Wednesday, 6 June 2007

Tin hats all round?

Well the ECB has raised rates to 4% today, as Euro inflation hit 2% (tell this to the Spanish!).

Morgan Stanley warned today that all its key indicators for a share price crash were flashing red.

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold rates tomorrow as the UK fantasy inflation number of 3% has fallen back to 2.8%. In reality we really still have inflation at nearer 5% once you include the cost of housing and taxes.

My hunch is that they may well stick a .25% increase on the base rates tomorrow, just to be sure of slaying inflation. I also think if they do this it may well be one of the triggers for the collapse that
Morgan Stanley is predicting.

It is always so hard, if not impossible, to predict a crash or decline, thanks to herd behaviour and the irrationality of the markets. However, everything is now in place really and so it will happen. Don't know when, but it will.

Welcome to your world, Gordon Brown!

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

So they kept rates the same! Strange that. CPI's at 2.8%, Mervyn says that they are prepared to do 'whatever it takes' to bring it down to 2%, so whats the problem?
Obviously 'whatever it takes' does not include raising rates.

CityUnslicker said...

anon - I quite agree, this may now mean 2 rate rises later in the year.

Ouch.

Steven_L said...

My new employer has offered me a pension fund where I can choose (between 10 different managed funds, one is UK commercial property, one 'cash', one UK government bonds then ranging up to higher risk funds that invest both in the UK only, a mix or outside the UK only up to Japan only) what percentage of my contributions to distribute between them, if you see what I mean.

I'm not any sort of economist and don't do cityspeak, but I'm interested in financial stuff, like reading wikipedia pages on things like that, the financial press and documents on asset managers websites. So I think I'd rather choose where the cash goes, and hedge my bets, than let them stuff it all in one JP Morgan fund.

What kind of investment should I be looking for over the next few years then?

I'm was thinking about sticking about 35% in UK and world bonds then hedge the rest in equity funds. Is Japan worth a punt?

Now I read this I'm thinking should I putit in cash and bonds only? What about Uk commercial property?

Not looking for a definative answer, just any pro's and cons you might know of.

CityUnslicker said...

Have got to be careful here as there are regs around offering advice.

But basically, in a longet term fund you want things to be balanced, so what you have said makes sense; some high risk assets, some low risk assets, bonds and cash is a good balance.

pommygranate said...

Slicker

Inflation 'fell back' to 2.8% did it? My my, what's the weather like in the la-la land of the UK Stats Office.

6-8% is the real rate and that's obv not including asset price inflation, which is 12-15%.

thanks for your vote! keep voting!

Anonymous said...

I am that rather rare thing in this Country, a saver with plenty of cash and no debts!!

Therefore an interest rate rise increases my wealth.

I do worry about my son though,because he has loads of debt and has to hold down a job in the real world.

Me? Club Class yet again.

CityUnslicker said...

Pommy - I think the Telegraph has it right. Depending on who you are the inflation rate can be between 1% and 9%. Bascially, the older you are the worse it gets...

CityUnslicker said...

Ken - well good for you. Plenty of options for investment at the moment, some are quite scary though! You always need to understand the underlying risk factors.

As for the youth of today, in whcih I just about include myself. They will be the first generation since the war to have a worse level of living than their parents.

Anonymous said...

i spend all my money on chinese dvd players so my inflation rate is realy
low but ppeople who eat drink and pay council tax are screwed.

Anonymous said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,

Anonymous said...

情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,

免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,