New Year Prediction Game 2023

 So last year the predictions were somewhat poor as we nearly all over-egged Boris. Under estimated Putin and thought covid was awful!

Everyone except Caesar Hemera - blimey he nailed it. Well done that man! 

This year let’s make it simple for us all? 5 yea or nea- 

Will the war in Ukraine end?

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?

Bonus answer for tiebreak has to be a sport related prediction. Mine is for Emma Radacanu to win Wimbledon. 

2021 Predictions - maybe the hardest one in 14 years

We started this little tradition 14 years ago now, gulp, how time flies. 

As I said last week, back in 2006-9 myself and the readership often got 4/5 or better for predictions, it continued at a good rate until the last couple of years when the winner, like last year, often only got 1/5. The world has become more unpredictable or perhaps the authors and readers more stupid....

But now we have 2021, with a global pandemic and runaway stock market fuelled by frankly mental levels of money printing - all the whilst having Russia and China waiting in the wings and a geriatric in charge of America. 

So, good luck, we will need it for both the game and as the kids say, IRL. 

Here goes

1) FTSE close on 31/12/21

2) Share price of Tesla on 31/12/21 (this stock, the focus of the irrational market, will be the bell-weather for a market crash too this year...or not...)

3) When will the Tier system end in the UK (assumes this year...optimism central I am)

4) Who will be US President at the end of the Year

5) What price will Bitcoin be in US Dollars?

A nice rounded global focus there, bit more on the markets this year. As always there are bonus points (to a maximum of one) for guessing some major geo-political event too in your response. 

Good luck all...

China Oil inquriy - Situation Normal

The Capitalists have been at work, hence the slight interupption in service....

A quick update to the China Oil stories of last week. Apparently, apart from a few arrests and minor indiscretions all is well now - there is even an official looking press release on Reuters.

So perhaps there was nothing to it after all....

Anyway now for a fun game - how much money was alleged to me to be missing do you think?

A) $60 million
B) $600 million
C) $6 billion
D) $60 billion
E) $600 billion

(As a pointer, the physical crude trade alone in China is around $1 billion per day, double that or more when you add in refined products, then there are derivatives etc that all the majors play with)

Answers in the comments.

Am I a nannying lefty after all?

I read today that the OFT is looking into the way in which in-game payments can be made on various game apps.

Now given I have 3 young children who are nearly as obsessed as I am about playing silly games on tablets, this is something I do worry about. Can the kids accidentally run up a bill of a few hundred pounds without us adults noticing?

Normally of course the rule would be Caveat Emptor (albeit the games are almost always offered free now). However, with minors involved it is different, my little boys have only a vague concept of money (learned from their mother, they simply ask for unlimited amounts of money and then spend it as fast as they can...).

So where is the line as minors cannot be treated as a normal case due to their lack of ability to make commercial decisions. So on this one I am going to come down on the side of making strict rules and access to purchases (such as the need for a password every time), mandatory.

So in the end, have I ended up as a hand-wringing socialist? Vote on the left