Last week, a little OT exchange took place BTL here, thus:
Anon: What I'm not so sure of is if this is a Stalingrad moment (in reverse), or if it's the Third Battle of Kharkov in reverse, where von Manstein recaptured a lot of the territory being fought over now.
ND: Not sure everything needs to be mapped onto a historical precedent**; although when it can be done convincingly, it can offer useful insights. What's interesting to me about this (apparently significant) Ukrainian incursion is: (i) they - the Ukr side - are following Soviet doctrine! Many writers have suggested it was unwise (see 2023 offensive campaign) to attempt to school them in western military ways, when so many of their senior officers would already be very well educated in a different school. Or they may have found some kind of workable synthesis. (ii) they seem to have managed Surprise: certainly tactical (generally possible if you put in enough care & attention) but maybe even strategic (unusual - but very desirable). Remember, this is a chess game where both sides can usually see all the opponent's pieces - the perennial Russian challenge out on the flatlands, and one which in the west (Eu, USA) we don't really have, the battlegrounds being characterised so much by extensive geographical relief features
A week on, things have developed a bit: we know it genuinely is a significant incursion, not merely a quick slash-and-burn raid. But the full motivation and end-plan for what Ukraine thinks it's doing is still a matter of analysis & speculation. Here's mine:
Backdrop: for as long as the Russian army can maintain its brutal discipline (i.e. can keep throwing in the cannon-fodder remorselessly) there is nothing plausible that Ukraine can do, however resourced by the west, against eventual Russian "success" in fully capturing and occupying the four Ukranian oblasts it claims as its own, absent something game-changing. (Just for the record, from the very beginning my line on this has been "and what's to stop them?") One Russian milblogger has put this very neatly, describing the Russian operation as a tunnel-boring machine: it may sometimes need to slow down if it encounters something a bit flintier than usual, but basically it will "calmly" (his word) grind on relentlessly to wherever it wants to go.
Although in hindsight one can fault the 2023 Ukrainian counter-offensive (some of that fault lying squarely with western advisers), it proved beyond a doubt that Russian defensive preparations along the entire front as far as the Dnipro (though not necessarily south and west of that) are sound, and that without massive airpower that Ukraine will never enjoy, no sustained, strategically useful breakthrough on that very long front is achievable.
Therefore: since nobody can foresee a Russian event "favourable" to breaking this iron deadlock - certainly not before the US election - more creativity is required from Ukraine. Up until now, that's been represented by (a) a stunningly successful Black Sea operation; (b) an equally stunning drone campaign against the vast swathe of ultra-vulnerable targets across heartland western Russia, particularly oil facilities - and air bases,/ aviation ammo dumps which have taken some really serious blows. (Note something else we've said from the start: Russia can replace absolutely anything except its airforce, which has caused Putin to husband it cautiously.) But neither can be much more than a major, suppurating thorn in the bear's flesh, the pain and cost of which it can tolerate indefinitely.
That being the July 2024 starting-point, Something Else had to be tried before November. Well, this is it, and it looks entirely logical. Apart from making the really obvious remark that the Russian ground currently dominated by Ukraine cannot remotely be held for more than a few weeks at the outside - and so Zelensky won't be intending to - I won't today be prognosticating on this ground offensive per se. There are however a few more remarks we can make, in addition to the truly impressive 'surprise' mentioned above.
- The Soviet-plus-western doctrinal synthesis being displayed by Ukraine is very 2024, and very nicely purposed to the precise conditions. For a strategist, this is a fine thing to behold (and for Russia, absolutely appalling: think what could be done with this-plus-airpower ...) A combined-arms assault, with depth, under cleverly assembled air-defence and electronic warfare cover, proving that such things are possible even from a sorely-stretched nation on the modern "transparent" battlefield.
- The above point on Putin and his jealously protected airforce has been reinforced in spades. The obvious immediate counter to a fast-moving assault deep(ish) into undefended open country is tactical aviation. As for the past 30 months, it's conspicuous by its absence (not 100% absent, but not remotely committed to the task).
- Very smart of Kyiv not to base this offensive around the newly-arriving F-16s. As regards aviation, things can only get worse for Putin: his airfields, aircraft and ammunition being steadily depredated, with the F-16s still to arrive on the battlefield.
- Just as the Donbass "tunnel-boring" represents its monstrous strengths, deep Russian weaknesses - in very many dimensions, military-technical and political - have been brutally been exposed over the last few days. The embarrassments are set to continue for many days to come.
- Putin really, really hates what's happening. He's swallowed a load of humiliation over the decades, but this is being dished out by Kyiv. (I confidently await BTL comments that assert it's actually the US 9th Ranger division in Kursk.) But as regards his response, of course that could go either way.
- Not only is he determined to husband his airforce, we see he's utterly determined to stay with the daft-but-significant rhetoric of "Special Military Operation" / "just a terrorist provocation" etc etc. This is very telling.
- Even a fortnight of incursion has tremendous long-term consequences for Russia.
- To repeat: think what could be done with this-plus-airpower ...
24 comments:
It's not really been a good war for Putin, between this and the Wagner coup, if any part of it was to advertise how strong Russia is, then it's certainly been somewhat Ratneresque.
I'm wondering if the aim is to prepare for a Trump presidency, if Trump is determined to make a deal to bring peace, makes sense to have a few items on the table.
If so, Putin might also want to think what the plan is if Trump leaves them twisting in the wind. The Ukrainians have been adept at making the Russians pay a premium for their invasion, I should imagine if they're left to Russia's non-existent mercies, they'll ensure Moscow foots a bill Putin might not be able to cover.
Thanks Nick.
"He's swallowed a load of humiliation over the decades, but this is being dished out by Kiev."
Not really. I imagine most of the planning and 100% of the kit and intelligence came from "NATO". Same for the Black Sea stuff.
One thing I'd love to know and which is probably closely guarded is - how did they achieve such surprise? Sad pics of oblivious civilian vehicles being shot off the roads by Ukrainians, also sad pics of non-oblivious evacuating civilian vehicles holding up Russian convoys which meant they were stationary targets.
I gather the US has pretty much 24/7 territorial satellite coverage to 5cm/pixel level, some say Russia can only have worse coverage for x hours/day as satellite orbits over - but it's hard to find even vaguely reliable information on this subject. VOA has plenty of propaganda but is low on facts.
(Did you see the Pembrokeshire DARC announcement?)
*sigh*
Anon, though the satellite coverage is of course western, and proportion of the kit, I can assure you not an ounce of the planning was. Nobody in NATO (let alone in Ukr) trusts Germany one iota, it is riddled with Russian agents
you are of course right about the surprise (see post) - positive proof of no NATO involvement and an intelligence failure possibly even more extraordinary than 7.10. And Soviet doctrine is so strong on the point! A Ukrainian masterpiece of маскировка
"Russia's non-existent mercies" - Caesar, Russia have been plenty merciful, which is why Kiev doesn't look like Gaza City. They're not savages.
But I'd still like to grasp the satellite situation.
As you say yourself, the ground "cannot remotely be held for more than a few weeks at the outside". So, Zelenskyy is spending thousands of lives to achieve...what? He is only helping the stated Russian objective of demilitarising Ukraine by throwing away his own soldiers on some pathetic military grand-standing.
Anon 10.00 am. I'd think by now that the surviving Ukrainians would be expert leaders, tacticians and fighters in their own right. They probably have a lot to teach Nato !
"Nobody in NATO (let alone in Ukr) trusts Germany one iota, it is riddled with Russian agents"
How hard would it be for US/UK to run the war remotely (choose targets, feed real time info on Russian movements etc) outside of the official HQ (Ramstein?) ?
I see what you mean re Germany, but it would have been very naive of Russia not to have left agents/sleepers in place.
From Lord of War:
"At the NATO air base in Geilenkirchen, where reconnaissance aircraft are based, a case of drinking water contamination is being investigated, writes the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.
▪️Previously, a similar incident occurred in the German Air Force barracks near Cologne. A hole was found in the fence, and problems with the water supply system were found, Spiegel magazine wrote."
Wildgoose.
I think you miss the point of the raid.
Ukraine has t the manpower for Russia style slaughter of their own men, for attrition purposes.
What the incursion has done is shown that the miles and miles of border is not defended. The Ukes went in. Frightened away the border and police units. And began occupying.
And Putin has NO manpower within reach. He has to call from the frontlines.
And quite clearly, they have to disengage first. Find rail transport. Reequip. Etc.
Imagine that! The entirety of the Rus Fed border is only defended anywhere where Ukraine main forces are facing them.
Which means the border is porous.
So the Russians from now on will have to reassess their dispositions. Strength the border. Deploy more mobile units away from the front. And artillery. And armour.
And, as ND said, their irreplaceable airforce. Which has yet to show up. Probably fearing the whole commando is a bait to destroy them.
It’s a blow for Russia.
What if Ukraine enjoys their central holiday so much that they take an autumn city break in the south too? Or pop up to see the northern lights in the far north for a week or two?
If the Ukrainians can pull back before the vengeful elements of the Russian ‘special military re-occupation’ return, then it will have been a huge success.
Like large scale allied commando raids in ww2.
Think of the intel captured? The morale damage to the civvies. And the prestige! That lost prestige. So hurtful to dictators.
And xi. President Xi
Looking on in dismay at his land grabber, west defying, friend. Who is ruining it for everybody!
Sorry Bill, but that's nonsense. Russia has a huge border. It is lightly defended out of necessity. That has always been the case and probably helps explain the historic paranoia of the Russian state.
It has been repeatedly remarked upon that Russia has retained substantial reserves available in order to counter any NATO attack.
So, no need to withdraw any frontline troops. Indeed, the Russians appear to be increasingly successful right now, probably because Ukraine has weakened their own defences in order for Zelenskyy to pull this stupid PR stunt.
@ Wildgoose, so, lets get this right. Russia is actively prosecuting a war with Ukraine but, notwithstanding all those "substantial reserves" you reckon it holds against, what, maybe Estonia (pop: 1.3m) invading it tomorrow?? - Russia decides not to place ANY of these substantial reserves in its border areas with the very country it is actively attacking (and which I guess you think is itself actively being steered by that very NATO), but rather to leave that border as open as its very long borders with anyone else?
Either you think Russia is stark staring mad and is somehow entitled to breeze innocently through life untroubled by obvious contingencies, or your own judgement is pretty suspect.
Reminds me of the old French saying: this dog is very naughty: when its attacked, it defends itself. Well, naughty Ukraine.
I don’t know if it’s a stupid stunt, or not. Bold, certainly.
Foolhardy? Possibly.
But it’s also very obvious Russia didn’t spot it. Was not prepared. Isn’t prepared.
If they can’t counter this incursion after a week, then their mobile reserves are either committed elsewhere. Or unavailable. Or there aren’t any.
If Putin’s men are advancing elsewhere, and end up in Kiev next month, then he was right not to worry about it.
If Zelensky’s troops are still camping on the central front, with nearby towns and villages being evacuated, then Putin looks very weak.
All I ever do is point out obvious facts. Which turn out to be true.
Why don't we check back in a month and compare the territories held before the PR stunt and after the PR stunt?
The scientific method in action. A testable hypothesis.
Also in this series:
- Germany or France: which country has the bigger population?
- Australia or Bangladesh: which country has the bigger landmass?
- How many divisions has the Pope?
Very scientific.
Well... partly because of the stupid Covid response, partly because of the war in Ukraine and, admittedly, partly because of Brexit the UK has suddenly turned communist.
Cost of living crisis and uncontrolled immigration, you see.
What Labour have been doing (including with the train drivers) is as astonishing for its boldness as its speed.
If only the Tories had used their majority so effectively they might still be in existence and in power.
... and our country might not be over the cliff. We are now in freefall. There is nothing that can be done to save us.
electro-kevin said...
If only the Tories had used their majority so effectively they might still be in existence and in power.
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Soon as Clegg was dumped, they should have scrapped The Inequality Act and got us out of the ECHR. Instead, the buggered up Brexit, made a complete Horlicks of Covid and wrecked many peoples lives and made immigration even worse.
Pah
Off topic, but it looks as if the chickens are coming home to roost vis a vis the triumph of the therapeutic society.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/aug/17/children-disability-benefits-england-and-wales-resolution-foundation
Children in England and Wales aged 15 or 16 are now more likely to be receiving disability benefits than adults in their 20s to 40s, according to research highlighting a sharp increase in claims resulting from conditions such as autism and ADHD. In a new report, the Resolution Foundation thinktank points out that the number of children whose families receive disability living allowance (DLA) has more than doubled in the last decade, to 682,000. The biggest shift has come among teenagers, with 8% of all 15-year-olds receiving DLA last year, up from 5% in 2013.
As a result, the research finds that it is only among adults aged 52 and above that the proportion claiming disability benefits is now higher than for 15- and 16-year-olds.
The thinktank says the increase in DLA payments has been “almost entirely driven by awards made to children whose main condition is either a learning difficulty, behavioural disorder or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)”.
This government is the epitome of evil and deceit. When does the King intervene ?
ADHD. A well known benefit scam. Have kids to father anon, raise them badly... claim for ADHD which is a 'high rate' benefit. Fast passes at theme parks, the lot. Brother David's family were well into knocking out delinquent kids... my own sons are yet to produce their own and at a fraction of the rate of theirs.
So Zelensky has made a salient - so what. The gas junction is useful but hanging on to it probably not viable - boom.
The meat grinder goes on and on and on, the (near) West is practically impotent, hardly a shotgun shell between us and we do what the USA says. All Putin has to do is hold his nerve and keep going. Sanctions etc are as usual useless after the first flurry. All we can do is try and keep the cost to Putin high(ish) but he comes from a low cost base.
All this will drag into the realm of General Winter and a bit more power and gas line bashing and civilian attrition The question is what happens with the US elections. Which if Europe was any use would be irrelevant. An unknown unknown.
If Harris gets in then a bit more vigour re Ukraine may materialise. If Trump gets in then I think he will be read the gipsy's warning and also find room for a bit more action. But Putin looks like he will battle on.
Think forward 100 years. Ukraine is a bread basket, a hedge against long term climate troubles and a good income stream and political influence in a hungry world.
Putin can keep this game going a long time, to stop him means taking a bit of pain. Diplomatic handwringing will not do the business. Watch that potty.
EK - and more gloom from the Guardian - in the comments to this Pollyanna-ish report
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/15/the-guardian-view-on-a-level-results-day-great-expectations-have-been-met
"I get to teach them after you've finished with them, and frankly, I'm very alarmed. They don't like to read, they don't like to write, and when they tell me in the next breath they want to be a lawyer, that concerns me. I know that sounds like a Daily Mail-esque attack on young people, but I have seen a marked decline since the late 1990s. I simply couldn't assign the amount of reading I was excepted to do as an undergraduate 40 years ago: I wouldn't have a revolution on my hands, they just wouldn't do it and be amazed I even thought such a feat possible and expected. My generation was afraid of failing and being slung out, they're not, because the university isn't going to sling them out."
"It seems to me to be absurd that 1/3 of students can acieve a top A level grade. Grading is either absolute or relative.If absolute then certain standard criteria must be achieved to warrant a particular grade.It is self evident that a 1/3 of this population does not achieve this standard. If relative what is the point of accepting 1/3 are the best if we are trying to discover the best 5 to 10% should be the range. It simply devalues achievement"
Even though I only teach informally, I identify with what you say. When I was asked; "why isn't there just an app for that," my instinct was to step back. When my students were with me on a hospital ward, they were astounded to find there was no mobile reception and the hospital wifi was dire. I was amused. They were even more taken aback when I spued some "obscure" pharmaceutical factoids to enquiring medics. When asked how i could possibly know this stuff, i smiled and said, "you need to know why things work." Still puzzled why there were no apps, 4G or wi-fi in the 21st century, my students got a wake up call when there was an acute emergency on the ward and I was again able to "spue" out essential info, one of them admitted it would have been slower to look this up. I summarised their placement by reiterating; "you need the facts, to know why things work the way they do. You may need to extrapolate, interpret and think outside the box. The books and apps you may use are the beginning of your professional wisdom, not the total sum of knowledge. Good luck."
I've thought of an advantage of Harris winning. Instead of saying "the people who run Russia are drunks" we'll be able to say it of the USA.
TASS are reporting that if you want to escape decadent liberal values and the cancel culture, you are welcome in Russia. Visas will be offered.
https://tass.com/politics/1831019
Not sure if you have to move to Kursk though.
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