Nicola Sturgeon runs into reality

I really hope Sturgeon lives long to regret her ridiculous foray into woke social engineering on the trans self-ID nonsense.  Who knows, it might have contributed to whatever was the final straw for her.

It's crazy enough that it deserves to be a final-straw kind of thing.  Even with fancy verbal footwork ("this individual is a rapist" etc etc), reality is always there to stub the toes of those who take an idle kick at it.  Facts are facts: and despite no end of purposeful Newspeak formulations, enforced silences, cancellings and shibboleths, they ain't going away.  

Was it ever going to stick in a place like Glasgow?  JK Rowling vs N Sturgeon: an interesting match-up - and 1-0 to the former.  There's an easy win now for Sturgeon's successor - if they've got their wits about them.

ND

Weekend reading: informative essay on Sturgeon's SNP

 Further to our brief Scottish foray after the Supreme Court ruling ... here. Extracts: 

Where [Salmond] imposed his chaotic ego on issues foreign and domestic, [Sturgeon] had more strategic nous, crystallizing the party’s Europhile credentials in the wake of Brexit and consolidating its standing among Scotland’s middle-class Remainer majority ... Sturgeon engineered the destruction of Scottish Labour, lifting support for independence to record-breaking highs. Recently, however ... the semi-biblical belief in Sturgeon’s power has started to fade. [She] saw the 2016 Brexit referendum as an opportunity to de-risk, or de-radicalize, Scottish nationalism. From then on, the SNP moved to the centre in pursuit of liberal Remainers; the Yes campaign began to splinter and dissipate (thanks in part to a controversy over trans rights); and the prospect of a second independence vote receded.

... she will leave behind a threadbare political legacy ... pledges to scrap Council Tax and abolish student loan debt were ditched. In their place came a botched green industrial strategy, record drugs deaths and, potentially ... tens of thousands of public sector job cuts. In 2015, Sturgeon ostentatiously invited the Scottish media to ‘judge’ her on her record of eliminating the class attainment gap in Scottish schools. Nearly a decade later, that gap remains as vast as ever. 

... In 2018, the SNP appeared to concede that the era of petro-nationalism was over was by removing North Sea revenues from its fiscal projections for an independent state. But in her speech to the SNP’s annual conference on 10 October, Sturgeon abruptly repositioned oil at the centre of her vision for Scottish self-government. Tax receipts from remaining North Sea fields would be paid into an investment fund, she said, which would help kickstart Scotland’s economy during the early years of independence. The announcement eradicated what was left of Sturgeon’s meagre environmental credibility and reflected a ‘business-as-usual’ vision for independence.      

ND

Woe to the SNP: Sturgeon Wilts, Orchid Dies!

Yes, it's been an unhappy turn of events for Nicola Sturgeon.  Remember those happy evenings spent curled up on the sofa, flashing her knees and writing to Teresa May in big loopy handwriting?  Well, no more pen-pals.

We can tell she's a Bad Person, because she's let the orchid die!

ND

Waiting For Sturgeon's Letter. The Suspense!

As Continental Europe hyperventilates over whether May's Letter contains veiled threats (hint: yes, it does - and see part (2) here), we all wait for Nicola Sturgeon to complete her homework in her best loopy joined-up girl-writing.  As luck would have it, a photographer just happened to be in her lounge.  And she was wearing her Interview Suit!

This letter had better be worth it.

ND

Oh Lord...yet another referendum!

Could it be true?


So far thanks to Brexit the UK has done really rather well, exports have grown, jobs increased, GDP grown, new friendship found with the US President, the Labour party destroyed and Cameron and Osborne de-throned in the nick of time.


Against this are some downside possibilities in the future, but the full furore of Remain side in the campaign has looked very poor.


However today, Nicola Sturgeon has, as entirely expected, pressed the button on a new independence referendum for Scotland to be held in 2018 or 2019. It will be hard for a Westminster government to refuse this given the mandate from the Scottish Parliament that will come down.


So, we really could end up getting rid of Scotland. Here was me thinking that hope had gone after 2014, but no, the fruit of Brexit is ripe and plentiful. The Scots can vote themselves independence in the EU and enjoy the bounteous Euro, unlimited Romanian immigration and other splendid and wonderful things that the EU brings to its member.


The Scots will vote to leave the UK just as their economy topples down from its petro-based fuel to something all the less interesting. It may even do us a favour as Banks could potentially passport into the Euro area via their already existing Scottish branches, without the need to go to Luxembourg (though they will go for the tax-free status in all likelihood).


The only downside is that these referendums are very consuming of media time and popular angst. First Minister Sturgeon has also not noticed that the side expected to win has not had much luck of late....

"Greater Scrutiny"? Desperate Stuff from Miliband

Well it's not going to be business as usual for a couple of weeks, is it ?  Party Conference season will see to that, unless ISIL or Putin really pull a stunt.

Choker

I understand the case for pessimism but am still very upbeat about the opportunity presented to Dave.  When we watch Miliband on prime politico-TV spluttering that he's not against English MPs being given greater scrutiny of legislation affecting England, we know he is completely disoriented.

Greater scrutiny ?   Everybody with a perspective on UK local government immediately recoils from the word.  It was introduced when the old local council 'committee system' was overthrown by the 'cabinet system'.  For those who don't know, prior to being allowed 'cabinet' government, the bulk of local authorities' decisions not delegated to council officers were taken by all-party committees, so that back-bench councillors - who would sit on several such committees - had a fair crack at genuine involvement.  This system wasn't without its flaws; but back-bench involvement was much diminished when it was replaced by 'cabinet', where all decisions are taken by a majority-party clique (and a well-paid clique at that).  The sop thrown to back-benchers was 'scrutiny' - powerless question-time sessions in which cabinet members have to explain themselves.  (The same thing happens in those few areas with executive mayors, when it is the Mayoral coterie that offers itself up for interrogation.)

The consequence of this is that non-cabinet councillors, which includes most of even the ruling party's number, get no closer to decision-making than asking the odd question of an actual decision-maker once a quarter.  They secretly hate it, even though (like parliamentary select committees) they try to puff themselves up and make it sound important - Keith Vaz in Toytown.

Now of course Westminster backbenchers already have this system: the Standing Committees that (despite the name) are convened specifically to go through each piece of draft legislation, line by line.  They are allowed to propose amendments, too, if they dare: but are ruthlessly whipped and have barely any meaningful autonomous impact, mostly serving to give the government a bit of breathing-space to introduce its own amendments (via compliant back-benchers) as the inevitable nonsenses in a hastily-drafted Bill become apparent.  

So for Mili to offer Greater Scrutiny as his solution to the WLQ is a mighty insult to all concerned, and one that any politico feels all too keenly.  Is that the best you've got ?   A really tangible expression of pure political panic, of existential angst.  In the season of last-before-election Party Conferences, he needs above all to be declaring glorious, dividing-line policies.  And what's he got ?  A 'constitutional convention'; the minimum wage; a promise his wife will be out on the campaign trail; and scrutiny.

Joker

Now we at C@W have a distinctly limited regard for the strategy skills of George 'Genius' Osborne; but it occurs to me that these are the situations perfectly suited to his student-politics talents.  In parallel with several months of serious decision-making (and I still fondly hope someone is up to this challenge ...)  there is the childlishly enjoyable task of making Miliband wet himself in public.  It ought to be posssible to paint him into a very damp and uncomfortable corner for the remaining duration of the Parliament, and the old Camerosborne double act should be capable of that.

And maybe - just maybe - atone for their grotesque mis-step on Boundary Changes.  Because this is an existential crisis for the Tories, too.

ND 

Scots win Independence, delayed by one year to 2017

If Cameron now wins the election narrowly in 2015, as is possible, there will be an EU Referendum in 2017. England will vote for withdrawal and Scotland will not. Scotland will then demand to be 'free' within the EU (oh, the irony) and the devolved Parliament will demand it.

Chances of happening, not that low really, 8-1 perhaps?

Opportunity Knocks

The aftermath of the referendum is one of those rare moments on the battlefield when a genuine opportunity presents itself for a decisive, pivotal move.  It falls to Cameron.

And he even looks up for it.  Is there someone, anyone in the whole of the Tory Party (or on its payroll) with the strategic nous to follow through ?

A man can hope ...

ND

Uninstalling Scotland

Free up a bit of disk space: a programme we no longer need, cluttering up the memory?

Or something worth keeping, just because ..?

The Scottish Currency Union delusion

With the momentum strongly with the Yes campaign, Scotland could be hurtling towards independence. Certainly the passions North of the Border have been aroused and the vote may well get close to 80% turnout. On that basis it would seem more likely that Yes might just squeak a win.

In trying to defend the status quo, the political party leaders at Westminster have been determined to say that under no circumstances will there be a full currency Union. It has been a great tool for the campaign, as it focus' on the heads and not the hearts. The Heart felt vote will always be for an Independent nation, as its is more aspirational than more of the same.

However, why, as a person living in Southern England, do we care if there is a Currency Union. Scotland demands a seat at the Bank of England as its price. Fine, let is have one - after all the MPC is a vote of 12, Scotland having one is about right in terms of economic contribution. Scotland will not dictate the votes on interest rates.

Scotland too would have to sign up to strictures around public spending, Tory ones in times of a Tory Government and Labour ones in times of a Labour Government. That means they would have limited impact on their macro spending.

So in effect, nothing would really change economically for the Scots or have any real impact on the UK as it remained.

Currency Union does not really hold any big bad macro effects, except if Scotland went off the rails and tried to print its own money etc - something that even Greece could not do. Plus over time, the Scots would issue their own debt and so would have the markets act directly to help persuade a Scots Government of the nature of debt and spending.

As such, I think all the Westminster MP's are lying and in the end if the vote is Yes then the likelihood is there will be a Currency Union - not having one is unnecessarily spiteful and also probably against the terms of the treaty signed when the referendum was first agreed to.

Without a Currency Union the Scots economy faces a very uncertain and bleak future, that much is true.

SNP trash the Treasury

It's come to a pretty pass when the Treasury is releasing statistics to assist the referendum debate and they are trashed by their own author within a few minutes.

But it did happen today, and I feel conspiracy at work here. At last the Government is coming to terms with the Yes vote improving and deciding that it likes what it sees - which would be the end of Labour as a Government in England, especially with a surging UKIP to challenge them.

With this in mind, the effort to persuade Scottish voters to stay in the Union is half-hearted. I would rather hope this was the case in any event, rather than believe the Treasury is utterly incompetent.

Most of their reservoir is depleted now

So who said this and about what? Well it was  Abdalla Salem El-Badri the Head of OPEC discussing the UK's oil reserves in October of last year.

On a quick facts basis here are some rather key ones too:

- UK production is expected to drop to 800,000 barrels a day this year, down from a production peak of 2.92 million in 1999. That is, umm, a 75% drop in production in just 15 years.

- With huge investment needed into getting North Sea production back on-line, it is unlikely this will go over one million barrels per day ever again.

- The decline is North Sea production is the fastest of any large system in the World over the past decade.

- The UK became a net importer of oil again in 2007.

- Newer North Sea companies, such as Xcite Energy (tipped here many a moon ago, but struggling still) are really struggling to find finance. This is because their cost of to pump the oil is at $80 barrels plus and the oil is much heavier than Brent - so less valuable. Taking this into account is huge as it means the margin available to tax is far slimmer. Even if these companies are successful and we have more successful drilling in the likes of the Bressay field and others, the tax revenues potential is far less than was the case with the Forties field.

So basically, Salmond and Cameron can discuss all they like in Aberdeen about UK offshore oil reserves, but this is yesterday's story in many ways. The future will be Fracked gas onshore in the UK - sadly for Scotland much of this is in England.

Scots win in Govan at English expense

One of the good side effects if your a Scottish worker or politician is that having a referendum on independence next year means you have lots of political leverage now. BAE, a private company but with the closest links to the Government of any private company, will no doubt have an ear out for what Downing Street and the mandarins would want.

In this case it won't be too hard to guess, with a downgrade in the need of naval building capability obviously needed after the aircraft carriers are built, there have to be some job losses. The choice is between the shipyards of the Clyde or Liberal Democrat Portsmouth. I pity the people of Portsmouth who deserve better than to be shafted to prevent Alex Salmond smiling, but that is what will happen.

One of the problems of the referendum is that anything done now to upset the Scots can be played as 'forcing' independence. In fact anything at all, a Tory or Labour win in the Eu elections, closures of shipyards, infrastructure projects funded or not funded.

It's called in other way being held to ransom; like the bad marriage where one party constantly misbehaves and then threatens to leave all the time anyway. As we would advise our friends, the only sensible thing to do is tell the mis-behaving party to get knotted and get one with the bitter divorce.

Grangemouth Petrochemicals to close

 

Well, that went well for McCluskey and his loony Unite friends at Grangemouth. The company, Ineos, losing £10 million a month, has decided to close the petrochemical part of the site as it can't make any profits on the products without changes to the organisation of the company. So that's 880 jobs then. In addition, it is hard to see the refniery staying open too much longer when the high-value added piece of hte jigsaw is next door and has closed down.

As noted in the comments to the previous post, Unite told their memebers and the world that their members would be better off on the dole than working. Funny that, the average salary in Grangemouth according to Adzuna is £35,000 a year, 12% above average - I wonder if all those well paid oil and gas jobs help boost that figure?

Even better the Scottish Government are looking for a buyer of a company they don't own. The treu face of SNP Marxism and Unite infiltration is never far below the surface.

There is a huge amount of nonsense written about race to the bottom; but this is a potentially competitive site, with a company willing to invest, being closed down by Unions and workers who don't fancy it. End of.

The sooner Scotland votes for indepdendence the better; in deed more so now as we will be able to sell them products from Southern refineries and pertochemical plants. The whole sotry also helps to frame the SNP claim's to endless funds from the North Sea oil. Grangemouth is having to look further afield for quality oils from which to extract gas as the North Sea declines and this is a big factor in its increasing cost base.

Reality seems far from intruding into this sad episode though.

NEISR...shhh

What is it with these people. There we are pootling along, all happy in the knowledge that the people of Scotland are merrily talking themselves into Independence. Braveheart, Bannockburn and all the other other rubbish being spouted by the SNP...along with some more salient points about the poor quality of leader on offer from Westminster.

Then NEISR interrupts with yet another credulous doom and gloom report on how Scotland will face years of austerity and hard times if it leaves the UK. Where is the balance here? What about the years of hard times Scotland has already faced as it is part of the UK?

Scotland is a basket case of an economy, rapidly deteriorating towards a Middle Eastern model of non-competitive jobs and subsidies for all on the back of oil revenues, all the while knowing that these are going to end in a generation or two. Equally though, the people of Scotland are fixated on this issue and the key driver for them appears, from ballot box results, to be arguing over the distribution of said monies. This is why Labour and the left wing SNP do so well. Neither are too fussed about business or the wider economy, instead its all about re-distribution.

Scotland is welcome to this game, its a democratic one and its their choice. English scare stories about their loss of oil revenues are just that, there will be strong oil revenues for Scotland from the North Sea for at least one more generation. If then they want Independence, they should have it.

In fact, it should be encouraged, there is much to be said for losing the Scots from the UK. They will be better off emotionally whilst the rest of the UK will be better of financially. We just need to stop all this crazy talk of them being in penury forever, lest they believe it and decide to shackle themselves to the Union forever....

Cyprus: Not So Much A Haircut ...

How much would you like off?

Under a headline 'Bank of Cyprus Executes Depositor Bail-In', the DTel gives us the ghastly numbers.

• 37.5% of deposits over €100k converted to equity
• a further 22.5% held in reserve 
• yet a further 30% frozen

(The core phrase there seems highly apposite, doesn't it ?   '...Cyprus Executes Depositor ...')

Now then, you Scotties, how about independence and joining the Euro ?

I was also interested to read a couple of weeks ago that Germany's 'Council of Wise Men' have declared that deposits are all too easily spirited away (and depositors are all too often German); so that the next rescue should be based on property levies.  They've noticed that when property holdings are taken into account, Germans are by no means the wealthiest folk in Europe.

That's all well and good on paper, O Wise Ones, but (a) you'll need to mark those property values to market quite carefully; and (b) who has the liquid assets to pay property levies on the required scale ?  And if they do, pray where do they keep them ?

ND

Scottish Corproate Financial Blackmail, again

In 2008 we had the sad sight of a Scottish UK Prime Minister firstly bailing out the bust Bank Royal Bank of Scotland and then, allegedly, pushing the other bust Scottish Bank, HBOS into a disastrous merger with a healty Lloyds Bank.

As said at then and since, these banks were 'too big too fail.' The cost of closing them and the losses which would be incurred were deemed to great to bear, so instead £160,000,000,000 was handed to them in the way of guarantees. Half of this has now been paid back or withdrawn. The Government has also put in place legisaltion to ring-fence banks so that hopefully we do not get into the situation again of having Banks that are too big to fail.

By comparison, yesterday's vote by the Scottish Premier League is in financial terms a pittance in comparison. What is interesting though is the language used to defend the actions of Rangers Football club. The 'Newco' (Sevco) formed to takeover from Rangers wanted to stay in the Premier League and tried to hold the clubs to financial ransom - or at least make them overly aware of the consequences of not voting them a free entry. The fact that Rangers had over spent and effectively cheated for years using financial doping, the same way that RBS and HBOS has splurged on leverage, was neither here nor there.

In fact the new club, Sevco Scotland, have been at all the votes and trying hard to influence them - despite not being registered and by all rights the share that the SPL have should have been removed on the 4th of July. The clear financial implications have been spelt out, with 90% drop in prize money one of the outcomes. It is to the credit of the other clubs that they ignored this and voted to do the right thing by exiting Sevco and I hope they can deal with the consequences

It does not say much for the organisation of the Scottish game that such shenanigans are allowed, but the prospect of so much lost money tends to overide thoughts of principle - as my colleague Nick Drew often discuss on this blog. Players who have left under TUPE, improperly enacted, are even being threatened with being sued by the Newco (a very tenuous legal effort I was think) for example.

This is a sad episode, not that the story of my own team Leeds is much different south of the border, but it bodes ill for Scotland as a whole that such a sorry mess can engulf one of the Countrys best known institutions.

Finally, what for Scottish Independence? As regulars readers will know I am a big fan of this, living in London and wanting a smaller military role in the World for the the Scots going their own way makes sense, taking their mad socialism with them. But with many of their major private institutions wrecked by former Directors will this have an impact on whether the Scots people trust themselves to govern and regulate effectively under their own steam?

Salmond Baiting Season

So, the protracted Salmond-baiting season has started, and he's already been wrong-footed neatly by the merest of opening gambits. His endless game of 'referendum-but-I-won't-tell-you-when' has been called smartly to an ignominious halt, and the best he can do to cover his blushes is to pick a date later than the one Cameron suggested.

Much more of this and his reputation as the smartest political operator in these isles will take a bit of a re-assessment. Of course he is wily, determined and as focused as only a monomaniac can be - so he'll often steal a march when no-one else is looking. There will tactical ebbing and flowing for months to come.

But the long-overdue power-play will soon be seen, the game's afoot, and the beaters will drive him into the open. If Hatfield Girl is correct, every man's hand is turned agin him and he may end up pretty bruised.

For the record: it means something to be a Brit; I am a unionist; he is a charlatan; and I wish him three years of misery.

ND

UPDATE - apparently we have George 'student politics' Osborne to thank for this. No surprises there ... game on!

History Corner: Forced Political Union

At the start of the 18th Century, the Scots were in trouble. A run of bad harvests was bad enough, but it was perhaps the ill- fated Darien scheme that really brought Scotland face to face with its inability to hack it on the world stage. They'd tried to play with the big boys; convinced them- selves they were worthy of a place in the sun ... but it wasn't ever really on. The country was up a gumtree and, individually, the cream of Scottish society had lost huge amounts in the Darien venture.

The stage was set for a bail-out by England, which came at a price, of course. Large sums of cash were forthcoming from south of the border (some of which went straight into the pockets of Scottish negotiators), facilitating the Act of Union and, incidentally, binding Scotland into underwriting a chunk of England's national debt. The Scottish Pound was fixed in relation to the English currency (at the demeaning rate of 1:20). A single monarchy capped the deal. Political and financial union was thereby completed in return for a short-term infusion of urgently needed £££. The Edinburgh mob rioted, but to no avail: and as Robbie Burns was later to bewail of his countrymen -

"we're bought and sold for English Gold - such a parcel of rogues in a Nation!"

Yes folks, this is how independence is bought and sold. Coming to a Mediterranean nation near you soon; and perhaps to all of us, if we don't tread carefully.

Still, some say the Act of Union was the making of Scotland ... eh, Alex ?

ND

No downside to the Scottish licensing bill

At the Scottish Parliament's presentation on alcohol by the Sterling Cooper advertising agency everyone is very excited. Mr Daryl McCool is winding up..

"And folks.. The icing, on the cream, on the cherry, on the cake; is..... its going to be a Revenueeeeee........ Raaaaaiiiser."

{Gasps of amazement..loosened blouse buttons and ties}

"Its good for you. Its healthy. It requires taxation and compliance through off limit areas and signage, and monitoring of compliance and targets also. Its a jobs creator too! It gives you some pricing and incomes controls. This policy will save lives. Babies lives. Animals lives. It lifts kids out of poverty and ends crime. It reduces drugs; noise, waste, glass shards, litter, bad behaviour,broken street architecture, vomit on the pavements, knife crime, teenage pregnancies, hoodies in parks, under-age sex, St D's, graffiti, gun crime, accidental death, muggings, lost property, broken cell phones, snapped heels and B.O.

{more gasps, more loosening}

It frees up landfill, taxi routes, improves the bus service, aluminium reserves, street cleaners, paramedics,firemen, police, nurses, doctors, beds, haulage and PCSO's. It will improve school results, doctors waiting lists, treasury accounts and Vat revenues. It will improve work attendance, sick days lost, missed school days,productivity, liver transplant availability, dehydration, car crashes, pedestrian injuries, Accident and Emergency visits, and frees up incalculable NHS resources. It will reduce accidents in the home and domestic violence. Abuse of the elderly and stains on the carpet. Alcohol or otherwise !
Oh..it will also end drunken phone calls to ex lovers that you would be embarrassed by in the morning. {beams smile}

Ladies an' gen'lmen this policy, this beautiful, beautiful policy will increase your incomes while reducing your outgoings. It will increase everyone's incomes as they abandon the beer. It initially restores falling sales to the pub trade too, but like the congestion charge and taxes in general..prices can only go one way.. {laughter..'its true' says someone}

This is the only bill you will need this year. It's popular with the voting majority and has an unarguable argument for those opposed.

"It's for your own good. We want to help you"

"May I present the "Scottish Licensing Bill 2009"

{Thunderous applause and standing ovation for the presenters.
As the applause dies away assembly members slump back into their chairs smiling and nodding and shaking hands with at each other.}

"This is the mother lode policy. This is the Broadway Musical of policies. It has everything!"

{As everyone flopped breathlessly in their chairs, panting and deep breathing with flushed exhaustion, one brighter than the average spark, jumps up.}

"We could do this with other things too, couldn't we? We could say these things about.. well lots of things, right?"

And the slick Adman clicks to the next power-point.

"Way ahead of you sir."

"We are making tracks..to beat snacks...{click}
Crisps. Dealing with our children's greatest danger."

SNP ministers spent £36,000 on booze at official receptions last year, it was revealed yesterday.
The bar bill has nearly doubled in four years.