Wednesday 4 January 2023

New Year Prediction Game 2023

 So last year the predictions were somewhat poor as we nearly all over-egged Boris. Under estimated Putin and thought covid was awful!

Everyone except Caesar Hemera - blimey he nailed it. Well done that man! 

This year let’s make it simple for us all? 5 yea or nea- 

Will the war in Ukraine end?

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?

Bonus answer for tiebreak has to be a sport related prediction. Mine is for Emma Radacanu to win Wimbledon. 


Caeser Hēméra said...

Who knew that TARDIS set I bought from the BBC in 2051, using some spare Bitcoin I found in the back of my digital wallet, actually worked?


There are more paths to the war ending than not, so there'll either be an official end or something of an "they think it's all over" with an "it is now" in 2024. A lot of it depends on events - events in Iran, consequences of any further call ups and weariness with Putin's missteps - but in order for Russia to win, they need a breather to recover, re-arm and re-plan, in order for Russia to lose, Ukraine just needs to ensure they don't get that breather and keep on with the attrition.


There may be the odd spike, but oil to head downwards as the recession kicks in, so no.

Musk's Moon Mission

No, it's going to be a bad year for Musk. Other than SpaceX, it's going to be a bad year for Musk, Tesla to hit troubles as it turns out its USP was liberals liked them. Liked. Past tense. Twitter to start hitting rocky shores, and no one buying his BS any more. His robot, self-driving systems and moon mission will not come to pass, and other than for a few wannabe techbros, his sheen will be permanently tarnished.


Maybe not this year, but he's going to be Made An Example Of, and even if he manages to find some way out of the US to somewhere without an extradition policy, well, in the words of Hans Gruber - they will find you, and he doesn't strike me as someone with the brains to fake his own death.


Yup. Between the BoE and the government you could certainly say we've a surfeit of tools, just in the perjorative sense.


Arsenal to win the PL, although it'll be a Leicester style one where they're helped along by the incompetence of the surrounding teams.

I also reckon it is 50/50 if we'll get a surprise GE this year. With the NHS falling apart and all of the nettle-grasping-avoidance of the last decade plus, they'll see something coming up that'll genuinely get the publics blood boiling and pull the trigger out of sheer terror that, if they don't, then they'll be obliterated rather than just have a 1997 moment.

E-K said...

... will masks and lockdown become a yearly event ???

Diogenes said...

I'll have a go

Will the war in Ukraine end? No as the Russians have shown themselves to be immune to sense when it comes to sovereignty. And if Putin goes (from a windows/an arrest/eating soup) then those lined up to succeed him as even more ruthless. Could be 3 or 4 years.

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?No. With CH on this as there's plenty of the stuff and the Saudi's have an expensive project out in the desert.

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?No. Twitter will take up his time - and his cash. But he'll be remembered in history as setting the way for others using techniques developed at SpaceX. Branson on the other hand ....

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?Definitely not. There is too much money in virtual currency* for the whole concept to be trashed by jailing him.

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?Again no as they'll fix the figures to find something down the back of the Downing Street sofa to temporarily boost their election prospects.

*Virtual money, like fiat money, is a great way of separating wealth from the masses. It's got a way to go.

Bill Quango MP said...

War ending?
The BBC had 5 academics, politicians, military and statesmen types ALL agreeing Russia would lose this year. Two predicted the recapture of all territory ever taken by Russia, ever.
Did not seem very plausible.

So, Probably not. The Russian Spring Offensive will be a more traditional Red Army, conscript minded, limited initiative, artillery led battle. Bound to make gains. It’s what it costs in Russian morale and losses to achieve. This is Putin’s 1942 Style push. A second chance for a first strike. With so much NATO and US intel it’s unlikely the Ukrainians will be caught out by surprise.

Putin could settle for a forever war. Low key, drone attacking Warfare by all sides for years.
The Ukrainian offensive will be the one to wait for.
Another year of war at least.

Will be some shocks. There has to be a bounce back sometime. $100 seems too high. Unless .. Taiwan… but if it is Taiwan, then oil could be $1 a barrel and still we would be in recession.

Musk. Crazy dude. No time to fly.

On jailing the thief, I think so. Amidst serious moves for the ‘ international crypto Federal Bank of America’ to police the world of unregulated finance and freeze the Chinese out.

Recession for final quarter unlikely. Facing your own dismal figures makes the crisis less. It’s hard to be lower than your own former lowest point. Takes real mismanagement. Rishi seems more on the ball than either of his predecessors. But he has few options.
If they let the energy bills continue to increase after April, as seems very possible, it’s a business recession for sure. With unemployment. HMTreasury will have to work out if it’s cheaper to pay people to do nothing at home than pay business to stay open. By Q4 the recession will have come and gone, or the Sunak government will have.

Wildgoose said...

Ukraine No. But there maybe a possibility of a Korean-style DMZ that "freezes" the war. Russia will keep what she has, only fools can possibly think Ukraine can "win".

Oil No. But that doesn't mean that diesel in particular won't be in short supply.

Elon Musk No. But all credit to SpaceX nonetheless.

SBF No. Too much money donated to the Democrats. Too much shady involvement in Ukrainian fund transfers. There will be some kind of deal and everything will be conveniently downplayed and "forgotten".

Recession Yes. But they may try fiddling the figures to claim otherwise.

dearieme said...

Stuff will happen. Fans will be struck. Books will be provided with turn ups.

People will approach the headwaters of Scheissecreek in a paddle-free modality.

The interesting question is whether, or when, the general public will realise just what a crime the official response to Covid was. Will there be a reckoning in 2023? (Nah: people are too apathetic and, in all likelihood, too dim.)

Caeser Hēméra said...

@CU - if only you'd waited a little bit longer, you could have filched Sunak's "Rish List" he trotted out.

Although not sure it'd take the unparalleled skills of Mystic Meg to guess which of those will and won't come to pass.

Nick Drew said...

In reverse order:

Tiebreak: England to reach semis of RWC

SB-F: yes, gaol for him. (But maybe not this year)

Musk-moon: no

Oil average >100: no. But if China's economy bounces back this year ... (a big 'if', given the covid situation there)

War: on balance, no, because "Russia can never (ultimately) be defeated". But I do believe Ukraine will score heavily when major fighting recommences (maybe with hard frozen ground in Jan-Feb - there's been no real winter yet in Ukr either.) And that could lead to something much more serious than we've seen so far. Stop reading now if you've had enough already.

+ + + + +

How come? Although L'il Volodya has been assembling his 300,000 rag-tag, ill-equipped alcoholics, the Ukrainians have assembled a further 200,000+ of their own, and issued them with Proper Kit + high quality Morale. Mr P isn't going to lose heart until he's tried his two big non-nuclear cards: (i) see if W.Eu could survive the winter; and (ii) see if he could conscript enough bodies to make a difference. He stands to be sorely disappointed on both points.

I suggest the following. Sometime early this year, one or other side is going to try something big by way of conventional land offensive. The net result will very quickly be further re-taking of land by Ukraine, possibly to a striking extent on at least one axis - though falling well short of re-taking the Donbass, still less any significant incursion into Crimea. But very bad indeed for Putin's "theory of victory in 2023" - and, of course, his standing in Moscow.

He will then need to decide whether he plays his one remaining conventional trump card: deploying his airforce (conspicuously missing from the theatre since about day 5). If this then gets seriously mauled - of which there's every likelihood, because it's just such an obvious move - Putin has literally nothing left but his nukes. As it happens, I'm not sure he dares squander his airforce. Either way, he'll be seriously looking at the nuke option, in a way he really hasn't thus far (despite the silly "remember I've got a big dick in my pants" stuff we've had from him on several occasions).

I can't guess what will happen at that juncture. Because I can't read Biden at all. Can Putin? Or is he, as much evidence points to, just a gambler?

Sobers said...

PS: sporting prediction: Australia to win Ashes handsomely, Baz/Ben Ball to hit the buffers hard.

E-K said...

I give up on predictions. I would NEVER have predicted this, for example:

Prince William attacks Prince Harry and in the one-in-a-lifetime fight (out of the entire Royal domain - think Buck Palace, Sandringham, Balmoral... and the surrounding land) Prince Harry ends up falling into a dog bowl.

What ARE the chances ?

dustybloke said...

1. No Putin will do a Sturgeon and keep it going to avoid the consequences of a conclusion.
2. Yes, the ecoloons are too important to the elites. Why “follow the science” when you can just make it up?
3. No vanity is an insuffient motivation to see it through
4. Yes and then commit suicide (!)
5. With Hunt the Funt and Fishy Rishi at the helm? YES

Caeser Hēméra said...

@ND - I'm not sure Biden is who Putin should be worried about, whilst Dobby the House Orc has been whining about the West, China has been cheerfully pouring water into the foundations of the eastern bits of Russia and the ex-USSR states relations with Russia.

If Putin decided to try out a tactical nuke then, assuming it actually explodes, then, whilst the West are still getting their boots on, expect Xi to show some "global leadership" to the chagrin of Putin as he sees the ex USSR -stans turn East and the eastern Russian territories start to turn from Moscow.

By the time the West gets around to responding, Putin will be realising just who the real threat to Russia was all along and all too late.

E-K said...

... Buster Bloodvessel of Bad Manners outlives Terry Hall of The Specials.


E-K said...

... that Shane MacGowan (could) outlive Buster Bloodvessel.

I'm done with New Year predictions !

PushingTheBoundaries said...

1. No
2. No
3. No. Chinese taikonauts or Artemis astronauts on the other hand...
4. Yes.
5. No.

Bonus: Opposite of Sobers. England to take the Ashes, with young Ahmed providing a 'Warnesque' performance for the bowlers.

Anomalous Cowshed said...

1. Ukraine: No. I can't see a situation where both sides (or all sides) would be happy with a mere cessation of hostilities occurring this year. And I can't see an outright military victory happening either.

2. Oil averaging over $100bbl. Nope. Can't see it. Maybe close to $90.

3. Musk In Spaaaace! No. 60th anniversary is 2029. Makes more sense to take the extra time and aim for that.

4. SBF? No. Or yes, but not this year. Don't see the wheels moving that fast.

5. UK still in recession by end of Q4? Can't see it. I think any recession won't behave "normally" a la the 70s or 80s, so limited effects on unemployment fr'instance. Bad year for VC/PE in tech, but not sure if contagion will occur outside of that.

Man City to win the Champions League. Ronaldo to get the sack again.

Nick Drew said...

Caeser H

Agreed, absolutely: Xi has always been the key 'interested spectator', assuming he has bandwidth for anything external to China once covid really starts taking a hold back at home in the manner some predict.

Here's an early, colourful taste of how the 'stans are seeing things these days:

You are right, too, about the << 100% likelihood of a Russian tactical nuke actually exploding as intended. Sadly, that means he'll lob in a dozen, hoping for a couple to work.

Anonymous said...

Love that Kazakh dude @ 4:58 above!

Suff said...

Will the war in Ukraine end?
No because the Neocons won’t allow it to. It’s a slow war of attrition and the Ukrainian will be a wasteland but we need to keep the money laundering going.

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?
Yes in the west. The current price is artificially low due to the high dollar value. How long will that last with the rise of the BRICS+ doing deals in alternative currencies and goods? The dollar and western influence was upheld around the world by a strong military presence backed by, the rule of law, an advanced educated industrial base with a positive cultural history ( the American dream, Hollywood, pop music). How does the rest of the world now view our non binary, de masculinated, climate neutral ( freezing and starving) future? The sanctions that the west did towards Russia when they stole private peoples assets sent a clear message to the rest of the world- the law is what we say it is and your money isn’t safe in western financial institutions. Expect Russia Iran.... to start increasing its interference in Syria and cut off that cheap supply of oil ( what’s good for the goose) The US reserve is nearly tapped out and with the green religion banning any form of cheap energy production without any viable alternative. The price can only go one way

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?
No. I think his priorities have moved. I think he will less publically withdraw from Tesla as they don’t become viable when the tax benefits are withdrawn. I actually think he will do ok with twatter ( as Trump knows anything that upsets the progressives and MSM is a money spinner). And with other social media outlets clamping down on “miss information” his free speech policy is a breath of fresh air. The swamp can’t cut him completely as they need starlink and his technologies to get stuff into space.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?
He’s been photographed with the Clintons and that’s a higher chance of Sudden Adult Death Syndrome than being a fullly vaxed sportsman. They only arrested him to shut him up. He was doing the prosecution’s job for them with his public statements and it was only a matter of time before he gave away information (see answer 1)

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?
I hope not the big collapse will be Q2 Q3 this year so that would require another 5 quarters of decline. Hopefully we will see sense and reject these ideological fairy tale policies but I fear our masters will just double down and of course change the definition of recession. so No is my answer
Any chance of recovery in the west will be led by the US as they have the theoretical checks and balances to correct the ship. A big tell is whether they can get Fauci behind bars for what he has unleashed on the world. Europe and the UK under the EU are fecked regardless

Anonymous said...

Will the war in Ukraine end?

Hmm. Can't see it myself. Russia is unlikely to take all of rump Ukraine incl Galicia, so as long as there's something called Ukraine, the US and its vassals will keep chucking weapons (and increasingly "volunteers") into it, hoping that "Afghanistan 2.0" has the same effect on Russia as Mk 1 did.

OTOH there aren't an infinite number of males of military age there, and the only one I know over here (aged 18, from Kharkov) is 100% determined to stay in the UK.

Of course should WW3 break out then the war might end, but will any of us be around to see it? I live upwind of GCHQ.

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?

No, unless China kicks up a gear which is unlikely given Covid ...but UK fuel prices will stay high

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?

No, China will get there before him. Need a good story as covid continues.

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?

Dem donor, Ukraine fund-fiddler, about as likely as finding Hillary's hard disk contents.

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?

Yes, even more if WW3 breaks out.


Anonymous said...

Forgot to say - Starlink and its imitators are an absolute disaster for astronomy. If Russia zaps them all they'll do the world a favour.

Anonymous said...

Starlink are 2/3rds of all active satellites. i.e. for every 1 satellite pre-Starlink, there are now 3.

lilith said...

I am no good at predictions, except that excess deaths will continue and the governments of the world will continue to say "nothing to see here". 15 minute cities will catch on. Harry will continue to spiral (and to take cocaine.)

hovis said...

have been away a while bit this is good stuff:

Ukraine War: Yes and No (is that an answer?) Enough of a conclusion, but low level Afghan level military 'tension' between Zelensky led Ukraine (will he continue is another question) and East.

Oil: Yes >$100

Musk: No Mooning for the 'saviour' of digital free speech - he isn't but better than what preceded him with the release if the Twitter files showing the deep state involvement in surveillance and the Covid narrative.

Q4 Recession - absolutely - Sunak et al has no desire to solve anything, as well as being part of the problem. Besides how else will CBDC / UBA / Social Credit be offered as solutions?

SBF: Nope, will be covered up / forgotten / erased - too murky.