Wednesday 12 November 2008

"prices will plunge on the high street" says Daily Mail

Daily Mail yesterday predicted "prices will plunge on the high street". This is because of the 1% fall in factory gate prices for October, the biggest drop since 1986 and will mean cheaper goods.

The Mail also has the headline "Pound hits all time low against the Euro" The article goes on about how holidays will be more expensive now that a pound is fetching just 1.22 euros, down from 1.42 last year. The dollar also gets a mention as Holidaymakers travelling to America have also seen the pound fall from a $2 high in July to $1.57 now. Poor holidaymakers. Especially as that isn't even the tourist rate which is more like $1.48.

But the Daily Mail fails to join up the two stories even though

All your consumer white goods electricals, shoes, clothes, garden products,mobile phones, packaging, Plasmas etc are purchased in dollars. That's the basis for the Daily Mail's forecast of a record spending spree? A 1% fall in factory gate prices measured against a 25% loss in the value of the pound against the dollar. "Prices are being slashed by up to 70% by some stores with retailers promising the biggest bargains in 30 years" the article claims.

Maybe . If she'd looked a bit closer she would have seen they were in complete size scales and colour ratios meaning that they had only just gone on sale. These are "sale only" goods that have been purchased back when the $ was nice and high at $1.95 ish in the spring. All shops have them.M&S are doing a 3 for 2 on their Xmas decorations. But then they did that last year too. And the year before. And so do Boots. And Waterstones. And Republic. And... Retailers knew the downturn was coming and have shrunk inventories accordingly.

However sales figures alone {British retail consortium showing 2.2% fall} are bad enough to mean there will be some heavy discounting in December whatever the factory gate price or the dollar price may do.


Nick Drew said...

at least one can form a decent assessment of a retail bargain

far more worrying is the 'share price bargain': we know, logically, there will be many, but which ones are they ???

Jon said...

BG is a great bargain just now (he said, not in any way influenced by his own large holding).

Any resonance with "BL" should be ignored.

Old BE said...

We still make quite a lot of white goods here, don't we?

Bill Quango MP said...

Not too sure of the whole sector but saw this this morning..virtual manufacturer

Anonymous said...

Sounds good to me, as long as we don't get runaway deflation.

Anonymous said...

Blue Eyes, we don't make any frigging white goods here mate. There is no consumer electronics production to speak of in the UK anymore. A good indicator is the solder paste market (used to attach components to printed circuit boards). Back in 1998 the market in the UK was circa 1000 tonnes/yr. Now it is less than 130 tonnes/yr. We are going to get the inflation from hell in this country because almost everything is imported and our currency is collapsing. Give it 2 months & we will be at parity with the euro.

The wider consumer electronics biz is deeply in the shit. Flat panel display manufacturers are cutting production in Q4 by 30-35%.

Jeremy Jacobs said...

Fine but how many times a year do you buy a fridge?

Anonymous said...

jj, nearly everything you buy is imported. Wake up & smell the inflation. You now live in a sharecropper economy.

Bill Quango MP said...

Come on, pay attention JJ.
Rising prices in Asia and the falling value of the pound will make a total mockery of the BOE's forcast of 1% inflation.

Anonymous said...

bill quango mp,

So, inflation will take off again will it?

Man, this is confusing! ;)

Laissez fairie isn't so great now...or is it?

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