Monday 23 May 2022

Ukraine / Biden / Taiwan: where does this lead?

Here's a headline to wake up to on a dull Monday morning: 

US would defend Taiwan if attacked by China, says Biden.   President says US’s responsibility to protect island is ‘even stronger’ after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Blimey.  If he isn't immediately made to "walk this back" by his own people (which is what generally happens when Biden's been talking in his sleep again), this is an absolute blockbuster, and will shake the Chinese rigid.

The only offset is the technicality that he paid lip-service to the 'One China' policy - followed, however, by "but".

What a turnaround.  Back in February, Xi must have been expecting that Putin's Ukraine gambit (a) would turn out to be a quick win of some sort; and (b) could be parlayed to give China more options - and maybe opportunity - vis-à-vis their own designs upon Taiwan.  Make it clear that the USA is a paper tiger, etc.  That sanctions don't work.  That the RoW doesn't fall in line with the west.  That India is with him.

But that would have been based on the notion that China had already secured a satisfactory baseline of non-commitment from the USA.  Xi would never have given Putin the thumbs-up otherwise: not in a million years.  

If Ukraine's success in dragging Putin into the mire has actually emboldened Biden in this regard (plus giving a fine public demonstration of the efficacy of good defensive weaponry + intelligence + tactics), Xi must wonder if Taiwan is now out of reach in his lifetime.  

Actually, of course, that might make things even more dangerous.  We're having quite enough of Old (& sick) Men In A Hurry just now.

ND

29 comments:

BlokeInBrum said...

The knock-on effect of the fighting in Ukraine is that everyone and their dog is now trying to figure out a way of reducing their reliance on the international banking system. Reducing their reliance on the (petro) dollar, and becoming more self-sufficient technologically and militarily.

Biden and the American regime were never trusted or liked round the world, but now he's managed to motivate China, India, Turkey, Russia and many others to take steps to actively distance themselves from the American led Global Order.

All the while risking nuclear confrontation with Putin at great financial cost, for no strategic benefit whatsoever.

I feel safer already.

E-K said...

I feel a bit shaky. Perhaps another virus coming on.

E-K said...

Three old men with brain disorders, ND. (No. Not me, you and Elby. Putin, Xi and most definitely Biden.)

Bill Quango MP said...

Biden should keep a little quiet for a while.
The USA is poised to have a nice spending and resource boost to its pacific theatre, thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

1. The pacifist euro nations, Germany especially, have been forced to spend money on their almost non existent military. Germany will be adding at least an Italian sized nato force, within a few years.

2. If Sweden and Finland join nato, Russia’s unfriendly Nato border increases and the Northern European flank is secured. The Swedish airforce is a very significant power. And the Finns have, as a result of historic ‘winter war 2’ planning, a decent army and 100,000 plus rapidly mobilised reserves. With another 50,000 available as replacements if necessary.

3. The USA, with the northern flank secure, and an additional 200+ frontline aircraft available in a fairly short timeframe, can divert some of their euro defences airforce to the pacific.

4. The sanctions do work. They are very slow to take effect, but very damaging long term. The rouble is held up at present by 17% interest rates and severe exchange controls.

Before the actual rolling of the tanks. When the threat had the nato and European powers terrified of post Covid war in Europe, Putin could have achieved many of his aims. His gangster nation could muscle the neighbours and silence the west apart from a few sanctions.
Now, the paper bear is in a far worse position than it was. Far, far worse. If the goal really was to stop the expansion of NATO..? Well, how’s that working out for him?

China must have been prepared to see what Russia achieves by force. They won’t have been impressed.

Nick Drew said...

well, all perspectives welcome, let a thousand flowers bloom - but I'm clearly with BQ here, & not BiB

risking nuclear confrontation with Putin at great financial cost, for no strategic benefit whatsoever

Hmm. I wonder if Putin would try a nuke without getting Xi's say-so. Obviously, Xi was happy enough to let Putin run a live experiment on actual hardcore (conventional) invasion. Would he also like to find out how the west reacts to a nuke?

No strategic benefit? See BQ's list. And if there might eventually be (a) a ceasefire with whatever new borders and (b) a decent rebuilding of what's left of UKR, plus rapid EU membership - visible proof that "Russian" slavs can aspire to the benefits of western prosperity (with the right alignment ...) - then Putin's Russia will truly have screwed itself into the ground.

I'm still on notice from an Anon to do a post on Putin's "restraint". Later this week, perhaps.

Kev - shaky? well we can all guess what that must be ..

iOpener said...

This post seems to be based on the assumption that any of the people nations named are actually what they appear to be or claim to be.

Everyone lies, especially underlings to superiors in command control management systems without independent feedback like bankruptcy when expenses exceed revenue. Likewise, everyone makes mistakes which are never fixed in those systems.

We cannot at all rely on what China says or what it appears to be. I expect their military to be every bit as bad as Russia's if not worse. We cannot believe one word from the Germans, a nation with a long history of political and commercial lies. Volkswagen.

Are Finns, Swedes, Americans et al any better? Doubt it, especially as the current American regime has clearly been proven to be the end product of a vast mass of lies and liars. Even the WSJ has been forced to admit it.

E-K said...

Nick.

Shaky ?

Not fear, if that's what you mean. Fuming about yet another US regime change and war with displaced millions into Europe and hundreds of thousands dead. Especially our part in it, front and centre.

If something nasty comes our way we can't say we didn't ask for it.

dustybloke said...

This is what I was afraid of when Big Tech helped the senile old git get elected.

They had obviously demanded a price and defence of chipland was it.

Let’s hope they haven’t found a way to nuke China by hacking.

Nick Drew said...

Fear? Oh no, I assumed monkeypox of course

Don Cox said...

Resignation statement of a Russian diplomat:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTb9mJpX0AE0Xla?format=jpg&name=medium

Don Cox

BlokeInBrum said...

So all Trumpf had to do to get Germany and the Euro Nations to meet their spending commitments to Nato is to risk nuclear escalation with Russia?

I wonder what the MSM would have thought of that?

At least it may have had the effect of stopping all the stories regarding Russian collusion!

AndrewZ said...

Biden speaks impulsively and the Chinese government must realise that, so they will be urgently trying to find out how serious the US commitment to Taiwan actually is.

But let's call it "the Great Clarification". The war in Ukraine has forced many governments to sort out their priorities and pick sides. It also forces them to consider how they would react to similar acts of aggression elsewhere. Political parties and ideological factions face the same pressure.

That doesn't necessarily mean any great re-alignment in the international order, but it does mean that a lot of uncertainties will suddenly be resolved as clear choices become unavoidable.

jim said...

I suppose Biden figures the Chinese would not go nuclear so Biden does not have to sacrifice Yonkers for Quanzhou. Anyway, I doubt China has any realistic invasion plans - economic domination plans maybe. So just something for Biden's newswires. Xi can afford to wait. Once the semiconductor plants have been put in non-Taiwan places no-one will care.

The Ukraine mood music has gone from 'Russia will roll over Ukraine' - tough luck - to 'plucky little Ukraine, send some ammo and beat those Ruskies' - to 'well we are only going so far funding this thing' - to 'if we don't start shifting the grain soon there will be trouble'.

Nations have interests not allies. I can't help feeling that if we (EU + UK) had schmoozed Putin over the last decade all this unpleasantness might have been avoided. Keep you enemies close etc. But of course that would have irked the 5 eyes and the Pentagon. Which begs the question - exactly whose side is the Pentagon on?

BlokeInBrum said...

I see lots of people making the strawman argument that Putin will no longer be able to nuke the West, or invade other countries.

Aside from a couple of ex-Soviet satellite states, was there any real prospect of that happening?

And even if that were the case, so what? We've seen very clearly that Russia hasn't the capabilities to oppose the West/Nato economically or militarily, so Russia invading Finland or Poland was alway fantasy land.

Putin , for all his faults has been pretty risk-averse. I won't belabour the point that everyone in the west knew that expanding Nato into Ukraine was a red line that Russia wouldn't tolerate.

You still haven't enumerated what the benefit is to the West, and Britain in particular in poking the Russian bear. There is a lot of downside risk and no upside.

The West has kick started a new global arms race, great!

Sanctions seem to be hurting us as much as the Russians.

Millions of Ukrainians are now without homes or jobs.


"Putin could have achieved many of his aims. His gangster nation could muscle the neighbours and silence the west apart from a few sanctions."

Is that why Russian gangsters seem to own half of London?


Would it have been such a hit to our pride simply to commit to not expanding Nato into Ukraine?

Because as far as I can see, that would have stopped this conflict in its tracks. There would have been a possibility of Russia taking over Donetsk & Luhansk, but again, so what? It would be no loss to us.

Clearly though, the groundwork for this conflict was laid many years ago, and it's pretty clear that Putin walked into a trap designed to topple him.

We just have to hope that an ill (or dying?) Putin decides not to roll the dice on major escalation.


"That doesn't necessarily mean any great re-alignment in the international order."

Your obviously missing the signs, because that is exactly what is happening.

India has already made it explicit that they are going to be distancing themselves militarily and technologically from America with an emphasis on becoming self sufficient. They are also making sure they have an alternative to SWIFT in place to make sure that the banking system cannot be weaponized against them.

The Chinese regime is doing the same and is looking at the sanctions put in place against Russia and putting moves in place to counteract their effects. New rules are now there to make sure that party officials and their families have no substantial financial holdings in the West that can be used against them.

There is a schism in the international order of things taking place. Previously, those who disagreed with the globalist international order had no choice but to kowtow or be turned into pariahs. Now there is a critical mass of nations centered around China that now have a viable alternative to the Western Progressive orthodoxy. We are now living in interesting times indeed.

Hands up those who think Boris is the competent, safe pare of hands capable of navigating such stormy waters?

Anonymous said...

Commentators have remarked that part of the issue with Russia's war effort is the dodgy supplies coming from China. Where do the Wolf Warriors get their gear from?

What was the last major war the PLP were involved in. Some time ago. And how did that go?

rwendland said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Matt said...

@ rwendland

Psaki is no longer press secretary. Article posted is from October 23, 2021.

rwendland said...

Matt, thanks for spotting that! Maybe I'm catching the Biden-condition :-(

Nick Drew said...

@ You still haven't enumerated what the benefit is to the West, and Britain in particular in poking the Russian bear. There is a lot of downside risk and no upside

who, exactly, do you feel should be making such a case, BiB ? Some unidentified American warmonger?

I haven't read any endorsement of the bellicose utterances of Truss et al here. At most, all anybody has been doing around here is pointing out how remarkably badly Russia is faring, relative to Putin's apparent calculations / expectations (in amongst some early trolls who thought he was doing just fine). For myself, I'd make that "unexpectedly badly" but some folks around here seem to think they never expected him to be able to mount a big conventional attack; and that therefore he has, errr, never been a credible military threat to our interests. Seriously? Can't follow that one, meself

dearieme said...

"Hands up those who think Boris is the competent, safe pare of hands capable of navigating such stormy waters?"

The alternative was Corbyn.

Elby the Beserk said...

dearieme said...
"Hands up those who think Boris is the competent, safe pare of hands capable of navigating such stormy waters?"

The alternative was Corbyn.

12:41 am
===================================================

Beginning to wonder whether Jezza might have caused less damage to the country than Blondie... truly.

Elby the Beserk said...

OTT, but given the world has lost its collective marbles....

Is Elon Musk into Elon Mao?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/elon-mad-hell-musk-just-blew-2022

Anonymous said...

Of relevant interest, the plane (09-0016 UNITED STATES AIR FORCE BOEING 757-200) that flew Biden to Glasgow for COP24 has just left Japan, been there since May 19.

Also a few days back a big Japanese military transport arrived at Rzeszow.

Bill Quango MP said...

Talking about the Taiwan aspect of Biden’s comments on uk radio, right now.

Pretty much what has been said here over that last months. The Olympics no limits agreement. The push back from Ukraine. The same porcupine strategy for defence of Taiwan.
Xi rumour mill.

Was a very interesting guest. Very objective.

Bloke in Callao said...

...exactly whose side is the Pentagon on?

The same one as our Foreign Office - I don't know what it is but it certainly isn't ours.

Boris is no safe pair of hands, but if the Corbynator had won the last election we'd now be sending troops to Ukraine to fight on the Russian side.

E-K said...

BiC

Which would have brought it to a negotiated end quicker. Which is what no less than Henry Kissinger has just stated Zelensky should do.

Sobers said...

"India has already made it explicit that they are going to be distancing themselves militarily and technologically from America with an emphasis on becoming self sufficient. They are also making sure they have an alternative to SWIFT in place to make sure that the banking system cannot be weaponized against them."

For me the last sentence is the most important tectonic plate thats moving. We have lived in the US dominated financial world for 70+ years now, and most cannot conceive of how a world where it has a competing financial system would look like. And how dangerous it would (indeed will) be. The US has been relying on the dollar's currency hegemony to live beyond its means ever since the 1960s, so when it can no longer rely on the rest of the world to hoover up the trillions of dollars it likes to issue, it will find its place in the world taken down a few pegs. And thats the dangerous time - when the World Superpower is facing being knocked off its perch then its likely to do something stupid to try and retain its position.

visc said...

Whether you believe
there is a shift in the financial system
the actions by the US lead bloc are both stupid and self defeating

..or not .. (I happen to), the one thing that can't be denied is the "printing" of dollars over the last year is so extreme that getting the rest of the world to accept the continued privilege of the USD would be tricky before anything else kicked off.

Anonymous said...

The printing of sterling since 2007 is pretty impressive itself.