Monday 1 January 2024

2023 Predictions - Results

Last year's compo questions ran thus:
  • Will the war in Ukraine end? 
  • Will Oil average over $100 a barrel? 
  • Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen? 
  • Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time? 
  • Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024? 
  • tiebreak - a sport related prediction.
Answers:  No; No; No; Not yet (guilty on 7 counts, sentencing to follow); 2024???

Compo results: well, taken literally the UK recession qn was something of a boobytrap but everyone interpreted it as a Manifest Error.    (And given CU's proclivities vis-à-vis spelling, that seems fair.)  Taking it to have meant 4Q 23, the answer is ... we don't know yet, the data are not yet ratified.  It therefore means that, as of 1 Jan, there is an unusual "pending draw" between Anomalous Cowshed and, errr, myself.  We both got the first 3 answers right and put "yes but not this year" for SB-F's gaol-time and we both had a correct sport prediction.  But I dodged the recession question altogether, so later this year there's the possibility for Mr Cowshed to be the outright winner.

There's another subtlety:  if PushingtheBoundaries and Cowshed are ultimately proven right about the recession, Cowshed still wins because PtB's tiebreak answer was wrong.  But he'd push me back into third place.

Final complication:  there remains a logical possibility that SB-F doesn't get gaol time when sentenced next later this year.  Given what happens to official scapegoats in US financial cases, he can only really get off if Trump is elected and pardons him.  But he'll have served time prior to Jan '25 - so, rather than have yet another "pending" angle, I'm ruling that a "No" answer to the SB-F qn is wrong.    

Other answers of interest?  Several of you cynically reckoned SB-F would get off.  (Surely, he is the Scapegoat from Central Casting?)  There were two opposing sporting tie-break predictions on the Ashes: Sobers - great cricketing tag, that - reckoned Oz to call time on Baz/Ben Ball.  Well, it certainly looked that way early on, didn't it?  But not by the end.  And PushingtheBoundaries - another great cricketing moniker! - reckoned England to win.  And towards the end of voting there was a sudden rush of "> $100/Bbl" for the average oil price.  I couldn't decide whether those punters were trying to inject an element of contrarian thinking into the proceeding (- hope you didn't follow that up in the markets!)

Will be soliciting your 2024 predictions in a day or so.



electro-kevin said...

Will war in Ukraine end in 2024 - How ??? Ans No.

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel? - Turmoil in ME so Yes.

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen? - No. Odds are against. Just pure odds.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time? - Yes. He's soooo busted.

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024? - Starmer, so of course !

tiebreak - a sport related prediction. - Some lesbian or trans will get Sports Personality of the Year.

Jeremy Poynton said...

"Sobers - great cricketing tag"


Born into a cricket mad family, a weekend that my parents came to see me at school in Cambridge in June 1966 coincided with a test against the Windies at Lords.

As we drove down to Lords, Windies wickets kept falling - to my gloom. Arrived, parked, people still queuing to get in. Steward spotted my old man's MCC tie, and ushered us in

Little did said steward know, it was in fact the old man's Guides Cavalry tie, a dead ringer.

Sober was just in - with his cousin, David Holford, score around 100 for 5.

When play ended, the score was 369 for 5. We had witnessed perhaps the most sumptuous display of classical batting possible.

The state of Windies cricket now saddens me. For two decades and more they were just magnificent.

Whilst I am here, my prediction for 2024

If you think things are bad now, b'b'b'baby, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Caeser Hēméra said...

After last years success, my wings were thoroughly clipped this year! Looking forward to this years compo so I can get my Septic Peg crystal ball out.

electro-kevin said...

Was totally pissed when I did that.

Nick Drew said...

Surely not? I find that hard to believe ...

HYN, Kev

BlokeInBrum said...

Well I see that Camila Batmanjelly has bit the dust, so thats 2024 off to a flying start.

With any luck Zuckerberg will trip over a gold bar or something and do himself in, at least before he buys up the rest of Hawaii.

Anybody offering odds of Trump winning the election/dying in jail?

We are certainly living in interesting times. Future historians are going to have a whale of a time.

Happy New year to our hosts and the other denizens of this corner of the internets!

Anomalous Cowshed said...

Well, for this marvellous award, I would like to take a few moments to thank all of those who played a part, however minor, in this undreamt of success. So, my wife, my daughter, my mother - it is a true honour to have received some much inspiration over many decades arising from your unwavering support and true belief in my predictive abilities, in the face of many heart-breaking years of evidence to the contrary.

I must go no further before mentioning the truly fantastic, heart-warming and unshakeable faith shown by my dog, the landlord of my local, the neighbour's cat, and the presenter of my favourite radio show, who I have, in fact, never actually met.

Thank you, thank you, one and all, from the heart of my bottom.

And I'm fairly sure I was sober when I wrote it. Although there does seem to be a part of the recession question, where I no longer have a Scooby about what I might have refrained from banging on about.

Donald Trumpette said...

It was fixed. It was stolen from me, me, me.

I demand a recount.

Nick Drew said...

on the subject of Zuckerberg, Mr Brum - 2023 ended on a pretty hilarious note:

That's so funny, I think it deserves a post of its own in due course ...

BlokeInBrum said...

Considering the doomsday bunker/estate that he's building in Hawaii is probably going to cost >$100m I somehow think he can afford the loss.

A post about his shenaningans over there might be quite enlightening.

Caeser Hēméra said...

@ND - "Furlow-Smiles"? Could be a name out of Private Eye...

I wonder how many other execs have been deep in the cookie jar?