Thursday, 16 January 2025

Trump: using the levers of his very great power

A longstanding strategy which is often attributed to (e.g.) Israel is to nurture the reputation of being outright crazy, with the 'benefit' that everyone else thinks:  they're crazy enough, they really might do it!

Re-enter Donald Trump, who is already claiming - probably with justification - to have been instrumental in the (putative) ceasefire in Gaza.  It's pretty obvious his influence is already being felt elsewhere too, such is his hard-earned reputation for maverick behaviour, no guesswork required.  What interests me most is that over the past few weeks he's been showing some serious understanding of just how far this could take him, and just how extensive are the levers of (indirect) power he will enjoy.

Long-time readers will know I often praise Mandelson for having a genuinely broad and creative approach to what can be done with power.  There aren't so many with that degree of lateral thinking.  We been given glimpses now, as to just how widely Trump is casting his gaze and, allied with his "tariff is my favourite word" weapon, it's pretty revolutionary.

Start with his designs on US territorial expansion, a topic possibly considered dead since the Alaska purchase of 1867.  Greenland.  Canada!  People are already sketching out how it might be done.  Then think about Europe.  "Unless you guys increase your defence spending, NOW, to 3% GDP, I'm withdrawing from NATO.  You have three months to pass the legislation."  And so on - no need to give the man ideas.   

Perhaps Mandelson isn't such a bad choice for Ambassador after all.

ND

21 comments:

Clive said...

What Trump has done (nay, is doing and will no doubt continue to do) is to blow a loud — and deserved — raspberry to the collective coterie of goodthinkers (on both the left and the right) who have not only bought into the intellectual trap but who have convinced Serious People the world over that “we can’t do anything because of everything”.

Anonymous said...

I worry then about WW3. Netanyahu knows Trump holds Israeli defence in his hands (although I imagine there'd be a real risk of Trump's assassination), but he doesn't bankroll Russia.

I'm not sure I can imagine Russia settling for anything less than something which would look like Ukraine's defeat to Congress. So, Trump calls their non-bluff - what's he going to do?


Anonymous said...

(I see that Israel have started the "peace deal" by slaughtering another 70 people)

dearieme said...

"a topic possibly considered dead since the Alaska purchase of 1867." The US bought what are now the US Virgin Islands from Denmark in 1917. Denmark, note!

Matt said...

If he can get the UK to extract more North Sea oil & gas and ditch the turbines (windmills) then I vote for us to become part of the USA.

Anonymous said...

"a topic possibly considered dead since the Alaska purchase of 1867"
Meanwhile Hawaii became a state in 1959. The possible statehood of Puerto Rico is an ongoing issue.

AndrewZ said...

Trump has a reputation as an effective dealmaker, and also as someone who might utterly destroy anyone who crosses him. This means that he can apply "carrot and stick" tactics very effectively, because people will take both parts of it seriously.

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile TTK signs 100 year alliance with rump Ukraine. Given the 100 year gap between Victoria's Diamond Jubilee and Blair's election, it's an interesting bet whether either party to the deal will still be there in a hundred years. I see Muhammad is now the #1 boys name in England and Wales.

Caeser Hēméra said...

It's going to be interesting at the very least.

A lot of the modern "rules based order" can be tracked back to the Atlantic Charter and planned Four Policemen - and, as with policing in general, the plan was the police to have more flex than the policed.

Even with the watered down version we got, it was very much a Western iron fist in an internationalist velvet glove. Problem being Western leaders letting the iron fist rust, whilst keeping the velvet glove plush, until our leaders were only interested in servicing the glove.

Trump looks to be intent on not only fixing the fist (a good thing), but casting aside the glove (a bad thing.) Have to see where this goes.

I am, however, going to enjoy all the isolationist MAGA types doing a reverse ferret, and stating how very wonderful it is the US is going try and annexe various places. I've already seen one or two do screeching u-turns even Starmer might blush at.

Anonymous said...

OT, Polly is telling us that we can save the NHS by getting as many vaccinations as possible. But she reports that lots of NHS staff are refusing jabs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/17/toughest-winter-nhs-history-hospital-trolleys-nurses

"In 2024, the number of children receiving a first dose of the MMR vaccine fell to 88.9% in England, the lowest level for 14 years, resulting in significant measles outbreaks."

Me no understand doctor. Surely the only kids getting measles will be the unvaccinated?

Tangentially, I see a lot of stories about fit, healthy footballers collapsing - this happened just the other night in a non-league game

"The start of the second half was delayed after Stortford's Jaden Ogwuazor received medical treatment for what was believed to be chest pains - he was replaced by Mark Haines before the whistle was blown, leaving the field on a stretcher to respectful applause from both sets of fans."

Elby the Beserk said...

"Anonymous said...
(I see that Israel have started the "peace deal" by slaughtering another 70 people)"

Hamas delayed the signing, as usual.

And a reminder. Hamas are Islam's Nazis. Wanting to exterminate ALL Jews. The people of Gaza the same. All Hamas had to do was to release the hostages way back, and they would have less blood on their hands. This is their doing.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/03/poll-71-of-palestinians-support-october-7-massacre-majority-wants-hamas-returned-to-power-in-gaza/

3:58 pm"

Elby the Beserk said...

And spectators as well. With regard to athletes, I gather the number collapsing with heart conditions in the past three years way outstrips the total for all previous years.

Coincidence, of course. What I do know is how glad I am that Lils and I refused the jab. I'd done enough research on previous failed attempts at a CB vax, all killing the animals using in testing, to know there was no way I would have it. And I'm as healthy an old bugger as you will find.

You may or may not have noticed that all producers skipped the animal test phase this time round.

Coincidence, I am sure.

Elby the Beserk said...

In the best of all possible worlds, Trump could herald a second American Revolution. Certainly he seems much better prepared and armed than last time round. And I look forward to how he will αδράξτε τους όρχεις μακριά off Starmer. Who so revolts him he got no invitation to the Inauguration

Anonymous said...

What's a "CB" vaccination?

Elby the Beserk said...

Sorry CV. Coronavirus. As the context suggests,...

dearieme said...

Yeah but they were stolen not bought.

dearieme said...

I had a hospital appointment a few days ago. The Knuts in charge had ordered the staff back into masks again. Really we should hang a few of these buggers pour encourager.

Sobers said...

There was a BBC InDepth piece the other day on the rise of 'vaccine hesitancy' (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jgrlxx37do). They were shocked to discover that some people consider they were lied to about the covid vaccines. They didn't bother to point out that the things they now admitted in the article (the danger that the AZ vaccine might kill you stone death within days of taking it, or the likelihood of the Pfizer/Moderna one to give young men heart inflammation, or that the vaccines didn't give any protection against transmission despite categorical statements to that effect by the medical authorities) would have been painted by themselves as 'misinformation' only a few years ago..........

jim said...

I think we are seeing the work of the White House opticians fixing the 'look' of things.

A bit of razmataz for Trump before the great arse is planted in the great seat on Monday.

Does anyone believe this ceasefire is anything but a stepping stone on the road to nowhere? A convenient marker as the US changes president. After that we wind the clock for the next go. Just a poundshop pair of specs for the chavs - made to last ooooo 2 weeks.

Now about that nice cold country just north of my Scottish golf courses - wouldn't want anything to happen to it would we.

Elby the Beserk said...

@dearime

Masks. Have an image I captured during the not even an epidemic of 'flu. Posted on X by a UK surgeon. Notes that masks - and most wore surgical splash masks - are not intended to trap viruses, can't trap viruses (in or out) and are designed to prevent bacterial infection between patient and surgeon (blood splashes/bone splinters) and vice versa (dribble).

I have to say one of the insane delights of the not even an epidemic (have the data to back this up if needed...) was watching masked solo drivers.

One can only assume their masks were to make sure they didn't give themselves Covid.

Anonymous said...

Let's just say Trump gets a deal out of Russia - can anyone see, say, UK energy prices coming down, NS1/2 back in action? US are doing very nicely thank you out of LNG, and you don't even need to bribe the German Greens. Funny how the spiritual descendants of the Greenham Common crowd are all cheerleading for "standing up to Putin".

Elsewhere, our Chancellor's visit to China reminds me of an HP Lovecraft line, or is it Algernon Blackwood, about someone walking "between lines of nameless guards to a certain and familiar doom".

Talking of foreign agents - we are just so cheap these days.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/18/labour-trade-links-china-uk

"despite rising fees, the 150,000 Chinese students at British universities still make a massive contribution to the sector. Seeing more Chinese finance companies working in London would bolster its credential to continue as a major international finance hub....sectors such as high-speed rail or automotives or renewable energy would at least offer a basis for getting access to Chinese knowhow and capital."

"Kerry Brown is director of the Lau China Institute, King’s College London"