Election Wash-up: OT

No top-line surprises, then (unless you are the SNP, maybe).  Turnout figures in due course - seems it was very low - for purposes of the supplementary Compo question when the full figures are in.

A majority of this kind is always possible under first-past-the-post, particularly with so many heavy-duty spoiler candidates in play - surely, on a scale unprecedented in its depth and extent this time?

Anyhow, all pundits are agreed: Starmer's support is very broad but very shallow.  Hard to disagree.   One of Drew's Laws of Politics is: the bigger the majority, the less meaningful is the result.  Large numbers of dumb voters who simply like feeling they are on the winning side - of which Murdoch is just the ugliest & and most prominent.  Conventional wisdom is that it'll be damned hard for Starmer to enforce discipline.   (Is there anything Starmer will wish to do that actually requires a majority of that size?)  He'll be very happy he stuffed the candidate list with placemen and non-entities, and carefully deselected the identified troublemakers of the left: Mandelsonian power politics in play there.

So here's an open thread, starting with a few random early thoughts of my own.

• as regards the long game, the whole thing now comes down to how Farage conducts himself.  I personalise it thus because he is and probably will remain a one-man band.  If I was him, I would invest in some very comprehensive personal security.
• on the green/left/Gazan side: although altogether less strategically interesting than Farage it'll be interesting nonetheless to see how the assorted malcontents - now holding quite a lot of seats - conduct themselves.  I actually think Starmer will be happy to have them making extreme spectacles of themselves, as an ongoing reminder to his own people of the merits of his quietist project. 
• I sincerely hope that each and every Tory MPs who contributed to foisting Truss onto the leadership ballot paper came unstuck yesterday, and will never be heard of again.  How could anyone sit in the same building as her for more than 10 minutes and not notice she is stark, staring, batshit crazy?   If, as some have said, it was a Johnsonite manoeuvre to facilitate his re-entry, well, for self-centred irresponsibility that's up there with Joe Biden's senile vanity.
• wouldn't it be nice if Starmer would now cut Murdoch cold-stone dead at the latter's every blandishment?  That's the way to parlay a majority like this.
• this isn't anything I thought I'd ever find myself writing: but based on his recent "realist" (I think he means realistic) utterances I actually think David Lammy might make quite a good Foreign Sec.  If I'm right, he's gonna piss off the Left even quicker than Starmer.

With Starmer's very recent incarnation as Mr Growth-at-any-Cost - which we must believe was primarily a formulation against the challenge of "how ya gonna do it without borrowing or tax increases?" - the opening for BlackRock et al is plain: and they'll be up his trouser-legs like a rat up a drainpipe before he gets to sit down.  Cue the biggest PFI binge in history ...

Over to y'all.

ND

UPDATE:  a great phrase in a Graun article:

Labour’s ambiguous mandate, both overwhelming and unconvincing

New UKIP required but no one going for it in the leadership election

It is hard to look away from a sickening car crash, as we all know, but Labour's woes have dominated the summer silly season with their own ludicrous gaiety.


However, and more importantly too if Corbyn does win, is what is happening with UKIP.

If Labour are to meet their deserved sticky end, then an alternate party is required in the electoral system. For nationalistic reasons the SNP won't stand, if they did Labour would be in big trouble.

UKIP are also having a leadership election, with Diane James a strong favourite. Sadly, her prospectus is wafer thin and full of sound bites. Cleary she is thinks this will get her over the line without having made and Clegg-like commitments that will come back to bite her late.

But, but, but,

Politicians above all must take the world as it comes, not as they would like it to be.  Brexit is done, the main purpose of UKIP nearly complete. As such, the party needs to move on and find a new focus.


Luckily for them, Labour has gone cuckoo at the same time, allowing an opening. There are votes for a fiscally liberal and socially conservative party to be had, a party that stands up for the people and against oligopoly in either private or state sector. A party proud of the UK, using that energy to build the future outside of the UK.


This party cannot be called UKIP or branded UKIP. It need not focus solely on immigration, it can build instead on Grammar school proposals and developing the health service, whilst maintaing the military and reducing foreign aid. Not reducing corporate taxes and instead reducing EU inspired VAT.


Plenty of room, just needs a new logo, colour and direction to be set.


Of course, I have a sneaky feeling if UKIP won't do it, then their ex-leader may do it anyway. And without it, a party of the past has no chance when the Tories come to steal your mantra, just ask the Liberal Democrats.

Brown's Valantines gift to the UK. A February election.

Political Betting have rumours of a February election to be announced tomorrow.
Edward Heath lost his February gamble in 1974. Would Prime Minister Brown, not known for taking big risks, really call an election with so little backing him up?

Well, I would theorise that are some pretty good reasons why he might.
1} Things aren't going to get a lot better, they may get worse. The good Christmas retail figs {6%} masked a pretty dismal December {0.3%} with lousy economic figures for the April quarter, caused by the snow and the fragile recovery faltering. Plus the good, if a little spun, unemployment figures, are unlikely to be repeated with all the seasonal lay offs and some big real job losses already announced {First Quench - Corus - } now about ready to join the lagged statistics. More are on the way. Adams childrenswear failed again today.2,000 jobs at risk. Cadbury?}

2} Gordon can sidestep the leaders debates by going early. There's no time, and it isn't agreed. Even if he has to do some, he can insist on his format of 2/3 Labour audience which producers will have to agree, as will opposition if its just 5 weeks to go.

3} The move will rattle the opposition, especially the Libs and Nats who probably aren't ready. Labour can call on a union loan/gift for a war chest. Would Unite refuse? Who would they rather have in power. Gordon or Dave? Even CWU, who this government has tried to privatise still donate to the Labour party.

4} The Iraq enquiry is making Labour's chances harder. Some bad news on how unprepared the army was by procurement failures today, Goldsmith and the big Blair on Friday. A PR failure for Gordon Brown. But the Prime minister's own 'Cast Iron' guarantee can be neatly avoided. If he is fighting an election he can't be called..As stated in the Chilcot letter.

5} Gordon is televising the 'economic miracle' that sees the UK finally crawl out of recession. It hasn't been televised before. {0.4% is the GDP guess from the experts. If its ,say, 0.6% Gordon and Darling can claim they have steered the country through the economic icebergs and are the most trusted to go full speed to a safe, painless recovery.}
Today's ICM poll is just marginal enough for a hung parliament or feeble Tory win.
T:40% -La: 29% - Li: 21%
It can't get much better for Brown. But it could get a lot worse. Strikes are looming BA , Underground strikes, mail strikes...

This time the good news could launch Gordon to a hung parliament.

There are still plenty of options against. Odds still appear to be 40/1 so the bookies still fancy May/June. Tomorrow could just be yet another damp squib relaunch. We shall see.

I'm a celebrity.. to get you out of here.

Margaret Moran is back in trouble again today. The F/T has the scoop. It seems Mrs Moran has used her Commons staff to work for Equality Networks (EQN), a non-profit group of which she is the non-remunerated chair. Michael Booker, her fiancé, is one of two company directors. The Financial Times goes on to say they have seen hundreds of documents dated from 2006 to 2008 show that Ms Moran used her parliamentary staff to write funding bids for EQN, telling one that the salary the individual received was tied to working for EQN. Her constituency office also helped organise “great networking opportunities” at EQN conferences with ministers personally invited by Ms Moran.

Recently the home flipping, dry rot claiming, scandal hit MP has received an endorsement from the local Luton Labour Party who are very happy with her. They are happy for her to stand and would not consider deselection. It seems that the sea change in politics has not penetrated Luton yet. We fully expected Gordon Brown was preparing to over rule the local party and find a method of removing a damaged candidates, with Ms Moran featuring top of his list. That was before these new allegations.

The reason for wanting Maggie gone immediately is obvious. A well known media celebrity, Esther Rantzen, has threatened to stand to oust Marge if she runs again. This would be hugely damaging to the government. It matters not whether Esther is a good candidate, or what her policies are on European farming subsidies, or her views on Luton transportation schemes. It only matters what her views are on Margaret Moran. These are what will fill the news columns and airwaves. With every breath she reminds the voters of Luton and the voters of the UK, about Labour sleaze. Never mind that Andrew Mackay of the Tories has been claiming double bubble with his wife Julie Kirkbride, a Tory MP, and both have also just received the full and insane backing of the Conservative Association. As yet they don't have a celebrity standing against them.

Mrs Rantzen can appear on Television or radio just by calling a few old friends. She has a media platform. She knows how to operate. Politically she may come unstuck. But the first attack by Margaret of "What does she know about politics? What skills does she have to represent the people?" will be countered by her Childline charity work.

The expese claimer of the year MP who charges £22,500 for her lovers house to be repaired versus the nice lady who knows that dog that says sausages. Its media Gold!

The actress Joanna Lumley appears to be coming out today to announce a hard fought victory and a total government U-Turn over its policy towards ex-servicemen. The government has discovered that it didn't matter what it said or how it presented its case. Joanna had a perfectly clear message. She pushed it and the hapless Phil Woolass has been forced to cave in. Esther will just bring more of the same to Luton, Lab majority 5500. Iwouldn't think that would be enough of a bulwark to stop an Esther victory.
And even if it was, why risk all the negative publicity, the repeating of excessive expense claims, charges of corruption etc, when a new shining light, fourth way candidate, can be found within weeks, so ending the story.

So we expect Margaret Moran, and some over toxic tainted MPs to be packing up from at least one of their houses soon. Ah well...That's Life.


reselectd full support etc.