The 'first draft of history' on this one is quite difficult to essay: the number of variables in play has been quite remarkable, and continues in the same manner. 4-D chess? Try 5 or 6. The consequences for Labour, in particular, are complex and highly contingent on many things. (Could have been even more amusing if Your Party had been at the races - and in future it might just be.)
But we'll all have some early thoughts. Here are a couple of mine:
- WTF was Reform doing, fielding a prize prat like Goodwin? Just about the worst candidate imaginable for fighting a working-class / Muslim seat. And Farage a man with his finger on the pulse? I have heard only two 'excuses': (1) this was always a big stretch for Reform - something like no. 440 on their list of potential targets, IIRC; (2) "Farage wanted to slap down a potential leadership rival" (yes, I've seen that surmised on the airwaves - but possibly a hypothesis born of the same bewilderment as my own).
- Obviously this is a Big Test for them / him, but right now I'd say Team Starmer is determined to tough it out. (No guarantee of success, of course.)
- Polanski will now be striving to get his lovable piss-artist act together properly - which may in turn piss off some of his "support" as he seeks to ditch the "our policy is dictated by Conference and the leadership is only allowed to parrot it" doctrine of the Greens: which can't possibly survive if he's to capitalise on this.
ND
5 comments:
I've reluctantly arrived at the conclusion that Matt Goodwin isn't a complete careerist driven solely by self interest but may actually have undergone a Damascene conversion. From the BBC and Guardian's favourite psephologist of the right to an actual candidate of the right. Still not a good pick for the constituency though.
A total careerist would have stayed as professor at Kent while keeping his GB news job.
Labour needs to rethink that 'Diversity makes us Stronger' slogan.
Labour didn't pick a good candidate either, and the Greens have stolen the Lib Dems by-election playbook and tailored it accordingly.
It shows that Starmer - and McSweeney - can't walk and chew at the same time, they either tack left or right, rather than select which way to lean on a per-issue basis. They tackle Reform, the Greens bite their left flank, and now they'll tackle the Greens leaving their right flank open for a Faraging.
Starmer still pretty safe, no one wants to be holding the bag in May, and Big Ange still has to hold fire due to the taxman.
We'll hear some nasally whining about listening and learning, maybe Reeves sacrificed on the altar of student debt, in an attempt to get them back onside, in yet another u-turn. Chancellor Ed front and centre by middle of March?
Reform still having issues trying to be an actual political party, Farage is great at being the chummy firebrand. but they're still struggling to find someone who can comfortably come across as a leader who Farage is willing to share the limelight with. Attempts to professionalise has already cost them some support, and the Greens are going to suffer the same issues.
Good analysis, Caeser too. Sooner or later, however true the other factors are, demographics are the elephant in the room.
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