Returning from a Bank Hol run on the supermarket, I cannot but notice that the much-heralded inflation (as anticipated by myself, amongst many others) has not yet hit food prices - at least, not the stuff Mrs D and I buy, across a wide range of foodstuffs and drinks. Not even the stuff coated in sunflower oil.
We are given to believe supply chains are heavily oriented towards just-in-time, which speaks against there being many months of last year's produce stashed in Mr Tesco's warehouse, being steadily run down. The warehouses of his suppliers? Some of what's in our trolley is fresh produce.
And everything requires transportation: do supply-chain players buy their fuel many months forward? I'd believe they fixed their electricity and gas prices around this time last year, which was when every energy professional knew the price crisis was coming, Ukraine or no Ukraine. But diesel? Ships' bunkers? Maybe.
Or is everyone determined to take the hit in their P&L? Is it even a "passive price war"?
All in all, I'm surprised. When does the absence of wheat (& sunflower) exports from Ukraine - and Russia - make itself felt? When do supply-chain players run out of forward-purchased energy?
When does food inflation hit?
PS: Food aside, I'm not sure I've encountered the full out-working of >6% CPI generally, either ...
PPS: Food price inflation has gone through the roof in, errrr, Russia ... One of our new trolls can now assert this is CIA propaganda if they like, but, hey-ho, it's true.