Competition: Predictions for 2024

So here we are, crystal balls at the ready, testing our predictive powers on the year ahead.  What will 2024 bring?  Some of the big unknowns for this year are rather obvious "known unknowns", of course, but please address yourselves nonetheless to the following questions:

• UK GE:  date (month);  and number of Labour MPs after the GE 
• US Presidency: who wins?
• Size of V. Putin's share of the Russian vote (as announced)
• By how much, and in what direction, will the FTSE100 change between midnight UK GE polling day and the end of 2024?
• Length of Sam B-F's gaol term upon sentencing (note: zero is a number).  Extra point for size of the fine in USD
• Where will Man Utd rank in the Prem at the end of the '23-4 season, and who will be manager?

Go for it!

ND

is Hillary all better now?

Yesterday the global markets lost nearly 2% on fears that the US candidate Hillary Clinton had stumbled and was a bit ill.


Today the indexes have recovered.


It must have been a very nice get well soon card.


I do wonder about the autumn in the markets this year though, the ultra-low volatility has gone on most of this year at an unprecedented level...it can't last. Will it end with a bang?

Trump vs HRC - dystopia

So, as bad as things are in the UK where we have a ruling party fast going off the rails as the economy slows, the EU fails and the opposition provides no counter-punch, the US it seems is worse.

There, in deciding who should be Presidential candidates for November in the electoral college process, Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump have emerged as strong favourites.

Hilary, the wife of a former President, bankrolled by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Trump, a US chancer who inherited billions but has a charmless approach to telling home truths; they make quite a pair to choose from.

Which means, in reality, that Trump has next to no chance of winning; given the Republican's lost last time with a more centrist candidate, the odds of the swing states like Ohio going for Trump.

So HRC will be the next President of the USA, bar some crazy events which could always happen as we know. She will be an awful President, certainly as bad as Obama which is quite a low.

I thought UK politics was messed up, but when Samantha Cameron is standing for PM against Alan Suagr in 2025, I know we will have sunk to the level of the USA

Obama nailed on

TUESDAY UPDATE: GREAT COMMENTS ALL, GIVEN IT IS US ELECTION DAY TODAY WILL LEAVE THIS POST HERE FOR A LITTLE LONGER


Now, let's not be neutral here. I once lived in the US for a few years and if I did again now (and could vote!) I'd be voting Romney every time. (However, given that I lived in solid Democratic state California fat lot of good it would have done).

Having said that, it is interesting to watch the media at the moment. Desperate for ratings and attention, they collective zeal is to build up the race as much as they can. A close race is more exciting (or a landslide) and generates more interest.

Of course, in America, with the paid advertising portraying the other guy as the devil incarnate who will eat your babies, people have a tendency to get more strident than they do in the UK - where we tend to despite all politicians more equally. Especially of late where we can so easily tell that none of them are up to the job.

But in the US, the race is not that close. Romney certainly made up some ground in the campaign, but he started from a long-way back. There are some key trends in the US which affect the UK too, notably postal voting means a decent chunk of people vote before the end of the campaign. These votes have been going to Obama.

Another important similarity is that the US presidential election is a first past the post one, as is the UK. This means that vote share is less important than 'seat count' (in the US, electoral college votes). Here Obama is home and hosed. There are 5 really bit states in the US that count, NY, Cali, Texas, Florida and Ohio. of these NY and Cali are democrat and only Texas is Republican. This means any republican challenger has to get Florida and Ohio. Romney may edge Florida, but certainly not Ohio. Plus the Republicans have to make sure of all other non-coastal states and this is getting harder in Nevada and New Mexico as immigration rapidly mixes up the states voting mix.

All this means that Obama gets in by reckoning with over 300 Electoral College votes. The close race meme currently being pushed is a great one for media interest, but in reality Obama leads in all the swing states.

It is really hard to unseat and incumbent in the US Presidential Election, it happens very rarely and won't be happening tomorrow.