It looks for all the world as though Trump, against all his self-vaunted reputation as a dealmaker, has rather publicly gone into bilaterals with Putin on a basis that may be designed to achieve something for "America First", but nothing whatever for Ukraine. And maybe that's exactly the correct summary of the situation.
But even if he has, Putin has also made some capital errors in this process: he's wetting himself with such pleasure at being talked to again by someone other than China and NK, it's not clear he can help himself.
Just count his well-advertised desiderata: I'm not sure which, if any, count as Red Lines, but just look at the list.
- Russia gets all of the oblasts of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (Kharkiv has sometimes featured on this list, and we know what he really wants is Odessa, for a free crack at Moldova and total blockade of Ukraine from the Black Sea)
- Ukraine to undergo regime change (we must assume he has a List of Names), and a programme of 'denazification' which is a long list of demands in itself
- Ukraine substantially to disarm
- NATO to withdraw from X, Y, Z (list varies), and deploy no forces whatever to Ukraine
- Ukraine never to be admitted to NATO (sometimes demand extends to EU)
- end of all sanctions etc
- return of all assets (no doubt "+ interest" etc)
- end of all blacklistings, charges of war crimes etc etc
- return to the comity of nations in all dimensions, G8, sports, etc etc: (we may guess he has a list of specific showy performative demands to seal this)
- tickets to the Oscars, Wimbledon, Pope's funeral
- I have probably forgotten a few
So Putin won't get all this (that's putting things mildly): so he risks looking like he's spent a helluva lot of blood and treasure for equivocal results. May not go down well back in Moscow.
OR: he simply wants to set Trump at the throats of Europe. Now that, he might achieve. But not all of Trump's merry men are knaves or fools, by a long shot. And not necessarily the bombastic, unequivocal, easily-understood 'victory' Putin would be hoping to celebrate in Red Square, even though it might be epoch-making in the long run.
This ain't over by Xmas.
PS, I didn't miss the interesting BTL suggestion from Mr Cowshed that Trump wants to set Putin up against Xi. Nice theory! Even more difficult to imagine, though.
PPS: Forgotten a few? Didn't even mention return of the small Kursk salient held by Ukr since last August!
ND
61 comments:
For all my life, it seems, the likes of the Guardian have banged on about the threat to European countries from neo-Nazis. It has always turned out that these people either don't exist, or consist of three drunks, a twat and a madman.
In the Ukraine, by contrast, there are apparently actual, genuine neo-Nazis in non-trivial numbers. The Guardian and its pals seem to have no substantial objection to them.
It almost tempts me to look up what the Guardian's attitude to action against Herr Hitler was before The War.
Oh! Did you ever? This account is a bit mealy-mouthed but the thrust is unmistakable.
https://www.durham.ac.uk/research/current/thought-leadership/2024/01/newspapers-are-clearly-keen-to-avoid-mistakes-of-wwii/
“return of all assets“
I doubt Ukraine will return any of those 500-1000 Russian federation vehicles that those farmers carried off in the great Russian rout of 2022
"he simply wants to set Trump at the throats of Europe"
You can blow up Europe's cheap gas supply, doing YUGE damage to European (i.e. German) industry, and they'll pretend it's a mystery who dunnit.
But tell them that they have no place at the table, but their job is to clean up afterwards, and they'll remember the insult for years.
"Men avenge slight injuries, but not grave ones" as Machiavelli noted.
Why should Trump 'do anything for Ukraine'? Apart from those mythical minerals Ukraine has nothing the US wants - except holding back Russia from Europe. And why should the US care about that?
I suppose the US sees Ukraine as Europe's problem, we helped the US poke and prod the bear and then did nothing useful when the bear stirred. We ran scared (for public consumption) of nuclear retaliation when such a thing was totally without any credibility. But behind that we turned out to have minimal stockpiles or shell making capability. European politicians knew the cupboard was bare, that was the real reason nothing was done. Shiny brass buttons and not much else.
The messaging is curious, Europeans are presented with the 'poor little Ukraine' schtick but in Yankee Land the message is 'jumped up comedian and dictator'. This is at odds with the usual 'Russia all bad' story. We might ponder why.
Perhaps US strategists have bigger fish to fry. The threat to the US over the next 20 years is not Russia or Europe but China and possibly Asia. Let Russia and Europe waste their energy squabbling over a few cornfields while the big boys concentrate on the real problem.
Which leaves Europe with the problem - what to do when Putin has another go. A useful (to the US) legacy of the Trump diplomatic 'coup'.
Well, Trump (only about a third of the way through his 100 day sprint) doesn't necessarily have to set Putin (Welcome To Russia : Pop. 100m) against Xi (China: Pop. 1000m) directly, but either create a situation where Russia begins to consume Chinee assets, including government bandwidth, or is diverted to serve US interests.
We have to assume that Foggy Bottom isn't completely staffed by nutters. Rubio would seem to be somewhat hawkish with regard to the CCP.
Russia had a plan for a EUSSR v2.0 involving the 'stans. Plus Syria, at one point. Turns out the Africans got a lot further down that road than Putin did. The Russian Empire grew by learning how to wallop the Ottomans over about 150 years or so.
Directly south of Crimea is Ankara. Tehran is disturbingly close to the Caspian coast. The land corridor contains Georgia, the Azeris and Armenians. Ankara might not give too much of a monkey's about them.
Who cares if Russia wallops the Iranians?
Things get a bit tricky then. Short hop to the Gulf, but also Pakistan (nukes!) and India (ditto).
Combined population there is 1,600m or so. India and China have form.
Unless I'm missing something, India doesn't appear to have popped up onto Trump's radar.
Still, 60 odd days to go, eh?
I wish people would get the story right. Is Russia a shambolic collection of drunks and kleptocrats, not unlike the UK*, or a clear-eyed, laser-focused bunch determined to recover Kazakhstan and Kirghistan, but practicing first on smaller places. Do they intend "seven countries in five years", as the US did?
* https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/20/the-cannabis-farm-scandal-how-a-rogue-lettings-agency-destroyed-countless-homes
Did you know there's a Stephan Bandera Museum in London? Amazing.
https://ounuis.info/museum.html
Totally OT, I see Airbus are opening a new wing plant in Belfast - is that related to NI's ambiguous single market position?
It's impressive how EU / UK border controls seem to be no problemo when it's something really important like Airbus.
Also, looks like the electric HGV is still on the drawing board
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/19/nikole-bankruptcy-protection
"In December 2023 Milton was sentenced to four years in prison after being convicted of exaggerating claims about his company’s production of zero-emission 18-wheel trucks, leading to sizeable losses for investors."
Anyone who believes an electric HGV is a runner deserves to lose their money. Milton did the world a service.
On electric vehicles - why no battery powered trains on Oxenholme / Ambleside line. Can't think of anywhere better
On main point have we now got rid of all our out of date munitions?
Is the line flat enough? Happy memories of trips to Near Sawrey via that line. We met (around 1975) someone who knew Beatrix Potter in her old age - said she dressed like a tramp though she owned a Rolls.
It's hard to tell what Trump is really aiming for. It's reasonable to assume that some of his more provocative statements are carefully calculated to elicit a particular response, some are intended to distract attention away from his real objectives, and some are spontaneous reactions without any filters.
This leaves so much room for different interpretations of everything he says that Trumpology is becoming the new Kremlinology.
Right now, his approach to Ukraine has a distinctly Henry Kissinger vibe - ruthless pursuit of national interest, cynical bargains, and no regard for the human cost.
But Trump is a deal-maker and no deal will last very long unless both the Ukrainian and Russian governments are willing to accept it, however grudgingly. He is also an "America First" politician, and he always wants to win.
So, my best guess is that he intends to play hardball with both sides until they accept that they have to make peace on his terms.
As for the Kursk salient, Putin can't mention it without implicitly admitting that it's a bargaining chip for Ukraine. If he treats it as an important objective, he immediately raises the price that Russia will have to pay to get it back. He would also remind everybody that his government was unable to prevent an invasion of Russian territory.
> Anyone who believes an electric HGV is a runner deserves to lose their money
Have you seen the 2 minute sped-up video of the Tesla Semi (articulated lorry for us Brits) driving 500 miles, fully loaded, on a single charge?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtgaYEh-qSk
I have seen reports that on some hilly terrain range can drop to ~350 miles, but it's real and been trialled by many US companies including PepsiCo and DHL.
It seems Tesla plans mass US production to start at the end of this year, ramping up to volume in 2026, but that may turn out to be a Tesla-time prediction. Still, looks very real and coming this way before too long to me:
https://www.teslarati.com/first-tesla-semi-builds-still-expected-2025/
AndrewZ - on Kursk, yes, you are absolutely right, it's why it got omitted from the original list in the post.
we've made the point here before that in negotiations, Putin must treat it as a gnat-bite. "Kursk? Oh, we're going to have that for breakfast whenever we want. Now, back to Odessa ..."
EXCEPT ... there's a very large natural gas facility there, which Ukraine has captured
Is Zelensky missing a trick? He could call Trump's bluff on holding an election. Subject to Russia agreeing to cease all aggression against Ukraine until a month after the formation of a new government.
I take it that the "very large natural gas facility" in the Kursk salient is the Sudzha gas hub. Looking at, an admittedly rather old, pipeline map that is on the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline fed from both West Siberia and Kazakhstan into Ukraine. Why is that of particular strategic advantage to Ukraine, as they control that pipeline anyway a few tens of miles further west in Ukraine itself?
decnine - now that's the right kind of tactical thinking
Mr W - the Russians don't have non-return valves on their oil & gas facilities. I could envisage a clever engineer and a bit of Semtex wreaking disproportionate havoc.
That said, (a) the Russians may have anticipated this & blocked off the system upstream; and (b) repairs to pipeline systems can be surprisingly quick to effect - when you aren't stricken with sanctions on all the key parts (which they definitely are, right now - they are having the Devil's job mending their bombed refineries)
"they are having the Devil's job mending their bombed refineries"
And yet when the US (in the opening Saudi chat) suggested a mutual halt to strikes on energy, the Russians said no.
Thanks for the reply ND. OT, are you considering doing an article on the current discussion/consultation about changing to an electricity zonal pricing market (regional pricing) in the UK? I'm very interested in the idea, but cannot work out if it is a good idea or not. I am impressed that it might cause big industrial/computer users to setup shop in the regions with cheaper leccy, which might spur extra inward investment. I guess it would not affect large leccy generators on existing CfD contracts, like new nuclear (HPC) and most wind, as they have already agreed prices - so it would only affect future generation investment decisions?
Windermere line runs along valley pretty flat single track.
Will do.
As I recall the possibility of battery powered trains on Oxenholme / Windermere line has been discussed on and off for over a decade. The latest serious discussion I can find is 2020 in Modern Railways mag:
The battery train proposal for Windermere would involve the addition of new vehicles containing batteries into five three-car Class 331s, creating four-car sets, with batteries also inserted into the existing centre vehicles. ... The sets fitted with batteries would be used on Manchester to Windermere services, which apart from the Windermere branch itself run entirely under the wires yet are operated by Class 195 diesel units. The branch was originally due to be electrified but this was cancelled in 2017 ... As well as the environmental benefits, introduction of the battery ‘331s’ on Windermere services would free up ‘195s’ for cascade elsewhere on the Northern network."
https://www.modernrailways.com/article/northerns-hydrogen-and-battery-plans
Can't find anything more recent, so looks rather like this proposal died. Sad.
PhD topic: to investigate my suspicion that the sort of people most likely to obsess about the deaths on the Western Front 1914-18 are the same people who want to see the Russia/Ukraine war continue indefinitely.
Be fair. Alan Brooke, Churchill's Chief of Staff, wrote in 1942: "... on the lack of good military commanders: Half our Corps and Divisional Commanders are totally unfit for their appointments, and yet if I was to sack them I could find no better! They lack character, imagination, drive and power of leadership. The reason for this state of affairs is to be found in the losses we sustained in the last war of all our best officers, who should now be our senior commanders."
Brooke was the UK Eisenhower equivalent, but unlike Ike he'd commanded in battle many times. It makes one realise how revolutionary/confiscatory the Attlee regime was, that after the war Brooke, a hero second only to Churchill and maybe Monty, had to sell his home and his priceless bird books, and move into his former gardeners cottage.
Zelensky will have to do the same.
For the same reasons.
It took fifteen years for the UK to get out of the poverty that was caused by fighting WW2. Even with the Marshall Aid and high taxation, low investment.
Indeed, Anon. My father's experience of the Second War was that virtually all the good officers came from civvy street or the territorials. The professionals were duds.
But I repeat: the people who still bang on about it, more than a century later, seem perfectly fine with a re-enactment on the Steppes.
What counts with electric trucks is cost - capital, running and utilisation.
Being generous let a fill-up be the electric equivalent of 500 litres diesel equivalent to 165 litres allowing for the inefficiency of combustion engines and the 'total' efficiency of electric. Which translates to about 1650Kw hours or a 3.2 megawatt charger for a 30 minute charge. The electric companies are not queuing up to provide that sort of capacity.
By comparison an HGV can look to about 2600 kilometers (1625 miles) between fillups. Then consider the real world, snow, delays at customs, crap motorways etc etc. Electric is (was) saleable to corporates who wanted to look green and deliver a few bags of crisps. Light loads - 684Km, heavy loads - 160Km. Hard nosed business persons shipping apples from Poland to London - nah.
Another thing - the redundancy of diplomats. Donald has shown that being digital and a loudmouth cuts out the need for all that diplomatic flummery. Go direct, go on Whatsapp. Amusing that Mandlebum has landed in a lonely appartment with no one to talk to and no one cares what he says or does. Redundancies at the F.O. - if we had any sense.
Off topic entirely, a relative rented a house in an (over) pretty part of Norfolk with a view to retiring there. Found there was no one to talk to, no community at all. The whole place is rented out or Airbnb - socially dead.
For retirement a good idea is to go to a beautiful part of the country where you can buy a house looking south over the sea so that you can live bathed in reflected light.
Naturally you should absorb jim's lesson - it shouldn't be a dormitory resort for London.
One such region is Dumfries and Galloway though it does mean you'd have to thole the devolved government in Edinburgh.
Alternatively retire in site: keep your acquaintances rather than losing them all. (Friends, of course, you can expect to keep wherever you live.)
jim - re Norfolk - same in Pembrokeshire coastal areas - whole villages where only a few lights are on on winter nights.
F 22 February 2025, 14:37 GMT
Updated 1 hour ago
BMW has confirmed it is delaying the reintroduction of electric vehicle production at its Oxford Mini plant.
The vehicle manufacturer said "multiple uncertainties facing the automotive industry" had led to its decision decision to pause work on the £600m upgrade of its plant in Cowley
OT but apparently demos in Bulgaria against proposed introduction of the Euro. I'm very much against it as I have yet to visit a country where there are 100 stotinkis to the lev.
"Comrade, can you spare a stotinki?"
"Can you lend us 20 stotinkis til Friday?"
re anon 7.27 - the wheels are coming off the green agenda... and I see the great council cash shortage is to be "solved" by allowing councils to borrow more... let's kick that can down the road ...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/22/do-you-want-to-buy-a-british-kettle-go-whistle
"According to official figures, factory output accounts for 8.2% of national income, or gross domestic product (GDP), down from about 30% in 1970, indicating the diminishing role manufacturing plays in the UK economy. Except, a recent report by Oxford Economics and Lloyds Bank argued that with all the add-ons and service contracts associated with the sector included, its impact is far greater than the official measure, concluding it was worth £518bn in 2022, or nearly a quarter (23%) of UK GDP. Labour’s long-awaited industrial strategy is expected to appear this summer and is likely to give support to homegrown manufacturing. Tackling high energy prices should be a cornerstone of new policies when, according to government data, a small UK manufacturer pays 25p per kilowatt hour (kWh) compared with 19p in France and Germany. The cost drops to 9p in the champions of renewable energy, Denmark and Finland, and 8p in the US. Chinese firms pay less than 1p per kWh."
Via Deutsche Welle;
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskyy-offers-to-quit-in-return-for-nato-entry/a-71720973
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday he would "immediately" quit as Ukraine's president in exchange for the country gaining NATO membership.
"If there is peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, I am ready. ... I can exchange it for NATO," Zelenskyy told a press conference in Kyiv."
Hilarious response.
For added fun and games : https://www.dw.com/en/why-china-wants-eu-to-be-involved-in-ukraine-peace-talks/a-71700633
Trump & Co want to be isolationist, secure within Fortress America? Then they'll get it, good and hard.
> Which translates to about 1650Kw hours [requiring] a 3.2 megawatt charger for a 30 minute charge.
I agree electric trucks are not up to multi-day trips like Poland to UK, but for a regular one-day depot to depot run, or to customer than return to base depot, use case the numbers appear to stack up just about. For the Tesla Semi at least, which is the only numbers I've looked at.
The Tesla Semi has a claimed 2 kWh/mile usage at full load (37 tonnes total rig in the US), and a battery of about 900 kWh giving a range of around 450 miles. Tesla already have MW chargers using liquid cooled cables, so maybe 1.25 hours to charge now with likely improvements. That seems good enough to allow two driving shifts per day, for a use case that fits return to depot (with charger) at end of shift.
In the US industrial leccy is about 10c/kWh, so about 20c/mile. I'm not really sure about US fuel pricing, but if we assumed 8 miles/US gal costing $3.50 that's about 44c/mile. So saving about $105 per driver shift, not massive but worthwhile.
Of course as you say the capital cost is a huge issue. I think a 1 MW battery is around $500k these days - 8% return on that divide by 350 days is $115, so the financials look very close - really does need two driving shifts per day. Possibly only appeal to companies that want to project an image.
But Tesla are building a factory that will build 50k/year Tesla Semis from 2027 or so, and I'm sure they have much better cost/benefit calculations with anticipated 2027+ costings, so I do think the numbers will stack up then for enough use cases to sell them.
Now do Japan. Yes, that Japan, the one with the number 3 position in the global manufacturing league table (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/manufacturing-by-country) and higher electricity prices than the UK (or pretty much anywhere else you care to mention).
I’m also intrigued as to how the UK, with its high-as-a-kite energy prices, nevertheless still managed manufacturing output only $29bn less than Russia, which frequently gives energy away to favoured companies and how, say, the UK together with France (same population as Russia) has double the manufacturing base.
My intrigue only increases as to why anyone would want the UK to try to end up impoverishing itself deploying by necessity limited resources competing with commodity product producers making, say, kettles, as opposed to, for example, aero engines.
@ Clive
How is all the UK shipbuilding compared to the Japanese and Koreans? They have highly paid workforces and comparable energy prices and ship aren't kettles.
Why would anyone want to enter that sector? It suffers from global overcapacity, is prone as a result to inventory recessions and has little if any potential for innovation (so is vulnerable to commodification). Aerospace, pharmaceuticals and high end electronics are a much better bet. As is defence systems and equipment..
Isn’t Belfast inside the sm?
Doesn’t the advent of lipo technology increase the prospect of ehgvs? Lower cost lower density but vastly increased lifetime batteries? They could put in place periodic overhead gantries for charging. (For the us the periodic dead straight sections of highway that double as runways could be good locations).
Isn’t the bigger issue generating the required electricity?
Clive, where are you getting your figures from?
Spot prices traded on the Japan Electric Power Exchange surged 19.6% for Nov. 19, with the 24-hour day-ahead price soaring to Yen 15.31/kWh from Yen 12.80/kWh for Nov. 18
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/111824-japans-spot-electricity-price-surges-20-as-temperatures-drop
That 12.80 is around 6.8p a kWh. UK spot price 8.762p a kWh, if my maths is right, for 20/12/24 here.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators
One thing I'm seeing more an more of on non-electrified lines is dual mode diesel electric trains like Class 800, made of course in Japan and bolted together in Newton Aycliffe - after all, what do they know about trains in County Durham?
No industrial user would buy spot unless they were happy to go naked (unhedged) or energy costs were negligible in their total cost base.
TEPCO’s current rate card for high voltage take off if just shy of ¥20 per kW/h or you can have a flutter at just under ¥14 per kW/h plus any market price adjustment currently in force (i.e. no cap no collar)
https://www.tepco.co.jp/en/ep/about/newsroom/press/archives/2023/pdf/230927e0202.pdf
As an aside, as it’s been a windy, sunny, mild (-ish) day here, system (spot) prices have often been negative today (various interesting charts at https://enact.lcp.energy/).
Which, for renewables grouches, of which there are many on this site (not, always, without good reason, mind you) is food for thought. I say this not because it is particularly relevant to industrial electricity users and prices (if, like the UK and Japan your marginal cost is determined by imported LNG, you base cost is driven by that so countries such as us and Japan should have pretty much identical wholesale costs).
The fact the UK has a slight but noticeable reduction in costs compared to very similar Japan is down to the renewables benefit. Yes, benefit. Controversial, perhaps, but here I am saying it.
But (there’s always a but) as the TEPCO rate card I linked to earlier shows, “cost” when it comes to electricity has many different flavours. Domestic consumers are stuck on domestic tariffs, but industrial users have a lot broader market to pick from.
Maybe not enter, but we should have never left (like nuclear power). And in what alternate dimension is there no potential for innovation? Most goods are shipped via sea so even small improvements can reap large benefits.
Well, I guess I will just have to wait and see these extant improvements (that are patentable and commercially exploitable) since decades have gone by without their emergence.
Clive, I'm not accusing you of getting muddled here, but it's really important to distinguish between wholesale and delivered energy prices (costs). Not so many industrials who've followed your dictum of not going naked, will benefit from negative (spot) prices - because they've hedged!
Except, of course, maybe in the long term, if (sporadic) negative prices contribute to a drift downwards in the prices of those very hedges you say they'll be buying.
BUT you then need to factor in - who pays for the CfDs being issued to RES. Because in the last round those CfD strike prices were all above average wholesale prices - which for those footing the bill, can only mean one thing ...
ND - is there an idiot's guide anywhere to electric prices and markets? Where to find domestic and factory prices in a range of different countries? Also, we all understand that bulk buyers get a discount, but (for example) does HMG get one? Local authorities?
Or is that the kind of info a consultancy will want money for?
I see our domestic electricity prices are going up AGAIN in April. Four increases a year !!
I remember around the time of Big Bang in London, when four of our team of six left for more money and they gave us all a flat rise, we had four pay rises a year (two on reviews, and two "market level adjustments" so we didn't leave). Happy days.
Yes, that was really the point I was fumbling for. I really loath the muddle-headed and inaccurate sloppiness when this subject is discussed.
There is no single “price for electricity” (i.e. when the consumer is paying, the especially for non-domestic tariffs) and there is no single “cost for electricity” (either when taking about spot, forward, CfD, strike price, including or excluding transmission etc. etc. etc.)
Much mischief can — and is — wrought by those either inadvertently or (more usually) intentionally exploiting the complexities of the sector bandying about “costs” and “prices” in an attempt to make their (slanted and self-serving) arguments.
"Anonymous has left a new comment on the post 'While Trump & Putin deal bilaterally ...':
I see our domestic electricity prices are going up AGAIN in April. Four increases a year !!"
No they aren't. Ed Miliband says they are going down
And we all trust Bacon Boy, don't we?
Ho hum
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/net-zero/ed-miliband-blame-britain-disastrous-smart-meters/
If paywalled
https://archive.ph/P3u9a
Anyone met anyone yet who has admitted to voting for Labour?
Yup. My old man was a Territorial, before the war and until 1962 after the war. Ended up as CO 40/41st RTR in Oldham. We (three boys) would go up with him at weekends sometime, and get a run in Centurions on the tank ranges on the moors above Oldham 😊
It was, if I may be so bold, a colossal miscalculation for the hydrocarbon fanbois to attempt to fight the energy future argument on the basis of price. As we have seen in this post and comments, “price” is much too nebulous term when it comes to electricity. What is the capital outlay? What is the cost of capital? What is the asset’s working life? What is the fuel cost? What are the long-term fuel cost estimates based on? How elastic are your consumer’s pricing and use expectations? On and on and on I could go. You can genuinely pick any number you like (Ed Miliband can. And he does). You’ve lost your potential audience, most of them, by the second paragraph of this guff.
And, to our hapless requestor above seeking — quite understandably — a “where can find a list of ‘prices’?” question, the answer is, you won’t. There’s some enormous IEA papers walking through the complexities of trying to get the basic framing of “price” and “cost” and energy traders can buy monumentally expensive software and platforms which you can drill down into this sort of stuff. But no, there’s no handy two-pager on “what are international prices” (or if there are, they might tell you all sorts of interesting things about historic prices and what the context of those prices were, but will tell you nothing at all about what they’ll be next year, or 5 years or 10 years hence).
It’s all down to ideology. Don’t bother looking for “price” to conclude the argument. And in any case, it’s all futile anyway. 2024 was the election to win, to reorientate UK energy away from renewables and back to hydrocarbons. Whether electricity is 80% or 90% or 100% “decarbonised” (whatever that may mean) by 2030, massive, (best Donald Trump voice here), hu-uuu-ge investment decisions will have already been committed to. There’ll be no turning back in 2039, even if a new government was elected which wanted to. Sorry.
Edit:
*no turning back in 2029
OT but I see A E-P is forecasting a Trump recession. Trouble is he's been forecasting one for the last 30 years - he was right in 2008, but even then the electronic presses were started and we staggered onwards.
How btw are we going to increase defence production (nearly said spending - we can increase that alright) when the manufacturing base is so tiny?
Huh?
Hard to get a list of arms manufacturers by country, but arms exports, a good proxy, has Britain somewhere between forth and seventh in the world https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_industry
Do you ever google your little factoids before posting them ?
Indeed Clive, investment decisions are being made. Shell and BP have cut their green virtue signalling wokery and are going to "Drill baby, drill". Offshore wind farms can't get any interest without more subsidies. Renewables are clearly the future.
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