Thursday 3 February 2022

The great game

 Sorry for the long pause, be a bit challenging at work but suffice to say I have a period of free time now….

So, on good authority I have a date for the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Monday 21st of February.

So the question for everyone is, why do I posit this date? 

40 comments:

dearieme said...

Presidents Day and Washington's Birthday.

And it gives the Russkis two days - should be enough -before their troops celebrate Defender of the Fatherland Day.

Bill Quango MP said...

The Agreement on settlement of political crisis in Ukraine are the documents, signed on 21 February 2014 by the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the parliamentary opposition under the mediation of the European Union and Russia.

Bill Quango MP said...

The end of the Czarist regime too. Though almost every day in Russia is National Significant revolutionary event.

DJK said...

Winter Olympics closes on the 20th.

Anonymous said...

Gazprom will turn off the gas as they'll run out by then. So it'll be a 'dead cat' event to distract attention.

Anonymous said...

It still doesn't answer the question - why is the US so determined to push NATO right up to the Russian border? There's no (external) communist threat any more, so what have they got against Russia?

Russia has after all saved Europe from Napoleon and Hitler, and saved France in 1914, by the foolish advance into East Prussia which caused troops otherwise heading for Paris to be diverted back, the whole shambles ending at Tannenberg?

It's like the Americans WANT Russia to attack Ukraine. They were actually more sensible when Eastern Europe was run on the Stalinist system.

Anonymous said...

I hadn't realised when I wrote the comment above that the US have a long term strategy, expressed by the late Zbigniew Brzezinski in 1997, which involves breaking Russia up to enable better looting of its natural resources.

“Given (Russia’s) size and diversity, a decentralized political system and free-market economics would be most likely to unleash the creative potential of the Russian people and Russia’s vast natural resources. A loosely confederated Russia — composed of a European Russia, a Siberian Republic, and a Far Eastern Republic — would also find it easier to cultivate closer economic relations with its neighbors. Each of the confederated entitles would be able to tap its local creative potential, stifled for centuries by Moscow’s heavy bureaucratic hand. In turn, a decentralized Russia would be less susceptible to imperial mobilization.”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1997-09-01/geostrategy-eurasia

Anonymous said...

Or that Ukraine isn't the only problem for Russia - US missiles in Poland and Romania are, too.

“It is extremely alarming that … Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching Tomahawk strike missiles. If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if US and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems.

“This is a huge challenge for us, for our security.”

andrew said...


"It's like the Americans WANT Russia to attack Ukraine. "

The 'she was asking for it' reasons for war.

Dont forget, russia has been at war with the ukraine for the last 8 years. That separatist army in the donbas is being supplied by someone and its many thousands of soldiers are being paid by someone. It is known some of the soldiers are russian military on 'leave'.
I think the US is not 'bothered' as a proper invasion makes the position clear, no 'asymmetric ambiguity' for russia to hide behind.

Why the date ?

The supreme soviet gave away Crimea 19 feb 1954, it was announced 8 days later - 27th.
6 days may be enough to get tanks to the right bank of the dneiper. Maybe not all the way up to Kiev, possibly stop at kremenchuk.


andrew said...

You can over - analyse 21st Feb.

My favourite is that is is the anniversary of the start of the battle of Verdun.

Anonymous said...

great analogy, Andrew.

Speccie today on the Red Wall Betrayal - I know a lot of people up there are extremely cross about the abandonment of the Manchester-Leeds via Bradford HS3 line.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Powerhouse_Rail

"Johnson himself has failed, time and again, to prioritise sorting out the Channel migration shambles – the issue that culturally conservative Leave voters tell pollsters they care about more than any other. Since the departure of Cummings, he has also surrounded himself with a cabal of posh, rich Home Counties-based types who are close to his wife and push a policy agenda antithetical to the spirit of the Red Wall"

For the 56th time, it's a pity Dom didn't keep his mouth shut and wait for the call back to power. By his reaction, he's ensured no one else will call him back either.

CityUnslicker said...

One of you nailed it, well done. Look at China today too, Vlad has her onside.

Anonymous said...

Publication of the communist manifesto in London.

Though that probably is more of a significant historic and holy day to Jeremy Corbyn than to Vladimir Putin.

andrew said...


DJK for new PM's Advisor

... actually that is a rather mean thing to wish on anyone,
but the job is well paid and guaranteed short term

DJK said...

Putin wouldn't want to overshadow the Winter Olympics and annoy his new BFF Xi. Whether he'll do something on 21st Feb I do not know. Maybe there's a plan for the Russians to invade Ukraine and provide distracting cover for the Chinese to go after Taiwan? Rather like the Nazis invading Poland on 1st September and the Soviets following on the 17th, while the rest of the world was distracted.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:11am:

"Russia has after all saved Europe from Napoleon and Hitler..."

The USSR could have saved Europe from Hitler sooner if it had fought with the Poles rather than the Germans in 1939. The USSR also supported the Nazi war economy with oil, food and minerals right up to June 1941. Those Luftwaffe crews bombing London were flying in planes made from Soviet supplied materials, fueled by Soviet oil and had been fed with Soviet grain. Thanks for saving us Russia!

As for Napoleon, how many Russia soldiers fought at Waterloo?

Anonymous said...

You'll know how much it costs to keep a standing army of 83,000 - standing.

Think of the cost of troop rotations; logistics and supply; wear and tear on very expensive equipment (if not used); or even more expensive equipment replacement (if used).

The US just sent the bill for Iraq 1 & 2 to Iraq. Russia just puts it on Europe's gas bill.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
I hadn't realised when I wrote the comment above that the US have a long term strategy, expressed by the late Zbigniew Brzezinski in 1997, which involves breaking Russia up to enable better looting of its natural resources.

“Given (Russia’s) size and diversity, a decentralized political system and free-market economics would be most likely to unleash the creative potential of the Russian people and Russia’s vast natural resources. A loosely confederated Russia — composed of a European Russia, a Siberian Republic, and a Far Eastern Republic — would also find it easier to cultivate closer economic relations with its neighbors. Each of the confederated entitles would be able to tap its local creative potential, stifled for centuries by Moscow’s heavy bureaucratic hand. In turn, a decentralized Russia would be less susceptible to imperial mobilization.”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1997-09-01/geostrategy-eurasia

10:27 am
=======================================

There was a feller way back and I'd damned if I can remember his name, who had a well-reasoned theory that that patch of the globe would become of increasing geopolitical importance. And quite a way back. And that others would covet it.

Bill Quango MP said...

Anon 2.38

And from pilots trained in the USSR. And from planes designed and built in the USSR.

Junkers had its production facility outside of Moscow until the very late 1920s.

Outcasts together,

DJK said...

"...And that others would covet it." The others will be 1.5 billion Chinese. There may be a marriage of convenience between China and Russia right now, but I think that Putin is well aware that the PLA probably has a contingency plan to seize Vladivostok.

Anonymous said...

Elby - Halford Mackinder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

Nick Drew said...

Corollary must be Taiwan 5 days later, when Xi has checked out nil response to Ukr from Biden

Back up all your cloud-based data, folks, the cloud won't last ten seconds

Nick Drew said...

and I trust our two mighty aircraft carriers are safely back in Portsmouth ...

James Higham said...

Two days before Defenders of the Fatherland.

Anonymous said...

"I trust our two mighty aircraft carriers are safely back in Portsmouth"

It's not just me who gets the Renown/Prince Of Wales vibe then?

Presumably constant air patrolling would keep them safe from those ships' fate, but missile technology has come on apace since 1941. How do you stop hypersonic missiles?

"Taiwan 5 days later, when Xi has checked out nil response to Ukr from Biden"

The funny thing is the State Department seems more concerned about Russia, which is no global competitor to the US, than about China which is rapidly eating the US lunch.

I don't know about our data, but WE might be in the cloud soon!

"Central London, Cheltenham, Edinburgh, Nottingham, Teeside, Coventry, Wolverhampton, Leicester, Stoke-on-Trent, Belfast, Huddersfield, Sunderland, Gillingham, Rochester, Chatham, Maidstone, Glasgow, Birmingham, Liverpool, Cardiff, Manchester, Southampton, Leeds, Newcastle/Gateshead, Bristol, Sheffield, Swansea, Hull, Catterick, York, Preston, Cambridge, Dover, Reading, Salcombe, Brecon, Kidderminster and Armagh"

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/defence/world-war-3-could-russia-attack-these-former-cold-war-hit-list-targets-including-portsmouth-in-event-of-ww3-3522130

Sobers said...

"So the question for everyone is, why do I posit this date? "

Because if you leave it any later the Spring thaw kicks in and the whole Ukraine turns to mud. And of course thus prevents any retaliatory counter strikes against territory taken by the initial attacks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa

E-K said...

I'm with DJK.

China is going to be supportive of the Russians in this and this is the deal they've asked for - yet another showcase of synchronised flim flammery and top notch snowboard dude obstacles that they don't want to go to waste.

The West has behaved appallingly since the fall of the Berlin Wall. I'm with Putin on this.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
Elby - Halford Mackinder.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

5:31 pm
=====================================
Thanks you. That's the feller

Old Got Carlisle said...

Again off piste but good laugh


Again I had to suppress a smile when the first reading was given at todays communion. Isiah 6 v 1-8.

Should this apply to Boris and is the Seraph Sue Gray?

….. and I said ‘woe is me ! I am lost for I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among people with unclean lips ……..

……..Seraph………holding a live coal which ……..touched my mouth with it said ‘now this has touched your lips, your guilt has departed and your sin is blotted out’. Then I heard the voice of the lord saying ‘Whom shall I send, and who will go for us’.

E-K said...

OGC

Well. I heard of Wayne Rooney needing a chaperone and then heard that Boris was getting a nanny.

It needs to be the other way around, surely ?

Boris has behaved far worse than Rooney in terms of womanising and I don't recall Rooney banging out kids like some baby-father chav... much less having the barefaced cheek to lecture the rest of us on restraint with his 8 kids (?) and counting.

The next general election is going to be fought against a background of grinding hardship and it will be his and his Chancellor's fault.

Net Zero combined with Rishinomics is the Tories' Poll Tax x 1000.

The worst government and Prime Minister in our history.

dearieme said...

"The worst government and Prime Minister in our history."

It's cruel that people have forgotten Toni Blair so quickly.

E-K said...

Some journalists are calling this era New Tory or Red Conservative. They are right.

This is Bairism.

This is not what we voted for. Not even Blair put us in masks for political expedience and his own survival... and we are still very much in them in case you hadn't noticed, on pain of emotional blackmail and mask-less shaming "...wear them out of courtesy for others." say the announcements.

Some Karen the other day even announced "They may not be mandatory here but they still are in Scotland and Wales so put them on over your nose and your mouth." WTF ?

The Coronavirus Act is still in force. Why ?

When did Blair force Net Zero on us ? When did Blair ever raise tax to the highest levels ever recorded and demonstrate such economic incompetence ? Giving billions in money away to the corrupt.

Elby the Beserk said...

@EK

Consocialist Party we now call them. Agreed on worst ever government, surpassing Brown and Blair.

Given up on the whole bloody lot of them. Johnson's answer to everything is now

Spend spend spend. One assumes that the proposed "rebate" of £300 for whoever will be paid for by .... whoever. Whoever being us, whoever being beyond skint already.

Why is that that government now believes that the busier they are the better they are, as opposed to the reality - the busier they are the more they mess everything up?

Recent experience of Lils with the NHS supports this. Having told EVERYONE involved in "healing" her ha ha bloody ha ha ha ha, that she is very allergic to Lactose, I arrive to collect her from the RUH to find her in shreds, as they had prescribed here antibiotics with Lactose in, and a discharge sheet which said "No known allergies".
She'd even told the dietician she was allergic to Lactose and many other things (blood test), to be told, in effect, that she had no allergies.

Oh and the pharmacy was shut by then, so I had to go into Bath to get the replacement. Which was LOADED with sugar, specially prescribed to feed her cancer.

Down the loo with that.

They did however amend the discharge sheet.

"No know allergies" became "WON'T take Lactose". Not "CAN'T take Lactose".

A word of love for the HCAs and cleaners, who looked after her better than any of the full medical staff. Cleaner it was who told her the kitchen would cook her up some chicken broth, so she could at last eat after five days. And clearly its the HCAs who do the real work, as they are all slim, whilst a huge number of the nurses are beyond obese.

I was the only person except from Lils sans mask. Just ignored any "mandatory" signs. Lils referred to medics coming to prod her so - "Hello, faceless people".

RIP NHS. Long past functional, long past repair. All it needs is more money folks and it will be fine.

Anonymous said...

"RIP NHS. Long past functional, long past repair."

Some of that can be put down to the changes in nursing training, from three paid years where you start out emptying bedpans, to three debt-funded "degree" years where you start in the classroom and by the time you hit the wards you're in too much debt to back out. Started by Blair's government, but I didn't see the Tories fighting in the streets over it.

Search for "Project 2000 nursing".

It could have been designed to produce resentful, debt-burdened nurses.

Nursing education is appalling, more like political than medical training. A friend, a very bright woman (doctor level IQ with a lot to spare) is training as a nurse at this very moment. She's horrified by what they're "teaching", 50% of which is more like sociology than medicine. THAT's where all the unemployed sociology lecturers ended up!

My wife found the same thing a decade ago. I imagine it's only got worse.

https://ukcommentators.blogspot.com/2003/10/come-back-miss-nightingale.html

Don Cox said...

E-K said:
"This is Blairism.

This is not what we voted for."

It's middle-of-the road politics, half way between Corbyn and Thatcher. And that is what wins votes in Britain, as Blair and Johnson have both shown.

Maybe it isn't what you voted for, but it's what won an 80 seat majority.

Don

Thud said...

Apparently or at least according to the general feeling here Ukraine and Taiwan would be a relative walk in the par, I think not.

E-K said...

Don - It isn't what people voted for. They voted to get Brexit Done and to avoid Woke.

That is not Blairism.

Thud - Both Taiwan and Ukraine are BECAUSE of our surrender to Woke and Covid.

Neither are a coincidence and I told you this would happen very many times.

E-K said...

PS, Yet another funeral of a dear friend killed by lockdown. Masks on at the service... off at the wake.

Madness !

(Loved Elby's and Lilith's "hello faceless people." She's looking well and you both called it right on the vaccine and have been proven so - I was a chump for taking it.)

AndrewZ said...

Russia's objective is to re-establish a buffer zone on its western border, due to a deep-rooted fear of encirclement and invasion. A full-scale invasion of Ukraine is the most costly and high-risk way of doing that, so it's not likely to happen while other options remain to be explored.

I suspect that the current manoeuvres are aimed at the "Finlandization" of Ukraine, and I don't think it's a coincidence that President Macron has proposed that very thing as the basis for a settlement between Ukraine and Russia.

But to force the Ukrainian government to accept this, the Russians have to demonstrate that they do have the means to invade and that Ukraine can't rely on NATO or the EU for support. America doesn't want to fight another massive war in Europe and Western Europe cares more about Russian gas than Ukrainian sovereignty. It's also not a coincidence that this is happening while the demand for gas remains particularly high.

So why have US government sources suggested that an invasion is imminent? The main reason is probably to deter the Russians from any temptation to actually try it, by hinting that they know the plan and could ensure that the Ukrainians were fully briefed on what to expect. But if "Finlandization" is the most likely endpoint, talking up a huge crisis is a way to make the subsequent negotiations appear - to the Western public, at least - as a welcome relief instead of cynical realpolitik or an admission of weakness.

I suspect that CU's anonymous source is playing a similar game, and adding details like a specific date to make it sound more credible.

E-K said...

Never good to be dependent on Russian gas.

Woke

Covid

Add

Greenism

All of it self inflicted.