Question Time quiz

David Dimbleby will be joined in London by the Lord Adonis, Boris Johnson, Shirley Williams, Carol Vorderman and Will Self.

Shirley Williams is on so often she must have a reserved sticker on her chair. Usual rules - 6 guesses. Bonus points for correctly predicting the spurious links that politicians make between the questions.

This week we may even have a player in the audience..

BQ
1} Bulger killer : We have a right to know, for some ill defined reason. Bravest will point the absurdity of this stance.Populists will go with the Mail. Gordon wades in unnecessarily today.

2} Michael Foot was the last honest politician. Didn't stop him being the most out of touch for his age, but he was a socialists socialist. Shirley 'gang of four' will be generous.Can Will Self resist languidly asking her Ladyship and His Lordship to comment on Mr Foot's decision to decline all bourgeois honours.

3} Ashcroft non-dom - non-interest story.

4} BBC cuts - Boo-Hoo round . Will anyone dare mention reducing,rather than maintaining the inflation proofed increases to the licence fee?

5} Londoners will not get preferential treatment for the Olympics, despite paying for it.

6} Footie - England in the top 8. Bound to win the world cup now.

Protection from the Brown Devaluation

Cityunslicker has been a bit busy moving house the past few days. Nonetheless even the lack of internet and television has not hidden the rather sudden collapse in the Pound from me.

For some reason the newspapers are saying that this is all due to the chance of a hung Parliamnet; what they really mean is if Labour get back in the markets will turn a big thumbs down to the UK. Ken Clarke Speaks the Truth.

Also they are very wary about the lack of a real budget date being announced (see more on a later post). This makes the market sorry that the Government is going to try and avoid any painful public discussions.

So what can you do to protect yourself from the fall in the Pound and to judge the coming few months?

Well, here are some suggestions.

Firstly, the key dates are the election and the budget. if labour are doing well then the Pound is toast for both of these, it is probably toast for a budget anyway as Labour will not announce any real spending cuts a few weeks before an election. On the plus side, the end of April will see what analysts think are positive growth numbers for Q1 and so that should  bounce the Pound.

So where are we in currency terrms? Here are a few graphs:

As you can see, the Pound is down 13 cents on the year against the US dollar and very slightly agains the Euro. As it costs 2% or 3% to change your currency, these don't look like much of a hedge against a further fall in although the Dollar is the better choice. This is why FTSE stocks that earn their money in dollars are zooming off the charts today (see VOD.L for example). The real standout here is Aussie Dollars, with no recession in Australia, the Pound's trend is well established and 12 cents on the year looks like just the start. if you want o open a foreign bank account for your money, Aussie Dollars are the way forward (Canadian Dollars look similar too).       

Somewhat easier perhaps is the final graph, showing the performance of the FTSE and the Physical Gold ETF, PHAU. Both are well up ont eh year, especially the Physical Gold ETF. Of course the Physical Gold ETF can also be held in a tax free ISA or SIPP.

As we approach the budget and the election and you feel worried, the above may be of some help. If on the other hand the Tories appear to take a strong lead again, then the opposite positions will work out. Tin hats for all and good luck!

The Battle of Dunbar

History Corner

In 1650 a Scottish army under Leven and Leslie was in a commanding position over an English force under the brooding Cromwell that was weakened and demoralised by a string of setbacks. Victory seemed certain for the Scots.

However, the ultra-purist Covenanters held sway over the conduct of Scottish strategy. On the very eve of battle they called for an ideological purge, which resulted in the dismissal of some 80 of the most experienced Scottish officers, and many of the rank and file.

Cromwell, outnumbered and holed up in Dunbar, spotted an opportunity presented by the disarray and uncertain positioning of the superior Scottish forces and struck a master-blow. A night attack by his cavalry broke the Scottish line and rout ensued, with minimal English casualties. Cromwell had plucked an unlikely victory from the jaws of defeat, exploiting to the full his opponents' ineptitude.

ND

Ed Miliband is Bananas Too

George Monbiot is not everyone's cup of tea, but he's an honest man. This, from the Grauniad, on the occasion of Little Ed Miliband's completely barmy feed-in tariffs for home-generated electricity, to be introduced (you guessed) on April 1st.

"Are we really going to let ourselves be duped into this solar panel rip-off? Plans for the grid feed-in tariff suggest we live in southern California. And at £8.6bn, this is a pricey conceit with little benefit The government is about to shift £8.6bn from the poor to the middle classes. It expects a loss on this scheme of £8.2bn, or 95%"

Normally it's David Miliband who's brandishing the banana, but Little Ed is keen to prove he's bonkers too. The essence of current government energy policy-making is: the dafter the idea, the bigger the subsidy. It's specifically designed that way: Monbiot again -

"The government wants everyone to get the same rate of return. So while the electricity you might generate from large wind turbines and hydro plants will earn you 4.5p per kilowatt hour, mini wind turbines get 34p, and solar panels 41p. In other words, the government acknowledges that micro wind and solar PV in the UK are between seven and nine times less cost-effective than the alternatives"

As we've noted before the Tories are quite taken with feed-in tariffs as well. Apparently there will be a Tory energy policy along shortly. I'm trembling, and it's not with eager anticipation.

ND

Prospect of Labour Government sinks Football

This is an unlikley title, but nonetheless has some truth to it. Yesterday saw a huge fall in the pound for a single days trading, on the back of that we can expect further medium term weakness; partly cause by the Pru's need for dollars to make the huge AIG acuiqsition and partly by the markets wilting at the thought of 5 more year of Gordon Brown.

However, somewhat aligned to this is the Deloitte Annual Football money survey which was released today. Real Madrid come top and Barclenon second, the days of Man U. being top have been over for 5 years now.(how long ago was the last election?)  Although the big English clubs dominate the top ten of the table, they are no longer top of the tree and it shows on the pitch in that the really world class players like Ronaldo leave the Premier League for Spain. None of the top 3 players in the world plays in the Premier League.

In sterling terms though, the clubs have been powering ahead generating more income. In fact if the Pound was more like .80 to the Euro than .90 then the UK clubs would still be top.

 A weak Government has given us a weak currency and bequeathed a weakened premier leauge. Labour, they can even ruin your football!

Is it early too early to think about Christmas?

Cassandra was cursed with gift of prophecy. No one believed her predictions even though they were always true. Cassandra was fated to know the future but to be powerless to alter it.
A bit like Alistair Darling.

Meanwhile outside of mythology you may have noticed USA sizes on your box of trainers or top recently. Shoes are a size down and clothes several sizes different. There is loads on Ebay too.
UK fashion retailers and online shops have been buying stock in the USA for a good few months now. This is more unusual than it seems as the clothes are usually bought in $ in China or the far east and made for Europe and UK specifically.
The USA stock was cheap bargain priced canceled orders, bankrupt stock and liquidators specials as US outlets went bust and others cut back inventory.
Expect all that to end if the £ keeps tanking. Xmas orders need to be bought about now for everyone who put off doing it in Oct/November hoping to pick up bargains. The shipping time is usually 'FROM' 6 months. Leaving it late means a premium to pay for shipping.
Either way, unless the £ picks up quickly, prices will rise. Not just fashion of course. Almost everything comes from overseas and is traded in dollars. Casandra might just conceivably be seeing the inflation genie heading this way for the festive season.

Sterling - Again

We haven't needed this graphic for a bit, but it needs dusting off again.

Sterling appears to be strongly correlated to Cameron's lead in the polls ...


ND

UPDATE: posted the above @ 13:34, and at 14:20 the fragrant Stephanie Flanders, without a by-your-leave, weighs in with ...

"As the Conservative lead tumbles, so falls the pound"

but I forgive anyone whose father wrote songs like he did. At the drop of a hat-tip ? Have some Madeira, M'Dear.

Just Vote Labour

Don't blog angry!
That's the rule. You will only regret it.

Well the teeth marks are still fresh in the tongue they have been biting into to prevent making a scene at the dinner party. I haven't lost my temper at someone else's gathering since I was a young adult. But I'm home now and don't feel any better so I'm afraid, unless I delete before the end, the temper and migraine must be unleashed.

What triggers this annoyance is the floating voter. Rightly known simply as floaters among MPs. Not just the floater but the "I haven't yet made up my mind" crowd. "I am unconvinced by the arguments."
Really? You really haven't been able to form an opinion yet? What are you waiting for? What is the big sign in the sky that's going to do it for you? A personal invitation to participate in the next cabinet? A bunch of flowers? Free car? Banning all cars? What do you need, because the time is almost up.

I had "I feel let down about the Tories no referendum policy." Fine. So the answer is vote UKIP. It has to be. But someone was saying they feel let down so they are thinking of Labour. How could that be? What is the similarity between the positions. Only one party was in a position to grant a referendum, said they would, then didn't. Yet this person though he might vote Labour.
Someone else said that they weren't persuaded by the economic argument.
Well vote Labour then. Don't faff about dithering and saying 'My mind isn't made up.' Just vote Labour. Because if you cannot make a grown up decision after 13 years on whether the country is better, worse, or about the same then you have to vote for the status quo because you haven't been affected enough to want change.

It is really very very simple. If you believe that the economy is better, spending is within a manageable amount, services have improved, taxes are acceptable, crime has gone down, health care has gone up then vote Labour. If you approve high duties on motoring and alcohol and also believe 24 hour drinking has had no effect or a beneficial one on the country then vote for Brown.
If you feel that unlimited immigration has bought nothing but social and economic benefits to the country, that two wars were necessary, however they were started, to combat terrorism in this country, that wind farms should be the cornerstone of our energy policy,public transport and transport provision is at a high, that education standards have improved dramatically and that society is generally a fairer, better safer place than 13 years ago then vote Labour. If you feel that the regulation of smoking,drinking,parenting,having contact with any children, hunting or demonstrating is rightly policed by the government then vote for the socialists.
If you are too young to remember anything before 1997, and you think that your education has left you prepared for work, or that your university education was both beneficial and a reasonable cost then there is your answer.
If you believe that MPs themselves have enhanced the office of state with their behaviour from everything on selling peerages to mortgage flipping to whipped voting then vote for the government that made it all possible.

But don't ponce about saying you're not yet convinced because all the information you will ever need is only a click away on your laptop. All the benefits or otherwise are just a stroll down your local high street, a visit to the health centre, school or a tour of your workplace.
If you think that Dave is a lightweight and you're unsure then vote for Brown. The Lib Dems or any of the smaller parties are not going to win power. It is red or blue.

The choice my floating friends is painfully simple. If you are happy with what you have, then stick with it. If , like me, you think that five more months, let alone years, of the Prime minister will result in the UK becoming an"abandoned fairground for all" then vote for Cameron and at least the hope of something different..
But stop kidding that there is some magical word or phrase that would swing it all around. You either like it as it is or you want a leap into the unknown and whatever that brings with it.

Mr Brown Borrows From All Our Futures

Reporting on the UK's stellar 0.3% GDP growth in 4Q 2009, The Times identifies

... concerns that this growth had been “borrowed” from the first three months of 2010 as shoppers brought forward purchases to beat the rise in VAT at the end of last year. Economists said this increased the possibility that figures for the first three months of 2010 could be worse than those for the end of 2009

Borrowing from the future ? This is Gordon Brown's entire modus operandi !! - from PFI in the good times, to wholesale pre-election book-cooking on a monstrous scale.

Will Darling feel able to blow the whistle in his final budget ? Your final act in politics, Alistair - what's it to be ?

ND

Politics is lies - and no one cares.

A reader emailed..{the gist}

This is a question for Bill, or perhaps a suggestion for a post; why aren’t political parties more answerable for the promises they make in the run up to elections?
Mr X

Lots of reasons really.

1} The lack of any choice in alternative parties similar to a voters beliefs, means voters remain committed to a party even when the party does the opposite of what the voter wants.
So Cameron has had to admit to no Eu-referendum. The CWU union continues to fund Labour, despite Labour being committed to privatise them out of existence. But where can those unions go? Vote Tory? The Lib Dems won't win power for a decade or more even with the full support of all the unions.

2}Follows on that it is extremely difficult to create a new credible party in the UK, and even harder to gain any traction with it.
At a time of unprecedented immigration the BNP are a fringe party. Even with Lisbon and EU law precedent, UKIP has got nowhere. There has been a Green agenda since the CFC scares of the 'caring' 90', for 20 years reaching almost religious belief today. Green MP's -Zero.

3} The media rarely revisit. Gordon Brown as chancellor announced free laptops for the poorest in his 1999 budget. Where are they? He felt confident to announce it again in 2008 and yet again just a few weeks ago as an election bribe, knowing no one questions it. Even on a supposedly hard hitting program like Newsnight or the Today show, a Politico knows that if they can just hold their nerve for 5 miutes its off to another topic. 24 hour rolling news. It just rolls on.

4} Politicians lie. They deny complete U-turns until everyone gets bored with talking about them. Look at Lisbon. Labour categorically deny that they have done anything different to their manifesto promise to hold a referendum on the constitution. They maintain that today. And the Tories can't really keep on about it as its a difficult area for them also.

5} And, voters don't really care. By that I mean millions marched against the Iraq war - years later just hundreds turned up to heckle Mr Blair at Chilcot.

And a judge ruled that politicians can't be held to manifesto promises. Even ones printed on laminated cards and held up by John Prescott as some sort of success at every opportunity.
Or it may simply be that the dancing show is on the telly and that's more important.

There is some evidence in the polling of a government lying and not getting completely away with it. Labour have lost support from the middle classes for promising education/education/education yet kids can't read. Health service 'envy of the world', yet the dead pile up to meet targets. Students, unbelievably really, turn away from leftie causes when the economic cost of university lands on them. More 16-20's are polling for Dave than Gordon. But in the main Labour get a solid 30 -35% of votes whatever they do and the Tories a 30 - 38% and that is how its been for a long time. What happens when people disbelieve the garbage they are told is they don't vote at all. 80% turnouts now around 60%.

It was a good email and a very valid question. Why don't politicians face real scrutiny ?
So if you have any other reasons why we knowingly let the leaders get away with it please post them.

The Ghost of revisions past

Given I am moving house today, this post has been pre-prepared; very unlike me to do any such planning. However this morning the ONS revisions of the UK GDP Q4 2009 will be announced. I have been reading that the insiders in the City reckon it will be revised up to 0.2 growth. The less optimisitic think it will be revised down to 0% growth (as our the Lord Chancellor is fond of saying).

My hunch is for the downside as retial sales were very poor and although manufacturing was stronger it does not look good for the economy.

However, before I get side-tracked into the minutiae, the overall point is that this is a class A disaster fot eh UK public finances. The overall fall of UK GDP will still be something like 6% - even Mervyn King has admitted this in the House of Commons. Also this result is far worse than Alistair Darling predicted in the last budget, he was told by Balls and Brown that growth would be strong at the end of 2009 and through 2010.

Turns out of course that it wil be nothing of the sort. So now the deficit will be even worse than the cataclysmic predicitions that were made in April 2009. Oh dear, not a good day for the UK.

UPDATE: Revised up to 0.3% horray for the UK - still pretty poor though considering all the money poured in to try and kick-start the economy! (back to moving for me)

Question Time

David Dimbleby will be joined in Cardiff by Peter Hain, Dr Liam Fox, Elfyn Llwyd, Nigel Farage and Janet Street Porter.

Farage has been sounding off about the uselessness of Van Rompuy.
JSP is good for sexuality and social media stories...

BQ predicts...

1. Hospital deaths and trusts
2. Bullying Brown + Badger baiting
   
3. Sexualisation of Jordan's children
   
4. Argentina / UK oil
5. School committees

Forces Of Hell Closing In On Brown

Seems that Brown can feel the Hand of Destiny on his shoulder.

And the by-line is Shipman ...

Yup, it's all closing in on Gordon.




NP

RBS and Lloyds Report 2009 earnings

At my command - Unleash Hell

remember last years Blockbuster. - Drama - promises - Plots -Tears - Conflict - Destruction -Debt ...

Badgiator.

The story of a general, reduced to a slave by a cunning, unelected, tyrant emperor.
Maximus Snoozimus Alistus becomes the greatest hero in Rome when he turns his back on the domineering dictator.



Commodehead - "You are truly a great counter of numbers..Almost as good as myself..What is your name slave?"

Alistus - "My name is Badgiator" {He partially turns his back on the despot}

Commodehead - "How dare you not support me with 100% loyalty,despite all the briefing I've done against you. Tell me your name!"

Alistus - "My name is Maximus Snoozimus Alistus, commander of the public sector workers of the North, General of all the benefit Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Antonius Blarus. Father to a murdered economy, husband to the bankrupt treasury . And I will still be chancellor, at this budget and the next. "

Commodehead - "No you won't! Ballsus, McBrido, Watsum - At my command, Unleash Hell"

Why the IMF are wrong

The IMF have come out today with a report suggesting that Advanced Countries do not end financial stimulus (this is what our Prime Minister is addcited too, remember?) before 2011 for fear of causing a double dip recession.

No doubt the bullying left wing cheerleaders will say the Tories are wrong again. Where to start? Well firstly Dominique Strauss-Kahn who is the Frenchman who runs the IMF is a marxist and so will always think state spending is a good idea.

Secondly, George Osborne had a good phrase at the start of the crisis "You can't borrow your way out of a borrowing crisis." This is even more truwe today, even with sclerotic growth in the economy, piling up debts on top this shaky foundations is simply not the answer.

Thirdly, all this so called stimulus and Government spending is not economically beneficial. Quantitative Easing has been used to boost the bond and equity markets (good for those who foresaw this), which has bailed out the banks but done nothing to increase demand in the real economy. The Government spending on diversity counsellors, bullying hotlines and regional quangos' is of dubious value except to those who collect the paychecks. It would be much easier to scrap the lot of these jobs and then raise unemployment benefit by 80% of the savings made.

Finally, a double dip - where is the evidence in the UK that we have even exited recession? The UK is in a far worse position thanks to Labour overspending in the boom than France or Germany. We are simply not in a position to spend more of our children's money so frivolously.

So where do we get too? Well a sensible Chancellor would start cutting the fat off the public sector straight away, at least 5% a year for the next Parliament should do it. Quantitative Easing should not be re-started as it only piles up future losses. If the banks need more money they can raise it in the market like they did last  year.

Gazprom Capitulates: Now The Fun Begins

What a difference 4 months can make ...

Back in October when we started reporting on the cloak-and-dagger Gazprom contract re-negotiation saga, we had the friendly gas giant stating categorically that, notwithstanding the 're-opener' clauses in Continental European gas contracts, nothing needed to change. In November we had them denying that spot markets (with prices running at half those of the oil-indexed gas contracts) had any relevance at all. Last month we reported that Gazprom had started trading the spot markets good and proper: and now, finally, they've conceded not only price-levels, but also indexation in their re-negotiations. There will be (some) gas indexation in their big long-term contracts henceforward, as well as a downward adjustment to the absolute price level right away.

"The spot market is playing a certain role and we have taken this role into account in our contracts" the source, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, told Reuters.

We've been predicting (well, hoping for) this for quite a while and it has enormous significance.

1. It will open the sluices on the long-constipated German spot market - which (as well as lowering gas prices still further, and potentially by a noticeable amount) provides the missing piece in the European gas market jigsaw, needed to provide security of supply for the UK. This should have happened 5 years ago but better late than never: it is Unqualified Good News.

2. It will have a monster impact on the internal Russian energy market. Russian policy (strongly advocated by Gazprom) is for subsidised internal prices of gas to be allowed to converge, over time, with their export prices (on a netback basis, i.e. correcting for transportation costs). Firstly, this is made much easier with lower export price levels, so it will happen sooner (and will compensate Gazprom somewhat for lost export revenues). This will quickly work to reduce Russian gas demand - which has long been wildly inefficient based on ultra-low prices (and often no metering!) - freeing up more for export: another win for Europe.

Secondly, Russian industrial electricity prices are pegged to fuel prices, also on a netback basis: these will consequently fall in the short term (giving Russian industry a much needed boost) but in the long run will be more convergent with European market prices, at a discount based on the netback. The long term ramifications could be profound.

(As you can tell, I'm quietly excited, folks ...)

ND

UK House prices trend to fall

I am moving at the end of this week, so this latest bit of news is not good for those of us hoping to get rich out of living in our houses (this comment is aimed at winding up Mark Wadsworth).

Effecitvly the rate of mortgage lending, always low at this time of year, has fallen to an eight and a half year low. Always remember with an expanding population and more houses being built every year this is quite a reduction in real terms activity.

So what does this point to falling prices? Well logically it suggests there are not too many people either wealthy enough or confident enough to want to move house. Whilst this holds up supply of houses (and oddly, boost listed housebuilders who benefit from providing the supply trickle) and provides some temprorary suport to prices; long-term it suggests the market is still too high. Last year's recovery trend is running out of steam.

The saving grace that will stop another 20% correction is the low interest rate environment combined with 3.5% CPI inflation. This means that saving is not for anyone, as I have blogged recently and so investing in housing, althought illiquid, has some appeal. That, plus a possible fall in Sterling, makes it hard to predict where house prices will end up in nominal terms this year, in real terms I expect a 10% drop.

Where is the recovery though from the recession? Business seems to be picking up to a sustained level, but as these figures show, there is no real growth, just bumping along the bottom.

I'm Mandy. Lie, Me ?

How edifying to hear the fragrant Lord Mandelson strenuously asserting that bullying isn't tolerated, full stop.

Back in the '90's I worked in an office in No.4 Millbank, where the MSM have their Westminster studios, and NuLab had a pied-à-terre. One day in the corridor I saw Mandy berating a small group of young-ish folk, whom I took to be either Party functionaries or junior broadcasting hacks. He was assuring them, quietly but in the most menacing terms, that if whatever-it-was were to reoccur, he would personally ensure they never worked in London again.

Perhaps this was not bullying, but merely a statement of fact. It did seem to be having a profound, not to say diuretic effect. There isn't a political journo in the land who couldn't tell similar tales.

But things have moved on and today Mandy is a different person. How times have changed, eh ?

ND

Workplace Bullying: How to handle it

Watching the Government decide today to go for Mrs pratt, the head of an Anti-Bullying Charity is pretty gruesome. The left as ever live up to their lofty ideals only when it suits them. I can't imagine how splenetic their froth would be were a Tory team slagging off a belvoed and unarmed third sector worker.

Anyhow, time will tell if 10 downing street have pulled the pin on the greande or succeeded in distracting from Andrew Rawnsley's unchallenged allegations.

From my perspective I have personal experience of being bullied at work, working int he City for large organisations it is hardly a rarity I assume. One thing I have learned though is to stand up to it. In the past 3 years I have twice had bosses who tried to bully and lie their way to get me out. Neither was successful. With one I was forced to go to external counsel when the company took his side. That had the nice effect of making everyeone have a little re-think about te facts and in the end the whole situation was resolved most amicably. When I was younger I don't think I would have had the stamina or confidence to take such a course, but it proved the right one.

Having to stand against a huige organisation and its management make me recall just how stressful a time that was. I hope Mrs Pratt can continue to stand up for what she has said against the Government bullying, it is the only way in the end; you can't win by running away as firstly the bullies chase you down and secondly your own confidence is so knocked that it will be hard to come back phsycologically.

I do wish our Government would desist from media witch-hunting in packs, but with 24 news and social media, I don't think this is ever going to change back now.