Start with Ukraine. Zelenski's 'Victory Pan' of earlier this month is so off-beam, it simply serves to illustrate the impossibility of 'victory' by the standard of his stated war aims. I won't waste space pointing out why. Desperation stuff, ahead of the US election.
I fact, it's so off-beam, and he has often proved to be quite a subtle guy, I could even imagine that his real audience is internal - some truly unrealistic hard-liners. Look guys, this is what it would take, right? Now look carefully - do you seriously imagine any of this is going to happen??
Either that, or he's losing it (Heaven knows, he's been under monstrous pressure for a very long time) & it's a big mis-step. Even the seasoned chess players in the Kremlin must initially have laughed out loud (- until they start thinking like I did above).
But then ...
... the North Korean thing**. Could you imagine anything more calculated to swing the dial back the other way? - in several places around the world where it really matters. And not just in political terms: Russia seriously doesn't want S.Korea becoming a material backer of Ukraine. Or Japan. More desperation stuff.
Why did China allow this to happen? Is Xi really happy to have N.Korea as an outright proxy in such a tangible & risky way? Or does he even have control on what Kim Wrong'Un does any more? Have keen will China be to see Putin transfer missile technology to its rogue neighbour? Even Lukashenko is publicly breaking ranks on this one.
And how does this go down in Tehran? The dimensions and angles are endless.
Trump will be in his element if he wins next month. He just loves swirling, ambiguous situations, where his scope for crazy, unpredictable interventions is maximised.
ND
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** Every soldier there's ever been knows the feeling of being in a long line to get issued with ill-fitting kit in various shades of green. It'll be "present you bare left arm for the needle" next. Happy memories!
8 comments:
What!! No comment about Israel?
I’m not sure now why, when I learned that Russia had actually started the invasion of Ukraine, exactly why I thought the effects would be so far-reaching. I suppose a lot of our thought processes are based on gut reaction and intuition.
But whatever the reason. I suppose at least those of us who thought that way can see why we figured this wasn’t just some event affecting people far away about which we know very little. Even though it is quite far away and we do know, mostly, very little.
It was the most visible symbol of not only the post Cold War era, but the post post Cold War era ending. We don’t know exactly how our futures will look and how the world will change. But hat we can see is all the pieces (or a lot of them) being thrown into the air and waiting to settle into their new patterns.
@anon - I'm not sure Israel are making any strategic mistakes.
That's not to say I like seeing what Netanyahu is unleashing, but the regional governments aren't exactly fond of Palestinians - as they have a habit of making themselves quickly unwelcome as refugees in the area, apparently assassinating your host's leader for talking to Israel, or trying to stage an internal rebellion, doesn't get you brownie points - but have to keep their populations moderately content. So lots of words.
It's clear the West hasn't the backbone to do much beyond tut at Israel, Reagan and Thatcher were both prepared to use a rolled up newspaper, whilst modern governments left of those two won't.
And as long as Iran are the losers, most of the regional powers are fine with that, and Iran are in no position to wage an actual war.
So, unless Israel goes really beyond the pale, it's difficult to see anyone taking them to task, or there being too many long term consequences, short of a clone army of Corbyns getting voted in across the West.
What strategy, whose strategy? The US does not want to get involved - they are not very good at it but have plenty of money but no usable manpower. OK so long as Ukraine still has blood to spend. Europe cannot get its act together, has no money, could be useful fighters but preferably not. Europe is behind the curve in persons and materiel.
The N Koreans change the calculation. Even if only used as 'back office' grunts they give Putin more push-power in the short term. Add in industrial capacity and they might effectively overun Ukraine forces.
If Biden wins we might just see Putin hold back a little - to avoid the US delivering too much advanced materiel, just keep the scrap bubbling along. Play Grandmother's Footsteps (works for Israel). Time is on Putin's side.
Trump is more of an unknown quantity. Ukraine (and Palestine) mean nothing to him - they can be flattened. But - but US interests in the world may encourage a slightly more vigorous stance at least for Ukraine. Not enough for Trump to get a slap in the face from Putin but not nothing either.
"If Biden wins ..." I suspect you are hinting that the Dems will shoot Kamala, jail Trump for it, and declare The Vegetable re-elected nem con. Sounds plausible to me.
Kamala who? it's still the shuffling old boy's party. The people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.
Meanwhile the Persians have been mullered (and mullahed). Put not thy faith in theologians.
Are there actually any NK troops in Ukraine? I see lots of Russian troops with NK flags, aren't they just trolling?
I think the Norks blew up some roads leading from the SK border a few weeks ago, might have been a Reuters report.
Struck me as a pre-emptive defensive measure in case of US/SK retaliation.
If so, suggestive, in that NK may not be certain of Chinese backing, if their focus is on Taiwan, which then gives the possibility that Putin and Lil' Kim thought this one up themselves, or maybe the Chinee might move soon.
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