Oh wow. Both Nord Stream pipelines have apparently leaked their guts out in the last day or so. Ol' Joe Biden always said he'd be making sure NS 2 never went into operation. To be honest, I never really believed he'd resort to the Semtex Option, but who knows ...
Scope for a tremendous range of imaginative conspiracy theories here. Cui bono? Well probably not German industry. Make of that what you will - and I'm sure some of you will.
Quiz: who blew up NS1 and NS2?
- Ol' Joe Biden
- Li'l Volodya Putin
- The Poles
- The international commodities traders
- The Rand Corporation
- Defective Russian engineering
- That James Bond gadget
- George Soros
- "false flag"
- Greenpeace
- 'Buster Crabbe'
- German Green Party breakaway faction
- [.... your write-in answer here ....]
Incidentally, Putin's announcement of last week is really, errrr, stirring things up, isn't it? Not sure that his "partial mobilisation, I stress, only partial" is entirely going to whatever plan he had in mind, unless you consider it was simply to give the Russian people to understand in a rather graphic way that they're all in it now, whether they thought of themselves as armchair spectators or not. BTW, despite his and other Russian leaders' placatory TV language, the Executive Order he signed contained nothing that limits the mobilisation, and might almost amount to conscription - a very different concept indeed.
But putting guns into the hands of tens of thousands of morose, drunken and undisciplined Russians is something that ... well, let's just note it's something that Lenin went to great lengths to avoid, his first act on taking power being to dis-arm and disband the army and get them all out of Moscow.
Finally, let's elaborate on the point I made last week, that his sinister (but technically nuanced) nuclear 'hint' leaves him awkwardly placed next month when he's annexed four new formerly-Ukrainian oblasts and they are all still under determined "NATO" attack. OK, by the letter of his dictum, they'll be under conventional attack, so his nuclear threshold hasn't been crossed: but try telling that to the bellicose woman who fronts on Russian national TV. She'll want retaliatory nukes - "this is not a bluff" - starting as soon as the next big town falls back into the hands of the Ukrainians.
And - and this is the Big One - if he really does annex the lot, it puts these new fully-under-seige territories in the same category as Crimea - or maybe the other way around. Now he'd probably been enjoying a de facto pass from the world at large since 2014, on keeping Crimea in his poaching-pocket. But maybe he's just jeopardised that: he's taking one helluva gamble as to how it falls.
Or maybe he's just jeopardised the whole of Europe. Did the man say Interesting Times?
ND
53 comments:
"Or maybe he's just jeopardised the whole of Europe. "
And he didn't need to do that, given that Merkel spent many years doing exactly that.
I think the US saw that "European unity" might give way as manufacturing collapses in Europe and expands in the US.
Russia has continually pointed out that THEY aren't the economic warfare merchants, NS2 is there ready and waiting - so the US (or maybe the SBS, but the US has AFAIK plenty of expertise) has decided to take away that option. NS1 also has two holes in it.
"Reuters has a further update on the pipeline situation, carrying a statement from Nord Stream AG, the operator of the network, which says three offshore lines of the Nord Stream gas pipeline system have sustained “unprecedented” damage in one day."
To vary the metaphor, Germany is the teen girl on the sink estate who's taken an overdose, NS2 is the ambulance with antidote that's just pulled up, and the US is the scally who's just broken into it and stolen all the drugs.
Wouldn't this normally constitute an act of war by the US against Germany?
Were Germany not so intent on suicide, that is.
It's long been a US objective for Nord Stream 2 not to open, so if the pipeline has been damaged, then the US is the obvious suspect. OTOH, a US attack on a Russian owned pipeline would seem like an act of war (against Russia, I think), so maybe the US got the Ukrainians to do the actual deed. I don't think the Russians would damage their own pipeline it since they have plenty of other options for stopping the gas flows. In any case, the Russian objective is to decouple Germany from the US and get back to a mutually beneficial trade relationship.
As you say, interesting times.
DJK - isn't it more the US wanting to decouple Germany and Russia?
To tell whodunnit, need satellite tracking of ships in the area plus data on submarines/submersibles. My understanding is the Baltic is miked up to the max, so that shouldn't be hard.
Trouble is that those who may know, or may soon know (DK, SE) have incentives to keep quiet.
IIRC, the US was happy for Germany to get gas through the pipelines going via Ukraine, since it meant that Ukraine was extracting substantial economic rent from the Russian/German trade. What they objected to was a pipeline that connected supplier (Russia) and consumer (Germany) directly.
And what is decoupling in practice, just forcing Germany to buy US LNG instead of (cheaper) Russian gas.
This source:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-war-on-germany-just-entered-its-hot-phase.html
has a map, showing the location of damage to NS1 and NS2. MoA blames Poland for the attack.
The Polish hatred for Russia is understandable but foolish. After 200 years where the border's gone to and fro, lots of Poles killed by Russia (incl Ukraine) and Germany, yet the historic Polish nation still exists.
If Russia loses, Poland will be full of Congolese and Somalis within 15 years, and there'll be drag queen storytime in every Catholic primary. Look at what's happened to Ireland and the UK.
If Russia wins, Poland may still be doomed, but at least they'll have a different cultural template next door.
Churchill said of the Poles 70 years ago that "…it is a mystery and tragedy of European history that a people capable of every heroic virtue, gifted, valiant, charming, as individuals, should repeatedly show such inveterate faults in almost every aspect of their governmental life".
Sweden reporting seismographs registered explosions
SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday. “There is no doubt that these are explosions,” says Björn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN.
The first explosion was recorded at 02.03am on the night of Monday and the second at 7.04pm on Monday evening.
The warnings about the gas leaks came from the Maritime Administration at 1.52pm and 8.41pm on Monday, respectively, after ships detected bubbles on the surface.
SVT has obtained the coordinates of the measured explosions and they are in the same area where the gas leaks were registered.
Hey c'mon, guys, we can try harder than this! What about False Flag? How many people have subs or diving teams in the Baltic??
I would say: well that burns the boats good & proper. But actually, pipelines can often be repaired remarkably quickly.
Maybe not before the onset of winter 2022, though ...
Here's a thought. Whoever did it - Russia will be watching to see if Germany rushes to help mend 'em.
Who would sabotage the pipelines?
Who benefits from this.
Russia
Ukraine
NATO
EU
USA
Gas markets.
Let’s see.
Russia. Force the price ever higher to try and beat the west into submission before it’s own economy and unrest makes it go under.
Russia doesn’t really need to sabotage its own pipeline though. It could just make up some bullshit excuse like before. The clock was wrong in the office. Urgent maintenance and the eu sized wrench is not available due to sanctions. Denmark say their supplies are not affected. So, what’s the point?
Ukraine.
To increase the price of gas further and further encourage EU nations to halt arms and end the war?
Unlikely.
NATO
Why? Why would NATO want stop something their nations are already committed to stopping in the future?
Eu. Because the EU has all the gas it needs this winter and wants to drive the price up to help Russia who needs super high to pay for the discounts east?
So no.
USA
Of course! It’s always the USA! They do everything.
But why? In case Russia says to Europe you can have all the gas you want. Just let’s be friends again!
Won’t happen.
And
Won’t happen.
Gas export traders.
Because , why not?
Or
Accident?
Another example of Russian corruption where maintenance work is billed for millions of dollars, but no work is done. And Chief engineer Chomsky has a new dacha ?
Maybe it was Truss and the Tories? They have been blowing all sorts of things up lately.
Treaties.
Majorities
Convention
The Markets
Sound money
The pound.
I think it’s them. On the Sherlock Holmes basis. Everything else is discounted.
Well, ND - Ukraine have accused Russia of doing it! The Guardian are reporting that straight-faced, as they also reported that Russia had shelled the NPPP at Zaphowatsisname.
Fair play to Senile Joe or his controllers. He did say, admittedly it might have come to him through an earpiece, that if Russia sent tanks or troops across the border "there will no NS2".
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1574702376262701056
German Green Party breakaway faction?
Surely it was the Green German Party Breakaway Tendency?
Or was it the Breakaway German Green Popular Front?
SPLITTERS!
Coincidence that it happened on the very day that the Poles celebrated the opening of the Baltic pipeline from Norway to Poland.
Aren't we all missing the obvious?
Time travelling aliens in cahoots with Mick Jagger - the time jumping Jack Flash are, after all, a gas, gas, gas.
Bill Quango MP: "Accident? Another example of Russian corruption where maintenance work is billed for millions of dollars, but no work is done. And Chief engineer Chomsky has a new dacha ?"
You mean a bit like HS2. Exactly how many billions have been wasted on consultants?
If it were just one of the pipelines, that might be a plausable explanation. But both at the same time? No, not an accident, and not poor quality workmanship.
The British did it.
By the way, this puts all civilian infrstructure anywhere in the world in play.
I remember when the Guardian wasn't a globalist rag. Something happened when they were raided by police post-Assange/Snowden, and all their computers gone through by forensic IT intelligence guys.
Whatever they found, they've been toeing the line ever since.
Martin Belam:
"Amid the speculation over sabotage, suspicion immediately turned to potential culprits – with fingers pointed at Russia, whose pipelines were hit, suggesting a further weaponisation of energy supplies to Europe in the midst of the conflict in Ukraine."
I think it was Mussolini, during the collapse of his regime with rats leaving the ship in all directions, who said of a colleague "this is another man with whom I cannot get angry, because I despise him".
And next: the run on toilet paper, beans and pasta.
Anon. Not really like HS2.
The consequences for Russian state and military corruption are that stuff is not done or isn’t there.
Russia is like a Middle Eastern, or south East Asia nation. The state pie, is everyone’s income. How much you get depends on how senior you are and how many contracts you can amass.
Russia’s procurement General was making money by billing the Russian Federation for ration packs that were never delivered. Bought from a company that was formed only days before the tender process.
Heating for soldier’s homes was a scandal under the same man. Who blamed a non existent deputy for not making sure heating was available to the 2500 soldier’s families. In Murmansk.
This corruption feeds downwards too.
In order to pretend those rations from2015 were new, whoever was supposed to supply them had to make up the invoices. Whichever transport section delivered them all, the same. Whichever Colonel of each Depot has to accept the old rations as new. Or that the never delivered were actually delivered and replaced the expired.
As does the deputy.
And the sergeant major has to say that all the ration packs that were not delivered are fine.
On every inspection of the stores some officer has to write they are all there and all in date.
As does the corporal who does the actual inspecting.
All have to be paid. Or the corruption does not work.
That’s real trickle down economics at work.
The downside is, that when the conscript crew on the training exercise on the Ukraine border is given five year old food, they sell the reserve fuel for the APC and buy their own rations.
Hence the columns of vehicles abandoned by their crews.
For lack of fuel and lack of care and lack of willingness to be killed for a nation which only gives them tins of food from 2010.
It’s why corruption is such an important index. Putin was supposed to have made this his priority since 2012. But it’s ingrained. Too many people need kickbacks.
Ukraine, with a dreadful corruption index, was able to ensure its armed forces were sufficiently supplied to stop the initial attacks.
It would be interesting to see how that was achieved.
Bill Quango MP: "Russia’s procurement General was making money by billing the Russian Federation for ration packs that were never delivered. Bought from a company that was formed only days before the tender process."
So exactly like the British Tory party during COVID, then.
Billions of £ of so called PPE sold to the NHS which they have subsaquently destroyed because it was sub standard[1].
£5bn lost to fraud during as a result of graft and nepotism in the payment of furlough grants.[2]
Bill Quango MP: "Ukraine, with a dreadful corruption index, was able to ensure its armed forces were sufficiently supplied to stop the initial attacks."
Yea That's why Russia ran out of armaments in May. Keep parroting the tired narrative, if it makes you feel better.
But you are correct, 'a fish rots from the head'. And the British government is rotten to the core.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jun/10/4bn-of-nhs-covid-ppe-to-be-burned-as-it-is-unusable-says-committee-report
[2] https://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/article/1751679/more-than-five-billion-furlough-funds-lost-fraud-error
I missed the bit where I wrote Russia ran out of ammunition in May.
It must be in invisible ink next to ‘ insert strawman rebuttal here.’
Pointless to debate if we are implying an oranges is an apples is a cabbage is a spoon .
Bill Quango MP: "Pointless to debate if we are implying an oranges is an apples is a cabbage is a spoon."
Then address the question: Why is British incompetence and corruption better than Russian incompetence and corruption?
And then, why is it that the British Army, after a decade of Tory administration, can't muster more that two brigades[1] ?
"It’s quite jaw-dropping. One of the key takeaways from this evidence is the Army can’t field two armored infantry brigades”
Yet, Tory morons are gung ho about engaging a military that has just pretty much obliterated the best army Nato had in Europe.
[1] https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/10/12/british-army-admits-more-delays-in-fielding-enough-combat-forces/
Then address the question: Why is British incompetence and corruption better than Russian incompetence and corruption?
Incompetence is not corruption.
I don't recall any 40km convoy's out of fuel on the roads of Iraq. Except that burning Iraqi one.
But let me do my own straw man argument.
Was the rout in the Russian Forces after the Ukraine offensive a strategic retreat to prepared positions, as claimed by their military news expert? Or the army fleeing in panic?
If Russia is doing so well,and all is going to plan, and the losses are minimal, why are the reserves being called up?
At huge social and economic cost.
Bill Quango MP: "why are the reserves being called up?"
Russia has seized over 81,000 square Km of formerly Ukrainian territory in the last eight months. They will need some extra military, to police and defend it.
Bill Quango MP: "At huge social and economic cost."
Yea, the incompetent Tory party have bankrupted the UK and destroyed its reputation for enforcement of contract. Seized assets legally belonging to people who had fled Russia because they disagreed with Putin, for no other reason than they were ethnic Russian.
But the Tory party has utter disregard for the citizens in this country who are about to be thrust into poverty. Exploding energy bills and rampant inflation coupled with rising interest rates will ruin millions of British citizens.
But here you are twattering about social costs in Russia.
"Russia has seized over 81,000 square Km of formerly Ukrainian territory in the last eight months. They will need some extra military, to police and defend it."
Thank the Lord for Russian shills. Much as the Russian military has provided plenty of laughs with its crass incompetence, they are bitter laughs given the death, destruction and horrors on both sides.
Thank you for a really good and hearty belly laugh this morning, keep them coming.
If the Russians wanted to blow up gas pipelines then surely they would blow up the Norwegian pipeline instead?
Russia has been dangling the promise of restarting supply as a means of applying pressure on Germany and the EU to support an end to the war in Ukraine.
But now, that possibility has been eliminated.
And right on cue, Zelensky has announced that Ukraine will not take part in any peace talks while Putin remains in power.
The only people who benefit are those who want the war to continue. US suppliers of LNG are making money hand over fist and now one of their major economic competitors have suffered a setback as well.
Although to be fair, China is also making money hand over fist reselling Russian LNG to Europe and they will also benefit from damaging an economic competitor.
But just watch the media spin this to be "the Russians did it!", just like they insisted that it was the Russians who were shelling their own Russian troops at the Nuclear Power Plant that Russia was in control of.
On balance, I don't put Russia at the top of my guess-list (and am pretty surprised that the Grauniad rushes to do so!)
But a case can be made - and an even stronger case for why Putin might think he can see a bit of advantage in it, whoever did it
As you may recall, from the very beginning I have suggested Putin must be gobsmacked that German politicos genuinely didn't know the precarity of their own energy situation - he was counting on them to know it full well. He'd been applying fingers to the throat for most of 2021, gently at first (withholding the usual uncontracted volumes of gas from the market); then after February playing ever less subtle silly-bugger games. Still the Germans haven't come to heel! (Those f**king Greens, eh - can't be trusted to understand anything!)
This latest development puts the Germans right on the spot. (And, yes, more than one player will be happy enough with that.) Anyhow, now Mr P will be watching with great interest to see whether Germany makes any overtures to get the pipes mended. (Depending on the technical malice with which this has been done, p/ls are often surprisingly easy to repair.)
Speaking of which, I'm adding 'Buster Crabbe' to the list !
Bill Quango MP: "I don't recall any 40km convoy's out of fuel on the roads of Iraq. Except that burning Iraqi one."
That 40 km Russian convoy you make so much of, it isn't a sign of Russian incompetence, although that's possibly a factor, it is a sign of Russian air Supremacy in Ukraine. It was vulnerable true, but only if Ukraine has anything to attack it with, Ukraine didn't! Its air force was grounded and suppressed within the first 48 hours of the Russian offensive.
Bill Quango Mp: "on the roads of Iraq"
And there is your mistake, you see every war through the lens of fighting a third world 'army'. Iraq had no air combat ability, next to no air-force, nearly no ability to replenish it's munitions, and was faced with a force that had taken six months to assemble and had overwhelming arms and air superiority.
Caeser Hēméra "Thank you for a really good and hearty belly laugh this morning, keep them coming."
Always a pleasure. Happy to oblige the er, cheap seats.
Caeser Hēméra "Thank the Lord for Russian shills."
As it happens, I'm not burning a flame for Russia. But when I'm expected to swallow a whopper of a lie, hook line and sinker, basic self respect kicks in and, no, I won't.
But also, why is my country being ruined to support a bunch of fascists in a country we have no self defence treaty with and no obligation to support.
It's clearly counter to British citizens interests to be party to this dispute, but for some neocon globalist pretext we have to rush to the defence of the US/CIA project in Ukraine.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Boy oh boy, Anon @ 9:14, you are off-beam
"That 40 km Russian convoy you make so much of, it isn't a sign of Russian incompetence ... It was vulnerable true, but only if Ukraine has anything to attack it with, Ukraine didn't!"
(a) it's a sign of absolute, gross incompetence of the highest military order - flouts 1.01 of every military manual (going right back to the Romans), most specifically including the Russian manual; and further demonstrates ignorance, tactical inflexibility and a complete absence of leadership / command / control
(b) it was shot to hell: some airstrikes, but mostly artillery, drones and off-road raiding parties. Believe me on this one. A vast, static target, in plain sight, on precisely-known coordinates! FFS. This is off-the-scale incompetence.
Incidentally, we now know more about how it all happened. Those APCs had almost no troops in them! It was a shock-and-awe, 'Victory Parade In Kyiv' column. So they couldn't do what even the must junior NCO in the British SArmy would do in those circumstances, namely, fan out to left and right off the road, and deploy an infantry screen. There was no infantry! Just hapless drivers, peeing themselves by the roadside.
There's a case to be made that it was the Russians wot did it, but I still think the US is the most likely suspect, fulfilling the Biden/Nuland promise that NS1/NS2 would be ended if the Russians invaded Ukraine.
I hope that nobody here has a mortgage that they're already struggling to pay. Interest rates are clearly rising fast in the US (UST yield went above 4%) and rates will have to follow here, whether Andrew Bailey likes it or not. That makes the Truss/Kartwang tax cuts even more unaffordable. Adam Tooze in the Graun makes the case that the method in the madness is the old Reaganite scheme of starving the beast, i.e. reducing the tax base to make spending cuts inevitable. That being so, the scale of the required cuts would mean the big hitters --- pensions and NHS --- would come under scrutiny. Even the forthcoming Labour government is going to struggle with spending.
Really, there's just too much exciting news these days.
Photos are extraordinary
https://joannenova.com.au/2022/09/nordstream-gas-pipeline-apparently-sabotaged-explosions-and-three-huge-leaks/
Not to mention DOTUS (Dementiac of the United States) and this beezer from February
So, below, this is quite an awkward flashback, to say the least. It’s from February when Joe Biden was trying to talk Russia out of invading Ukraine:
"Biden: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Reporter:— “But how will you do that, exactly, since… The project is in Germany’s control?”
Biden: — “I promise you, we will be able to do that.” “
And if you need a laugh, there's numerus vids of DOTUS on stage at various events, completely unable to find the exit. God help us. Nobody else can any more.
The entire British media has the same response
a) put this YUGE story downpage
b) "Russia accused of sabotage" - strictly true in that some Poles and Ukrainians said it. "Suggestio falsi".
If I were the CIA guy in charge of this op, I'd try to see is there are any explosives available that are only used by Russian military. Sure Ukraine could provide.
Be interesting to see the German reaction, they're like a battered wife.
Chances of them accusing the perps (US) are about as good as "fusion within 2 years".
BBC really are masters of suggestio falsi - here's Merlyn Thomas, BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63057966
"The EU has said leaks in two major gas pipelines from Russia to Europe were caused by sabotage - but stopped short of directly accusing Russia."
Nick Drew: "Those APCs had almost no troops in them! It was a shock-and-awe, 'Victory Parade In Kyiv' column. [ ... ] There was no infantry! Just hapless drivers, peeing themselves by the roadside."
OK, so what you have just said, is that the 40 mile convoy had no military value. Empty APC, scared drivers. Yea, I'd be scared if I was the target of an artillery gunner.
So what ?
That was all we heard of in the opening weeks of the Russian offensive, I always saw the shots of the tail back, but never the chaos of them trying to retreat and turn around. So if it was a 'road to Basra' moment, I missed it. - link ?
Here's one from the Sun[1] 11 March. Reputedly "An estimated 15,000 troops along with fuel tankers and ammunition trucks are believed to be in the convoy", that appears to contradict your narrative that the convoy was all but empty.
believed, Yea.
[1] https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17914958/russian-troops-kyiv-attack-ukraine-war/
Seems that the American Sixth fleet were recently lurking with intent in that area;
"BALTIC SEA – A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology.
In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy Sixth Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring (MIREM) -- all under the direction of U.S. Sixth Fleet Task Force 68."
https://sfn.nato.int/newsroom/news-archive/2022/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-testing-new-technology
https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22-a-perfect-opportunity-for-research-and-resting-new-technology/
anon @ 1:12, it gets sillier and sillier
- suddenly 40 km has become 40 miles - do keep up with your own guff
- how, pray, was anyone to know the APCs in this convoy were not at full complement? Yes, the intelligence is excellent but we don't yet count the number of warm bodies inside an APC on a real-time basis, nor check individually on how often someone's emerging from said APC to take a roadside pee. Exact coordinates are all that's needed
- how is it less of a military cock-up to have a big column like that seriously mauled? The fact that the APCs were less than full doesn't suddenly make it a cardboard convoy: the vehicles were real enough and there was a helluva lot of them - when they crossed the border.
I do hope you're not going to tell us it was a masterly feint: we've had quite enough of that. Volodya 'Potemkin' Putin has squandered resources needlessly. That's it.
Maybe it's just Gaea having a gigantic fanny fart... and who can blame her after all the abuse she's had lately.
David Attenborough ?
I expect he wanted a state funeral bigger than our Queen's. Now he knows he's not going to get one he's thrown a tizzy and sent one of his nature show subs down there.
PS
I said at David's cremation in my eulogy at our little service, "You messed up big time, mate. That's why your ashes will be going up and down the country by UPS and Flybe and not gun carriage and RAF."
PPS, I chose the 23rd Psalm (as recommended by Lilith) and realised it was the Psalm of David. It felt uncanny.
There is also michtam of David - bearing in mind that David and I were raised in Mitcham (near someone of this manor.)
Nick Drew: "suddenly 40 km has become 40 miles - do keep up with your own guff"
As far as I can make out from this thread. It was Bill Quango MP who ( @ 12:34 ) suggested there was a 40km convoy somewhere as some point. I picked that up and ran with it, then when I actually bothered to look up some press reports related to Ukraine, it turned out that the 40km convoy was ( according to the Sun, so shovel as much salt as appropriate ) 40 miles.
Who cares? It was 40 units long, and as you say, hardly worth attacking because it was empty of troops and munitions, and only had drivers in the best ceremonials.
So we agree on that much.
russia attacked ns1/2 and is consistent with putins playbook.
It was unlikely the EU would return to using russian gas so the loss of the pipeline is of no major concern to russia.
putin is losing the war and is getting increasing desperate. He destroyed the pipelines as an act of intimidation and demonstrate technical ability to do so.
putin has only recently started escalating the discussion of nukes, previously it was rus media & various kremlin officials. He is hinting at the use of nukes to protect "russian" territory, which after the referendums includes Ukrainian territory. This is in line with russian nuclear doctrine.
The US hasn't explicitly specified its response, but has essentially said it will go full force and remove the russian army from Ukraine if nukes are used.
putins response was destroying ns1/2 with the implication that russia will attack EU energy infrastructure in response to a US escalation. This is a classic putin intimidation tactic, there is no conclusive proof russia did it, but everyone knows who did it.
Did Ukraine do it? Its unlikely Ukraine has the technical ability. US/NATO support is contingent on Ukraine doing the right thing and would therefore lose support quickly. The risk/reward isn't worth it.
Did the US do it? There is no benefit to them. They were against ns1/2 because of the risk of economic blackmail, which ended up happening as predicted. The US has no need of a false flag to escalate tensions as russia are doing that all on their own.
putin attacked ns1/2 to intimate the EU and US in response to the US hardline stance on nukes.
Not Russia. No need to blow the pipes up. All they had to do was say - we've lost a screw which will take years to replace, and close the damn pipe off. Why on earth would they blow it up when they can shut it down at the drop of a hat.
And Biden's deranged enough, no?
I apply the Daily Mail test. If the intelligence agencies that use the DM as a conduit for propaganda thought they could get us to believe it they'd have had it on the front page yesterday. Instead there was a guff piece about one of the Stephen Lawrence murderers taking a selfie in jail - last minute substitution?
Given the two main suspects, US and Russia, maybe listing the pros and cons for both?
US
Pros
- ensures NS1+2 are out of commission
- sends a message to Russia that two can play at targeting infrastructure
- sends a message that Joe Means Business or whatever
Cons
- pisses off Germany, and, by extension;
- pisses off the EU
- risks internal NATO dissent
- risks direct confrontation with Russia
Russia
Pros
- provides force majeure cover for failing to meet contracts
- sends a message to the West that it isn't just Ukrainian infra at risk
- if the EU wants Russian gas, now they'll have to drop the sanctions
Cons
- MAY bring Russian infra into play
Any I've missed?
If it's either of them, it was a miscalculation IMO, if it was the US it'll cost them in terms of overt trust in NATO and the EU, if it was Russia, well, Ukraine might find the next set of arms from the west comes with graphite warheads and a reduced willingness to not target Russia.
Mr Random Dude
'putin has only recently started escalating the discussion of nukes, previously it was rus media & various kremlin officials. He is hinting at the use of nukes to protect "russian" territory, which after the referendums includes Ukrainian territory. This is in line with russian nuclear doctrine.'
So no suprise in what Putin said.
'The US hasn't explicitly specified its response, but has essentially said it will go full force and remove the russian army from Ukraine if nukes are used.'
How?
'Did the US do it? There is no benefit to them. They were against ns1/2 because of the risk of economic blackmail, which ended up happening as predicted. The US has no need of a false flag to escalate tensions as russia are doing that all on their own.'
It's difficult not to conclude that USA has been doing a good job of escalating tensions since 2014.Anad along the way enriching the scions of Biden, Pelosi and Romney amongst others. And it is said Blackrock and others own a substantial chunk of Ukrainian farmland.
As to the Russians getting near the pipeline points of explosion unobserved by NATO (whom it seems)have been exercising in the are area recently, bloody good show if so.(could the pipes be blown internally?).
Putin's speech tomorrow will be an interesting read/listen.
@ could the pipes be blown internally?
yes: pipelines are maintained by remote vehicles (known as 'pigs') that swan down the pipe, equipped with all manner of things. Both NS 1 & 2 are 48 inches diameter: I invite you to envisage how big a pig you could comfortably get down such pipes. There are lots of different operations (generally benign!) carried out by pigging - search pipeline pigging images
Explosions from within pipelines aren't just easy, they are routine. That's how oil and gas are produced ! They drill down, sink a pipe (I'm simplifying here) and 'perforate' the 'casing' using explosives to allow the gas and oil to flow into the pipe.
Ain't industry wonderful ?!
stupid pigs? well, there are some dumb(ish) pigs in use: but why not use one of the really quite smart, capable pigs - the sort every long modern pipeline needs? Even the Russians can buy smart pigs.
For an explosion to occur inside the pipe, you'd need some oxygen
Yes, that why rockets don't work in space, and explosions don't happen under water! Oh, errr...
Nick Drew: "Yes, that why rockets don't work in space,"
I'm afraid Nick, that was a particually ignorant retort.
Rockets carry their own oxidiser onboard.
Explosions under water - same same. You keep the reagents apart until you want an explosion then put them together, until you've ignition, you mostly want to keep water out.
By the way, that's why all you saw bubbling out of the Baltic was methane. Because at the source of the US/Brittish set explosion, there was enough reagent to make the explosion and destroy the integrity of the pipe, but not enoough to keep the methane ignited while under the water.
Hydrazine, a rocket fuel, will strip the oxygen out of water. But that's pretty nasty stuff and difficult to handle.
You keep the reagents apart until you want an explosion
ergo
US/Brittish set explosion
yeah, right: the only people on the planet who know how to do that shit, obviously.
However, try as you might you will not have found me anywhere attributing these ruptures to Russia.
I see Bliken say the Nordstream sabotage presents a 'great opportunity'.
Add that Biden's comments about NS looks like they don't give a fig that it looks like they did it.
The arguments for Russia of over the US are looking pretty threadbare at the moment tbh.
As for it just being something that just happened, of course, in a universe of infite typewriters and monkeys yes, but such claims on the balance of probability looking more like loony co-incidence theorist wibbling.
"try as you might you will not have found me anywhere attributing these ruptures to Russia."
I don't believe I have attributed such sentiments to you. Normally if I want to reply to something someone has said, I'll quote that thing.
"yeah, right: the only people on the planet who know how to do that shit, obviously."
Yes, it's all of a part with, 'the Russia is the only state that knows how to produce the chemical compound, commonly called Novichok, despite one of the most advanced chemical and biological warfare centres in the West, being less than twenty miles from Salisbury.
With A'levels and a chemical formulae, a decent laboratory and funding, anyone could produce Novichok. But apparently the only people that can produce Novichok are the Russians.
But I digress.
It's not the fact that there was an explosion on the seabed, it the fact that the Baltic, but for Kalinograd, is more or less a NATO lake, you not only need to locate the pipeline on the seafloor, you have to have the means to deliver the destructive charge.
But in my estimation, the facts are:
1a. Biden back in February said, Nordstream would no longer be functional.
1b. That filth Victoria Nuland said the same thing.
1c. Blinken has practically boasted about destroying the pipeline. It's an economic opportunity for the USA. ( at the expense of an 'ally' Germany.
2. The normal media hysteria in the West about some Russian outrage or other, has died down. In fact, it was remarkably short lived for such a significant incident.
3. This wasn't an attack so much against Russia, or by Russia against the West, Russia certainly gets no benefit from destroying its own infrastructure. This was about the USA keeping Germany in the 'pig pen'.
There was a brief discussion as to how independent the UK actually is, given that we are an 'ally' of the USA.
Well, Germany was an ally too. This is what happens when you do something the USA tells you not to do. Some fukin' ally.
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