal for preserving "La France" (as an entity), and Paris elle-même - without 'damage'.

Because? Well, (sort of) if "France" remained intact, it had sufficient spiritual integrity to survive, even a Nazi occupation. That's the best explanation I can offer. French national psychology is a curious thing (see the Dreyfuss affair: Robert Harris has a very good go at portraying this France-trance religion)

The shadow of 1916 was a long one.

Nick Drew said...

PS, is it in bad taste to mention Hitler and the Sudetenland? I don't see anyone in the MSM writing about this rather obvious parallel. Too near the knuckle for Latvia etc, I guess.

The Finns, incidentally, are incandescent with Biden for referring to "Finlandisation" recently.

Meanwhile, Grandpa Xi watches and waits ...

Old Git Carlisle said...

I have now found one reference to the possible supply of missile technology to North Korea.

There were other ones in the military blogs with supporting images but I can't locate them.

This colours my view on the situation.

Matt said...

Despite all the rhetoric from the media idiots and deep state puppets, has Putin actually put any boots or armour on the ground inside Ukraine?

Anonymous said...

"is it in bad taste to mention Hitler and the Sudetenland?"

It's in bad taste if you're doing the Putin=Hitler thing, as so many others have done. I've seen far more 1938 references though.

I feel sorry that Ukraine is the weapon of US choice for preventing peaceful co-operation between Germany and Russia. It doesn't strike me that forcing Russia and China together is a great long-term move by the US.

After his victory in destroying the USSR via an arms race and the Afghan war, Zbigniew Brzezinski looked towards a weak Russia that could be exploited by US firms for its natural resources. He warned that dominance over Eurasia remained “the central basis for global primacy.” Mackinder was back!

To control that vast region, Washington, he insisted, would have to preserve its “perch on the Western periphery” of Europe and hold its string of “offshore bases” along the Pacific littoral. Should these conditions change, he predicted with some prescience, “a potential rival to America might at some point arise.”

He wrote that in 1998.

DJK said...

AEP in the 'graph is typically pessimistic, but makes some interesting points about critical western dependence on Russia (and Ukraine) for a few, strategic materials. No idea if that's true, but it it is, then we may as well surrender the rest of Ukraine now and have done with it.

dearieme said...

What was the response of the great imperial power of the day to Bismarck's wars of German nationalism? As far as I know the United Kingdom shrugged. It would have been a different matter, I'd think, if he'd made a lunge for the Channel ports. But he didn't.

The question in these matters is always "Is Hitler/Putin/Xi/... a Bismarck or a Napoleon?"

Anonymous said...

Someone has asked the question I asked last night, whether the recognition of these areas is "facts on ground" or full areas.

"Putin: we recognized Donetsk and Luhansk in the borders as described in their constitutions"

In for a kopeck, in for a rouble I suppose.

DJK said...

I see that Boris has now given an open invitation to all Ukranians to come and settle here. Please God preserve us from someone who likes to make big gestures.

Matt said...


It is not clear whether Russia has sent troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine, but the US and UK say Russia's order to deploy troops amounts to the "beginning of an invasion".

So, no Russian troops in Ukraine then. More exaggeration from the media.

Anonymous said...

DJK - if Boris must invite Ukrainians, it should only be young women. The men will all be standing up to Putler.

As a quid pro quo, we can redirect the young men landing in dinghies at Dover to Ukraine. The Azov Battalion needs them.

It's a pity Boris doesn't care about our borders as much as he cares about Ukraine's.

hovis said...

Hmm so Russia has not in fact invaded Ukraine.

Good call CU on the date of *something* happening and the earlier prediction of no Ukrainian invasion.

ND - Sudetenland - short answer bad taste - meh, comparable no.

As far as I can see they have recognised the areas that the East - so far no boots on the ground even in the "new republics". Question is why bother with the rest - it's blood and treasure you don't need to spill.
The added bonus of course for Putin is that NATO has already set the precedent with Kosovo for carving areas out of internationally recognised sovereign states. So we can expect so histrionics for show but really I wouldn't expect too much from the US really:

lilith said...

Isn't it Trudeau "doing the Hitler thing" rather than Putin? Surely Putin is just doing "the Obama thing" of deciding who should be in charge of which country?

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...

It's a pity Boris doesn't care about our borders as much as he cares about Ukraine's.

8:26 pm

Horrifying figures in the Daily Mail re the cost of asylum seekers into the UK

1,715,000,000 per annum....

Good job we're all loaded eh?

Elby the Beserk said...

hovis said...
Hmm so Russia has not in fact invaded Ukraine.

No, it's a "peace keeping force" we are told ;-)

Anonymous said...

ND - do you actually think the internet will be down, or just our stuff parked online at Microsoft etc? I thought the whole point of the internet was that it could survive nodes being taken out.

If you're anywhere near right, we should all be in literal cash for at least a months worth of purchases, as our cards and online banking will be knacked.

Anonymous said...

It'll be boom time for robbers (and security companies) in an all-cash world, and banks will need a crash recruitment of counter staff. Buy safe manufacturers and sell Ocado!

dearieme said...

"Is a total occupation beyond the land grab area, remotely feasible for any length of time?"

Compare the American Federation. It accepted the seceded republics Texas and California into the federation, but also land-grabbed Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Utah.

Am I implying that the US is on course to become as feeble as 19th century Mexico? Not necessarily.

Nick Drew said...

@ do you actually think the internet will be down?

can't put a % on it

don't know if it would be considered War

I do, however, know that backing-up costs f-all time, and might save a lot of heartache - it's no-brainer stuff

Anonymous said...

As I said before, all our cloud stuff will be in Utah and wherever GCHQ park their copies. I wonder where their equivalent of Utah is?

Elby the Beserk said...

Nick Drew said...

I do, however, know that backing-up costs f-all time, and might save a lot of heartache - it's no-brainer stuff

1:28 pm

Add to that, hard drives are very cheap these days. I have a huge amount of data, mostly music, thanks to the Grateful Dead being happy to allow recordings of their shows to a) take place and b) be shared.

My backup regime

OS Drive
Data drive (if you used an SSD, makes sense to move your standard data folders onto another drive - documents, downloads, music, videos, photos)
A drive for my Grateful Dead shows and release albums and videos
A drive for all my other music
A drive for videos.
Each of these is separately backed up.

It's years since I lost anything, and that was a result of a corrupted copy to a drive I didn't pick up at the time.

Oh and if you are using a number of drives, a real time disk monitor such as HD Sentinel will want you of any hard drive problems. Saved my beans a couple of times.

This has been a Public Service Announcement...

My backup suite of choice - Macrium Reflect. Worth every penny.

Thud said...

Perhaps our govts have plans for anything Russia comes up with, but apparently the consensus here is of an omnipotent Putin. Have you ever seen anything in your home, office or workshop produced in Russia? its future is one of being a resource for an all devouring China. A China that has its own claims to chunks of far eastern Russia and its watching with interest, Taiwan is small change.

Anonymous said...

Getting pop up ads for the Maldives on this site.

Are you suggesting something and is it far enough away?

E-K said...

All I know is that our people are being lied to on a grand scale.

"Putin must be stopped or he will grow and take over Europe" is an obvious lie but people are swallowing it.

As soon as he sets foot in a Nato/EU country...

The real threat is the West and Woke emanating from our universities. This will have you banned from peeing standing up in all public buildings soon.

It is an ideology which forces women into second and third places in university swimming competitions and from which they can only smile benignly at the male who has beaten them or else lose their educations.

This is the through-the-looking-glass type of ideology that a megalomaniac needs to take over a large power system and it's not emerging in Russia. It is here. Its worst manifestations are in boot-on-neck Canada and New Zealand of all places.

The reason why Putin is being so badly treated started when he said he did not support under age homosexual sex in a BBC interview some time around the Sochi Olympics. This was the BBC's Gotchya moment and the Liberal intelligensia have been gunning for him since. Of all things to be talking to the Russian President about in a rare interview.

This - I believe - is why there is now war in Europe. The visceral hatred of Putin, the pantomime caricaturing of him (I don't doubt he's a bastard) and the default to treating him badly in all situations.

That the EU is now complaining about something happening in its "back yard" is turning truth on its head as all woke-ists are wont to do.

E-K said...

Yes. China is the winner in all this. She will bleed us dry as we did the USSR. It happens to all cultures driven by ideology rather than pragmatism.

dearieme said...

This was a pretty good prediction.

Anonymous said...

When did we bleed the USSR dry?

Matt said...

So the date was the 24th then?

Anonymous said...

Wasn't it the Yanks in WW2 that bled Britain dry deliberately so that we would lose our empire?

Bill Quango MP said...

The yanks, wanted payment for WW1.
We agreed to pay for our world war debt. Our empire’s war debt. The Russian empire’s war debt, during 1914-1918.

We had not paid that back in 1939. Had, in fact, defaulted on the lot. As had France, who had also borrowed from the USA.

So, quite understandable really.
The USA ended up paying for a European war, they had tried to avoid getting into.

In fact, the USA taxpayers were so angry as a nation that they passed very strict neutrality laws, including finance, to prevent ever being drawn into a European conflict again.

Lend Lease, which the Uk paid nothing at all for, was like a current student loan. Repay it, at some point, in the future, if you ever possibly can. But don’t worry too much about it as it will most likely be written off when you die.

The bit of the world war 2 debt, that the British empire did pay back, was for the period end of 1940 up until march 1941.

Paid back, last payment, in the millennium years.

DJK said...

The comments on the invasion from our leaders are just embarrassing. Here's General Sir Richard Shirref: 'There is a possibility that we as a nation will soon be at war with Russia. We in this country must recognise that our security starts not on the white cliffs of Dover - it starts in the forests of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.'

What is he on about? Why this obsession with defending the borders of Ukraine, when we clearly don't have the means to fight and the government are not interested in defending our own border in the channel, or defending our history against the wokesters.

Bloke in Callao said...

So, Mr Drew, what was it that made you predict the this week for the invasion?

Nick Drew said...

(a) it was CU, not me this time - credit where it's due!
(b) Olympics timing
(c) my great success in this lark was predicting the Georgia thing back in '08. I said "after the Olympics" that time (Beijing summer games), but Putin went and dumped on China's parade and did it DURING. The Chinese were incandescent abt that, so this time Xi read him his fortune and he played the game

Elby the Beserk said...

dearieme said...
This was a pretty good prediction.

12:06 pm

Correct, and the Gold Medal goes to High Priestess Baroness Ashton who kicked this all off.

lilith said...

Putin screwed things up in Syria. (Not my point of view. I am grateful for the Russian intervention in Syria) He must be punished for humiliating Obama.

lilith said...

If you are wondering about GCHQ data...I believe that is looked after by Amazon these days...

Bloke in Callao said...

Thank you Nick, some things are not so obvious here in S. America. Mind you, the Continent of Exiles is looking more and more like a good place to be just at the moment.

E-K said...

The USSR collapsed because it was bankrupted in an arms race and couldn't offer its people the standard of living that the West was delivering their's.