End of the bond boom, mind your pension

The US has finally raised interest rates from a measly 0.5% to a paltry 0.75%.


As ever though with these things is it the direction of travel that matters. When Japan tried this after wrecking its economy of with excessive quantitative easing it realised that it could not longer raise rates fare before inhibiting any real growth. The Country has remained moribund ever since.


With the USA, there is more hope than Japan, the economy has several inflation generating activities (like shale oil and gas) which also boost growth at a low cost. If the Fed makes this rise stick then European Bonds and UK gilts are in for a sharp price drop.


In Europe there is no sign of a recovery similar to that of the US, bar the UK and Germany. The EU central bank is still pumping the QE poison merrily into the system in the hope that it will soothe all the ills. Like gambling addict, the result is the constant doubling down of all bets.


If you have a long-term pension it is possible to see this turn (which is immense after nearly 10 years of one way bets) as a positive in that lower bond prices beget higher yields. But if you bought those bonds at high prices your actual investment hit will be as bad or worse than any income accumulation.


Bizarrely, this will juice the stock market instead, which is already quite fully priced.


Reality needs to return to economic to try and save the Western world, that does not mean the road will not be bumpy, mind.

Fed runs out of Ammo

The US has reduced its interest rate to 0.25% or less. The lowest it has ever been. A true test of monetary economic theory. Will it revive the economy? Will it actually kick-off yet another asset bubble ( in gold maybe..)?

The key question is, what do you do when you run out of ammo? What rocks is the Fed going to throw next?