So here we are, crystal balls at the ready, testing our predictive powers on the year ahead. What will 2024 bring? Some of the big unknowns for this year are rather obvious "known unknowns", of course, but please address yourselves nonetheless to the following questions:
- UK GE: date (month); and number of Labour MPs after the GE
- US Presidency: who wins?
- Size of V. Putin's share of the Russian vote (as announced)
- By how much, and in what direction, will the FTSE100 change between midnight UK GE polling day and the end of 2024?
- Length of Sam B-F's gaol term upon sentencing (note: zero is a number). Extra point for size of the fine in USD
- Where will Man Utd rank in the Prem at the end of the '23-4 season, and who will be manager?
Go for it!
ND
12 comments:
1.July, early. Before the kiddiewinks break up. 335.
2. Haley?
3. 92.3125
4. Up. 3% or 200 points or so.
5. 20 years. $2Bln.
6. 7th. Ten Hag.
1. October. Expect some Halloween themed campaign adds - zombie Tories, bloodsucking Labour, etc.
2. CNNs ratings benefit enormously from getting to talk about Trump for months on end.
Functioning democracy is a looser
Democrats win, Biden technically President. More unrest and grumbling about cheating
3. 82%
4. Mostly flat, up by a small amount 20 points
5. 30 years. $700 million
6. 8th, Lopetegui
1. September. To minimise the turnout. 381. Starmer the Bland can expect many SNP and Welsh idiocy seats to fall to him. Plus the bulk of the 2019 Tory kingdom. He could the longest serving PM ever.
Or
He could be like Boris, who had that opportunity, and lasted just half a term.
2. Trump. Though he can’t hold office so his vice President stands in. I think I saw this happen on the West Wing. And on Veep. So it must be a thing.
3. 96%. Same as Zelensky’s.
4. Up 10%
5. 30 years. If fined $1 billion.
6. 8th. In a desperate attempt to regain fan favour, Wayne Rooney.
GE
Late September/early October - so I'll plump for October
Sunak will keep wanting to see if the polls bounce, but not get to Halloween and flu season as the NHS waiting lists and excess deaths start mounting up.
Labour seats
400.
Starmer has been gifted weak Tory and SNP leaders, and both parties in varying stages of meltdown. That should offset the traditional foot shooting season Labour has when victory looks possible.
US Presidency
Trump.
Usually the incumbent has the advantage, but as with 2020 and Trump, the incumbent is a bit of a prick publicly. Dems will withhold their vote over Israel, the MAGA crowd will be out in force.
Look out for the silly season to start when California has a proposition to secede not long after.
Russia/Putin
70%
They learned a few years back that being too obvious leads to trouble, so on this season of The Kremlin Husbands of Moscow we'll see Putin play at being contrite, recognising the difficulties they've been through and grateful for another chance to lead, blah, blah, blah. Cameras off, back to business as usual.
FTSE
+5%
Muted Santa Rally as the economy continues turning in to the Moog from Will o' the Wisp.
Sam B-F
99 years and a billion. Max he can get is 100 years IIRC, so they'll keep it to 2 figures.
Man Utd
9th, and Ten Hag.
Ratcliffe can't have too much influence over the January window, and ETH is the umpteenth manager to have a decent season, followed by a crap one, so the problem isn't just the manager.
If they're going to get rid, it'll be in the summer.
UK GE: Nov, 325 (SNP & LibDems must reckon on many split-vote gains)
US Presidency: Biden (actually, I haven't the faintest: scary stuff)
Putin's share: 83%, after a solemn recount
FTSE: 3% down (due to 1. above & resulting chaos)
B-F's sentence: 20 years, $100 m
Man Utd: 6th, Ten Hag
Isn't S B-F being let off altogether, having bribed ("donated to") enough of the right people? Oh no, I see they're just dropping the campaign finance charges i.e. the important ones - see above.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12913961/SBF-campaign-finance-donations-coverup.html
More importantly, Germany again.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/04/germany-emissions-hit-70-year-low-reduces-reliance-coal
Despite this fall in coal reliance, the thinktank said, “most of the emissions cuts in 2023 are not sustainable from an industrial or climate policy perspective”. Müller said: “The crisis-related slump in production weakens the German economy. If emissions are subsequently relocated abroad, then nothing has been achieved for the climate.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/05/sick-man-of-europe-what-is-happening-to-germany-economy
Apparently the problems are high corporate tax rates, an ageing population, 40% of transactions being in cash, and not enough fast broadband. So all they need to do is cut corporate taxes, open the borders, move finance online and develop mass smartphone/netflix/Amazon addiction, and they'll be as productive as the UK!
Such a pity. Europe only had one decent manufacturing economy. A pity to have it trashed, especially by a so-called ally.
OTOH, if no German politician can find the courage to name the perps, perhaps it's no more than they deserve. The memories of their earlier history, including the post war period, must be burned onto their souls. Sad!
Still, at least the Decline of the Productive West means we have fewer ships, guns, bombs and missiles to bomb random Middle Eastern countries. The Saudis spent 7 years bombing the Houthis with the best US kit their money could buy.
We couldn't do the Falklands again for sure, and there's no way we could return the WW1/2 favour to the Aussies* and Kiwis if China got stroppy.
I wonder how the Argentine armed forces stack up against ours now? OK, we have an airport, but aren't their such things as runway denial munitions now? And anyway, how would we get the planes out there? In crates?
* they may conquer peacefully - Melbourne Central Library's reading room was 100% Chinese students when I was there eighteen months ago.
1. November so Sunak can burnish his CV with 2 years as PM rather than 1. Election is lost and he's not very interested in anything other than his CV. Reckon Labour will get a similar amount to Tories at about 310 with the upstarts Reform/LD/SNP vying for power in a beauty contest. Perhaps a Tory/Reform government with Boris back.
2. US Presidency: who wins? Dark money and Trump
3. A modest 75.6%
4. Virtually unchanged to -5% as the fundamentals aren't changing. Country has no more assets to sell so will have to tax, tax, tax.
5. 5 years and a $3bn fine. He won't do the 5 nor pay up on the fine as it is all fantasy money anyway.
6. 3rd and David Moyes (Ferguson's choice.).
1. October, 298
2. Trump
3. 81%
4.-13%
5. 3yrs 55m
6. 5th Ten Hag
Happy New Year all! I also predict that I will get into an ice bath before the end of January and sit in it for 3 minutes.....not managed colder than 7.5C so far...Highly recommended! (Getting out is the best bit..)
Anon.
Such teasing.
However, for the record, Argentinia is like post soviet Russia. The only thing in plentiful supply is hunger, poverty and world class corruption.
The Argentines have the exact same airforce they had in 1982. Which was made up mostly of french 1960s jets. British 1950s bombers. And Pucara counter insurgency attack.
The newest fighter is a derivative of the German Alpha Jet. That wasn’t considered very suitable by NATO except as a trainer, and was made a second line, combat aircraft, emergency reserve, as recently as er…1985. The Argentine IA63 Pampa is a LESS advanced version of that Alpha Jet.
40 were ordered in 1984, to replace the Dagger/mirage losses from 1982.
19 have been delivered so far. Making UK procurement positively shine in comparison.
The Argentine Navy is under-funded and struggling to meet maintenance and training requirements; as a result, only 15 of its 42 vessels are in a condition to sail.
The San Juan submarine disappeared without trace
whilst on routine costal patrol in 2017.
Since then, no Argentine submarines are at sea at all.
The submarine arm was the force that had the most money spent on it post the Falklands. And was the most modern even before 1982. German coastal submarines. Still considered the best Diesel Electric Uboat manufacturer today.
BQ - thanks for that, it looks as if perhaps Port Stanley has a few years yet.
Incidentally in a rare 40 minutes in front of a TV I noted ads for BYD. now the world's largest electric car maker. Already a majority of electric cars on UK roads must be Chinese-made - Tesla 3s, MGs and Polestars.
Still planning to trash our steel industry I see.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/07/port-talbot-fights-to-keep-furnaces-burning
"Britain would be the only major economy in Europe and the G20 with no ability to make steel from scratch in a blast furnace, relying instead on imported steel for the aerospace and automotive sectors and to make hundreds of miles of railway track."
Utterly off topic - but - THIS!!!
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/01/if-fossil-fuels-come-from-fossils-why-have-scientists-found-them-on-one-of-saturns-moons/
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