At last, the 2025 Predictions Compo!

OK, here we go for 2025.  In keeping with tradition, answers on a postcard BTL, if you please.

*   *   *   *   *

1.  Name of first sitting MP defecting to Reform

2.  Date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, as defined below.  One bonus point for each correctly-named departure or clear-cut demotion.  Two bonus points for any complete change precisely identified (named outgoer and named replacement)

3.  Anything you care to predict about the German Fed elections

4.  Composition of German government coalition by year-end (if none finalised by then, say 'none')

5.  Dollar / rouble exchange rate on Christmas Eve

6.  Oh, all right then: FTSE100 on Christmas Eve

(For masochists)  Bonus wildcard essay question : at headline level, what will be the state of play in Ukraine at year-end?

Go for it!

ND

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"Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death.  Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above.

2024 Predictions Compo: RESULT

Tradition has it that around now we dust off the crystal balls and gaze into the year ahead.  So: while you're up in the loft looking for your predicting paraphernalia for 2025, let's look at how 2024 worked out against everyone's forecasting.

The questions from last year: 

1. UK GE: date (month); 
2. ... and number of Labour MPs after the GE 
3. US Presidency: who wins? 
4. Size of V. Putin's share of the Russian vote (as announced) 
5. By how much, and in what direction, will the FTSE100 change between midnight UK GE polling day and the end of 2024? 
6. Length of Sam B-F's gaol term upon sentencing (note: zero is a number). Extra point for size of the fine in USD 
7. Where will Man Utd rank in the Prem at the end of the '23-4 season, and who will be manager?

Answers:  

1. 4 July.  We all plumped for the autumn ... save for Mr Cowshed who said "early July"!  Off to a flying start.
2. 411.  What a fiasco.  Closest here was Caesar H, at 400.
3. Mostly Trumps here: two Bidens and, errrr, a "Haley"
4. 88.48%.  Another win for Cowshed, with 92%: see footnote on a curiosity.
5. As of 10am, it's plus 0.2%. Barring some amazing action this afternoon,  SubOptimal easily wins this one with +0.22%
6. 25 years / "repay $11bn".  Not sure that's strictly a fine.  Anyhow, several people went with either 20 or 30 years; nobody got close on the $$$.  An entertaining 99 years sentence from the retributive Caesar (thumbs down from him, then); and a lenient 3 from Lilith.
7. 8th / ten Hag.  The best all-round performance on this one: the majority saw tH surviving - well, at least that long - and clustered tightly around 8th.  An entertaining suggestion of Wayne Rooney from BQ.

Good sport!  But there has to be a winner, and the judges say ... Anomalous Cowshed!  With hon mensh to SubOptimal (who [s]he? - please do come again) and Caesar H.  

Up soon: 2025. 

ND

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Note on Putin's vote:  the initial announcement was 87.3%, on which I had been tipped off a few days earlier & duly reported here.  However, subsequently it seems to have been revised upwards (a few late votes, perhaps - well, it's always hard to vote with a severely twisted arm.  And 87% was pretty demeaning).  A pity, because then I'd have won in this category - my prediction was 83%.  But there's no accounting for rigged votes.

2024 Predictions Compo: Bankman-Fried Update

So we have an outcome on yet another of our 2024 predictions compo items: SB-F's sentence & fine.  The jail term is clear enough, the fine less so: he must "forfeit $11bn in assets".  Is that a fine?  Anyhow, it's financial - and a much bigger number than almost any of us guessed.  In fairness, we've still the appeal to be heard so let's wait up.

There seems also to be belated news on the UK's recessionary status in 4Q23, which might impact on the results of last year's compo.  Must look into that.

Some of you have been kind enough to note that my early intelligence on Putin's share of the vote turned out to be spot-on.  Yup, when the fix went in there were some communicative folks in the know who just couldn't contain themselves.  Russia is like that.

ND

UPDATE / PS:

SB-F features in this very illuminating article on soi-dissant 'Effective Altruism' -

https://www.wired.com/story/deaths-of-effective-altruism/

2024 Predictions Compo: Putin Election Update

 One of the questions in this year's Predictions Compo is:

• Size of V. Putin's share of the Russian vote (as announced)

I have news from my quite-good-but-not-wholly-reliable Russian sources that the answer will be not unadjacent to 87%.

Just saying.

ND

Competition: Predictions for 2024

So here we are, crystal balls at the ready, testing our predictive powers on the year ahead.  What will 2024 bring?  Some of the big unknowns for this year are rather obvious "known unknowns", of course, but please address yourselves nonetheless to the following questions:

• UK GE:  date (month);  and number of Labour MPs after the GE 
• US Presidency: who wins?
• Size of V. Putin's share of the Russian vote (as announced)
• By how much, and in what direction, will the FTSE100 change between midnight UK GE polling day and the end of 2024?
• Length of Sam B-F's gaol term upon sentencing (note: zero is a number).  Extra point for size of the fine in USD
• Where will Man Utd rank in the Prem at the end of the '23-4 season, and who will be manager?

Go for it!

ND

New Year Prediction Game 2023

 So last year the predictions were somewhat poor as we nearly all over-egged Boris. Under estimated Putin and thought covid was awful!

Everyone except Caesar Hemera - blimey he nailed it. Well done that man! 

This year let’s make it simple for us all? 5 yea or nea- 

Will the war in Ukraine end?

Will Oil average over $100 a barrel?

Will Elon Musk’s fabled moon trip happen?

Will Sam Bankman-Fried get Jail time?

Will the UK be in recession still in Q4 2024?

Bonus answer for tiebreak has to be a sport related prediction. Mine is for Emma Radacanu to win Wimbledon. 

Predictions game 2022

 So for this year, more free form for the predictions game.

The four topics for consideration are UK Politics, Global Politics, Macro Economics and Covid.

Make a prediction for the development of each of these, plus one bonus as a tie breaker.

Get started in the comments!

For me, in UK politics Boris will survive the year somehow, in global politics Russia will not invade Ukraine directly but engineer a civil war of some sort and perhaps then take a police action. In macro economics inflation will fade in some products as goods and trade recover, but remain high as energy costs drive it like the oil crisis of the 1970’s. Covid will be with us, Omicron signalling the end for a nice spring and summer but the autumn will see a new variant. As my bonus, Northern Ireland will cause huge Brexit issues and a desperate Boris will invoke Article 16 as a way to try to drag both the EU and the US into a new round of negotiations. 

How did 2021 Predictions go and our annual winner

The questions were; the price of  Tesla, the price of Bitcoin, would Biden still be President, when will the Tier system use end and the FTSE price.

Quite finance focused but let's see what the real-world results are...

FTSE: ending at around 7400 - up from 6500 at the end of last year, so a decent recovery back to levels of, err, 20 years ago. 

Tesla  - up from 700 to 1090 - wow. a mere 50% gain. 

Biden is still President. 

The Tier system ended in June.

Bitcoin has gone from $30,000 odd to $50,000 odd. 

So if we had all bet our money quite simply we should have made a bundle. Sadly, I was contrarian and as usual missed all of this!

THE WINNER IS:

Electro Kev:

FTSE 7500 (just following the crowd here, really)

TESLA £733.25 (because that's $1000 at present exchange rates and TESLA is technically diverse and trades on myth and legend status.)

Tiers end - 2022, Spring. (They're using the Spanish Flu handbook.)

President USA - Harris (a few senior moments will see to that. He should avoid wearing white trousers in public)

Bitcoin - £32,000 (I just looked at the trajectory on a graph and I think major investors will hold out - also drug dealers are the only people travelling on public transport and are making a killing in this crisis... the stench of cannabis is everywhere.)

A very good effort there from Kev. Most entries were very out on Bitcoin - Kev nailed it. He also nailed Tesla and was only two percent out on the FTSE. 

This must be the best ever performance in the 15 years of the competition!

2021 Predictions - maybe the hardest one in 14 years

We started this little tradition 14 years ago now, gulp, how time flies. 

As I said last week, back in 2006-9 myself and the readership often got 4/5 or better for predictions, it continued at a good rate until the last couple of years when the winner, like last year, often only got 1/5. The world has become more unpredictable or perhaps the authors and readers more stupid....

But now we have 2021, with a global pandemic and runaway stock market fuelled by frankly mental levels of money printing - all the whilst having Russia and China waiting in the wings and a geriatric in charge of America. 

So, good luck, we will need it for both the game and as the kids say, IRL. 

Here goes

1) FTSE close on 31/12/21

2) Share price of Tesla on 31/12/21 (this stock, the focus of the irrational market, will be the bell-weather for a market crash too this year...or not...)

3) When will the Tier system end in the UK (assumes this year...optimism central I am)

4) Who will be US President at the end of the Year

5) What price will Bitcoin be in US Dollars?

A nice rounded global focus there, bit more on the markets this year. As always there are bonus points (to a maximum of one) for guessing some major geo-political event too in your response. 

Good luck all...

2020 - Prediction results

 So here are what our post on predictions at the end of 2019 said:

"For the first time in 13 years of this competition I have reviewed the answers and no one was even close. My cat could have done better.

I guess this anecdotally suggests that 2019 was the most crazy year yet - even weirder than the 2010 and 2009 years of the financial crash.

Only gridbot predicted an election but it produced a hard brexit and a hung parliament. Nick Drew did well to suggest there would be a centrist party but it did not even survive the year out to qualify for the final.

My own predictions of May to survive and the remainders to win was fortunately 100% wrong.

Maybe 2020 will see the beginning of a return to normality and some more predictable events unfolding. Or perhaps the zeitgeist of the end of the decade will continue with unknown terrors to come."

Uncanny, perhaps, but the later efforts at prediction for 2020 were also some way off the rather over-interesting events that took place this year. Suffice to say no one was close on the FTSE prediction, nobody cares about tax rates or energy usage levels, the pandemic having seen of both quite easily. 

Our dearly departed friend, Raedwald, at least predicted that Keir Starmer would become leader. Anonymous predicted I would not improve my use of spell check, but thanks to Google chrome that  was found untrue. 

So a win for Raedwald posthumously which feels fitting. 

I will be thinking hard for relevant questions for 2020, this year proving a little more challenging than normal. I think after Brexit and Covid, we deserve a more normal year next year, but perhaps that is itself wishful thinking!

2019 prediction result

For the first time in 13 years of this competition I have reviewed the answers and no one was even close. My cat could have done better.

I guess this anecdotally suggests that 2019 was the most crazy year yet - even weirder than the 2010 and 2009 years of the financial crash.

Only gridbot predicted an election but it produced a hard brexit and a hung parliament. Nick Drew did well to suggest there would be a centrist party but it did not even survive the year out to qualify for the final.

My own predictions of May to survive and the remainders to win was fortunately 100% wrong.

Maybe 2020 will see the beginning of a return to normality and some more predictable events unfolding. Or perhaps the zeitgeist of the end of the decade will continue with unknown terrors to some.

A new prediction competition will be coming up next...

Happy New Year one and all!

Happy New Year - Predictions needed

No one has ever predicted this have they?

The Wisdom of the crowds is strong in the last 12 years of this game between the blog editors and the commentators we have predicted an awful lot right, including the unthinkable such as the Global Financial Crash and France winning the World Cup.

2019 is going to be a corker though, what with the world properly hooked on psychodrama currently. So for our LUCKY 13th annual competition we are going with 5 questions for you to prognosticate upon:

1. Brexit - What happens now? Hard, May's Deal or Remain?

2. Government - Does May Survive in power? Does Corbyn?

3. Energy - Oil price - Up or down from the $55 it is today?

4. Markets - FTSE - Winning or Losing year, bonus point for getting within 200 points of the finish on 31st December 2019.

5. Bonus Round - Your THREE other predictions for 2019, Trump impeached, an immigration disaster in Europe, Italy to leave the Euro, Putin to start a new distraction war, a massive cyber attack, M&S to close...who knows, you decide.

A year of crowing to the winners, shredded betting strips for the losers. Good luck all.

What does 2018 hold in store for us all?

So, a little belatedly for no real good reason, here are some of the major likely themes of 2018 - time to decide how it will pan out...




1. Brexit - will the current deal stick or will we move back to a no-deal scenario?


2. Remain - will the continual campaign to have a re-vote finally work, via the House of Lords, Judiciary or some other contrived nonsense?


3. Election - A 2017 election was a shock, but with the Tories in disarray is it out of the question to consider there could well be a 2018 election?


4. Trump - Again, for many reasons, will he see out the year at President of the USA


5. North Korea, could 2018 be the year, with the Winter Olympics in Seoul and sanction biting, the year things turn really nasty?


6. It's World Cup year, with Russia in charge could they win it all themselves or will Germany finally win in Moscow?


7. Economy - very goldilocks 2017, will 2018 prove to be a continuation?

2017 Predictions Review

1. Will trump start a hot war?    NO
2. Islamic state defeated and Raqqa to fall?   YES
3. Article 50 passed and UK set for Brexit?   YES
4. Le Pen elected in France?   NO
5. FTSE to end 2017 over 7100?  YES


With over 30 entries last year there was an Anonymous winner, so can’t count that. Lucilky contributor Bill Quango got them all right.

Trump looks less warlike and more useless with every passing day.

Islamic state is in ruins and hopefully a fading force, but time will tell.

Brexit turned out to mean Brexit after all.

France went wimpy with Macron.

The FTSE is doing just fine, as expected by all who don’t drink the remain kool aid.