So where would the gas come from? Well, "imports": but lack of detail on this is just one element of the hyperbole, and his statement isn't any kind of practical plan. But the point remains: the more wind & solar in a power fleet, the more strategic, long-term[2] backup power is required. Right now, batteries aren't even remotely candidates for this, and won't be within a realistic planning period. Pumped-storage hydro is great but in limited supply. Imports of electricity are what Germany relies on right now but the Scandinavians are getting pretty testy about this - it plays havoc with their own markets - and may well pull the plug.
Which brings us to our own shores. Large-scale build-up of solar and wind - check. Growing electricity demand (after more than a decade of decline) - check. Declining nuclear capacity[3] - check. Reliance on imports which might not be a practical proposition indefinitely - check. So: continued, nay, growing need for gas-fired backup - check. Even Little Ed Miliband realised this before the election, and now plans to retain the full 30-35 MW of our existing fleet[4] in his feeble "100% decarbonised by 2030, oops, make that 95%, it's what I always meant, it's the same thing" non-plan.
Here's the thing: these things are easy for a politician to say but that's not enough. Capital plant can't equally easily be made to stand around doing nothing all year, but spring into life with ultra-high reliability on the odd, unpredictable occasion it's needed to be in action for a week or so. That's not how the world works.
To be fair, HMG has gone one step further and has come up with a new subsidy for which backup gas-fired plants would qualify - but that's only the financial aspect. The practical and physical aspects are legion, not least because if Mili's plans for decarbonising home heating progress[5] the overall scale of gas infrastructure[6] will be diminishing materially, and it would be comprehensive extant infrastructure paid for by someone else (as it is at present) that a rarely-used gas-based backup system would parasitically depend upon.
Yet another facet of the infeasibility of Miliband's plan. He gave a very upbeat (and in fact, rather good - in political terms) performance in front of the Select Committee last week, and one can easily see how Labour MPs who don't understand the subject matter (evidently including Starmer and Reeves) would be inclined to view him very favourably and trust him implicitly. But it's all destined to hit the rocks of hard reality at some point. When? I'm not sure. Meantime, a heap of subsidy-contracts are gonna get taken by some players - and paid for by us.
ND
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[1] ... but music to the ears of hard-pressed Siemens!
[2] In this context, 'long-term' means weeks. Batteries are only good for hours - which is very useful for some purposes, but not for Dunkelflaute
[3] Hinkley Point C start-up is a distant prospect, and the existing fleet is in decline, even if its life is prolonged to the max and the ONR throws safety considerations to the winds
[4] Numbers vary from document to document
[5] His targets won't be met, of course, but the gradual replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps is inevitable, even if at infinitesimal pace. Ditto EVs
[6] By 'infrastructure' I mean not only the pipelines, storage facilities and LNG import terminals, but also the commercial and 'soft' aspects associated with there being a vast amount of gas sloshing around the UK all the time & particularly in winter: lots of long-term supply contracts, gas traders, commercial, engineering & tech expertise, market liquidity etc etc - in other words, a thriving, extant gas industry of critical mass.
13 comments:
It’s not that I’m not amenable to these arguments (I am). Nor is it that they’re inaccurate or not based in fact (they both accurate and factual).
The problem is they are essentially political arguments. You might stretch this to “economic” arguments but economics and politics are intertwined. They’re technical arguments. And technical or opinion or philosophy based arguments can’t trump politics. Yo do that, you need more votes they the next guy and parties which can form a government to support your fave policies. Which you don’t have. And won’t have.
Don't quite get your point there, Clive: are you saying that a mere blog writer is just wasting his time? That we shouldn't bother to discuss it?
PS if you think this is my only platform for pursuing these ideas you are wrong ...
"gradual replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps is inevitable"
I see, so resistance is useless?
You could replace the words "gas boilers" with "Native Brits".
It's wrong to take pleasure in others' sorrow, but I can't help enjoying the Guardian and BBC reporting on Trump. If only the Guardian would open comments, my day would be complete, but they can only afford to employ a few moderators now.
No, no, not at all Nick!
What I meant was, the path has been chosen and there’s no knock out argument against it strong enough to move the political dial.
Yes, Reform could get it, but it’s vanishingly unlikely. Unless that happens (and even if it does, it’ll probably be too late to make any difference) the Miliband policy or some close relation of it is how it’s going to be. Like it or lump it.
Anon @ 5:48 - no need to go OTT here. It's just a technology thing. Greater availability + tech advances + marketing + genuine benefits in some specific application + fashion + subsidy = slowly increasing uptake over time. Dunno what the asymptotic 'maximum' is, but it ain't zero. People will carry on adopting air fryers, too.
Few politicians are willing to go far down the compulsion road on this stuff (despite the NGOs and civil servants egging them on). Look at Miliband backing off gas-boiler fines & dates, and EV fines & dates. And he's the man who was going to "make it socially unacceptable to oppose windfarms". Yeah, yeah.
Anon @ 5:48 - no need to go OTT here. It's just a technology thing. Greater availability + tech advances + marketing + genuine benefits in some specific application + fashion + subsidy = slowly increasing uptake over time. Dunno what the asymptotic 'maximum' is, but it ain't zero. People will carry on adopting EVs, too. And air fryers.
Some times it will be sensible, sometimes not. FFS, in Germany there has been a massive, economically inexplicable fad for having a bloody great battery in the cellar for several years now, notionally to make the proud owners immune from intermittency. But it's really just a fashion statement (and damned expensive, too). Even the battery makers don't pretend there's any genuine benefit - they just gleefully make the sales.
This isn't fascism or immorality, it's human nature.
Few politicians are willing to go far down the compulsion road on this stuff (despite the NGOs and civil servants egging them on). Look at Miliband backing off gas-boiler fines & dates, and EV fines & dates. And he's the man who was going to "make it socially unacceptable to oppose windfarms". Yeah, yeah.
Be interesting to see the effect of Trump on all this.
China are playing a blinder on this, burning coal a l'outrance while cornering the market in batteries, wind turbines, solar panels. Destroying Northvolt and Britishvolt.
The thing is that in the west, cartels and price-fixing get you in a lot of trouble if discovered, in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China they're state policy.
there's been very little wind for a couple of weeks, and last night I think 64% of electricity (which we are planning to double) was coming from gas (which we're planning to trash). Not sure the sums work out.
A hefty amount was imported - maybe 9%, and another 9% was the Drax Canadian forest scam. Wind was 5%, today it's down to 0.44%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2025/jan/21/centrica-may-close-uk-largest-gas-storage-site-is-the-energy-system-really-ready
"One reaction to such warnings-cum-threats is to say Centrica is engaged in self-interested lobbying in search of its long-desired long-term deal with the government that would also cover eventual conversion of Rough to store hydrogen, the coming energy source (possibly) for the UK’s industrial plants in the 2030s."
Centrica subsidy farming is a fact not "one reaction".
Yup: check our Centrica thread. They Have Form !
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/search/label/Centrica
UK hydrogen really is an example of "if wishes were ponies beggars would ride". To make hydrogen you need lots of electricity, just when
a) we are only just hanging onto with gas plants giving 60% of it
b) we are "planning" (I use that in its broadest sense) to double electricity production, just to replace gas and oil heating
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