Friday 5 July 2024

Election Wash-up: OT

No top-line surprises, then (unless you are the SNP, maybe).  Turnout figures in due course - seems it was very low - for purposes of the supplementary Compo question when the full figures are in.

A majority of this kind is always possible under first-past-the-post, particularly with so many heavy-duty spoiler candidates in play - surely, on a scale unprecedented in its depth and extent this time?

Anyhow, all pundits are agreed: Starmer's support is very broad but very shallow.  Hard to disagree.   One of Drew's Laws of Politics is: the bigger the majority, the less meaningful is the result.  Large numbers of dumb voters who simply like feeling they are on the winning side - of which Murdoch is just the ugliest & and most prominent.  Conventional wisdom is that it'll be damned hard for Starmer to enforce discipline.   (Is there anything Starmer will wish to do that actually requires a majority of that size?)  He'll be very happy he stuffed the candidate list with placemen and non-entities, and carefully deselected the identified troublemakers of the left: Mandelsonian power politics in play there.

So here's an open thread, starting with a few random early thoughts of my own.

  • as regards the long game, the whole thing now comes down to how Farage conducts himself.  I personalise it thus because he is and probably will remain a one-man band.  If I was him, I would invest in some very comprehensive personal security.
  • on the green/left/Gazan side: although altogether less strategically interesting than Farage it'll be interesting nonetheless to see how the assorted malcontents - now holding quite a lot of seats - conduct themselves.  I actually think Starmer will be happy to have them making extreme spectacles of themselves, as an ongoing reminder to his own people of the merits of his quietist project. 
  • I sincerely hope that each and every Tory MPs who contributed to foisting Truss onto the leadership ballot paper came unstuck yesterday, and will never be heard of again.  How could anyone sit in the same building as her for more than 10 minutes and not notice she is stark, staring, batshit crazy?   If, as some have said, it was a Johnsonite manoeuvre to facilitate his re-entry, well, for self-centred irresponsibility that's up there with Joe Biden's senile vanity.
  • wouldn't it be nice if Starmer would now cut Murdoch cold-stone dead at the latter's every blandishment?  That's the way to parlay a majority like this.
  • this isn't anything I thought I'd ever find myself writing: but based on his recent "realist" (I think he means realistic) utterances I actually think David Lammy might make quite a good Foreign Sec.  If I'm right, he's gonna piss off the Left even quicker than Starmer.
With Starmer's very recent incarnation as Mr Growth-at-any-Cost - which we must believe was primarily a formulation against the challenge of "how ya gonna do it without borrowing or tax increases?" - the opening for BlackRock et al is plain: and they'll be up his trouser-legs like a rat up a drainpipe before he gets to sit down.  Cue the biggest PFI binge in history ...

Over to y'all.


UPDATE:  a great phrase in a Graun article:

Labour’s ambiguous mandate, both overwhelming and unconvincing


Anonymous said...

Have you seen Tom Skidmore, former Conservative Energy Secretary, seriously arguing in the Guardian that Rishi lost because he wasn't green enough?

This guy was a minister!

When Rishi Sunak personally decided to row back on net zero and climate action, promoting new oil and gas and opening a new coalmine, I stated that this would become the greatest mistake of his premiership. It turns out it was also his greatest political error ...Net zero is the greatest economic opportunity of the decade, bringing with it jobs, growth and regeneration. Sunak instead preferred to follow Reform’s corrosive culture war politics, which brought zero votes. The same could be said for the party’s incessant attacks on migrants, on international humanitarian law, on international students, on our institutions and even family meals on a Friday. Again, the pattern was the same: hate not hope, blaming others, blaming each other....The country has not only voted for change: it has voted overwhelmingly to deliver the net zero mission that Keir Starmer has set out as one of his government’s five key priorities.

Anonymous said...

Chris Skidmore. What a cretin.

dustybloke said...

I agree that Farage is now the bogey man of the globalists who want the USA and UK under their rule. Starmer is in thrall to the Bliar as his sudden realisation of biology, after the big boy showed the way, illustrates. The Dems con of the USA that Dopey was “sharp as a tack and fit as a fiddle” indicates someone very powerful was behind the scenes who could manipulate the media, the FBI and DoJ.

Old Git Carlisle said...

Noticed union flags, Scottish Flags and Welsh flags waved in Downing street but no St Georges nor Red hand endorsed union flags. Wonder why thought Starmer for whole nation.

Diogenes said...

Have a look at Lord Ashcroft polls. Seems Reform took a large chunk out of the Conservative 2019 vote which explains why they veered to the right, unsuccessfully. You can't copy an original.

If they want those voters back, then the choice of the next leader will be crucial. Patel perhaps? Some good odds available at the bookies.

On a side note can't see Rishi hanging around for more than a month. He may wish to but the look on Akshata's face suggests he'll have to get away pretty sharpish.

Matt said...

I've been badgering the wife for a couple of years now about moving out of the UK when we retire (currently 53 - so a couple of years until I get my hands on the pension). She's been reluctant as she doesn't want to be far from friends & family. However, she is now actively considering options she wouldn't previously (Hungary and Poland).

My plan had been to move the Ireland where my father hails from, however they are more woke than the UK so that was quickly out of the question. Also considering places that are closer to home and speak English to avoid the barrier of learning a new language. Crown dependencies are one option, but would welcome suggestions from others as to good options.

Nick Drew said...

Not Canada then?!

Do you mind hurricanes?

Matt said...

@ ND

Canada is more woke than Ireland (if such a thing is possible).

Not a fan of hurricanes, but probably less destructive than Labour, so I guess it would be considered. Are you thinking somewhere in the Caribbean?

Anywhere there that the natives are friendly?

Anonymous said...

Canada is going down the tubes even faster than the UK. Trudeau imports a million people a year, mostly Indian or African. Vancouver is becoming a Chinese city.

County Donegal is pretty, close to the North (also pretty), and very old school - the only place in Ireland not to approve of "gay marriage".

Nick Drew said...

Canada - indeed, hence my comment!

I hear good things about St Vincent & the Grenadines. They have a "socially conservative" approach there, too (- perhaps like Donegal?)

Anonymous said...

We must talk about Ed!

Anonymous said...

Any odds on how long before Lady Macbeth aka Harridan Rayner and her gang of lovelies put a pillow over Starmer's face? Note the curious re-entry of Diane Abbot; nothing to see here.

Nick Drew said...

We will - trust me, we will

Anonymous said...

@ Matt.
Isle of Man? Crown dependency, fairly independent,low taxes but probably lousy weather. Having said that I've never been.

Matt said...

It's an option. Some talk of them banning "comeovers" from buying property in an effort to address the cost of housing. Same problem there as the mainland UK - lack of supply.

Old Git Carlisle said...

See that Downing street now festooned with St Georges flags. Did sir knee bend respond to Guido Fawkes post???

Anonymous said...

"Isle of Man?"

Great place, the accent has a bit of Scouse about it IMHO, takes some time to realise you can leave your phone on the pub garden wall without having to check every 3 seconds for it. Fast food speciality - the kipper burger.

decnine said...

Somebody should speak up for Liz Truss. You think she's crazy. Is that crazy like Javier Millie or crazy like Jeremy Corbyn? If she's crazy I don't care. At least she's a Conservative. I only hope the non-Conservatives went down with the ship rather than taking safe seats in the lifeboat.

Nick Drew said...

I mean utterly unhinged, fit for the bin, just a bundle of ambition and fantasy

have you ever met her?

the Parliamentary Conservative Party that promoted her is genuinely not fit for government

(I absolve the membership because 98% of them would not have met her, and/or are simply dreaming an understandable but inchoate dream about finding Thatcher2, vintage about 1984)

AndrewZ said...

Nick, why even mention Liz Truss? If she hadn't been on the leadership ballot paper then we would just have had a few more weeks of Rishi Sunak as PM, and we would still be in the same situation today. If Sunak had been the kind of politician who could deliver real change then Truss would have been quickly forgotten, and would now be irrelevant for a different reason. Her brief tenure was just a spot of turbulence during a much longer descent.

Alastair said...

Wasn't the reason the MPs whittled it down to Truss and Sunak because they thought she was an obvious no-hoper and they would get Sunak?