Friday, 28 August 2009

Trading Interview with Guido Fawkes

Today is the first in a series of interviews with a variety of people who are interested in trading. First up is the UK's number one blogger, Guido Fawkes. Guido often comments on trading and always has a place for it on his blog; he is right far more often than not and himself has a background of working in Finance.



Cityunslicker(CU):
What are the markets that interest you?

GF(Guido Fawkes):
Generally I try to trade in generic markets and indices. For example futures on commodities and derivatives. I look at whole sectors and not specific stocks.

CU: Why not stocks?

GF: I am put off by other people knowing better than me and some limited and bitter experience. Trading in 1997 to 2001 was great in dotcom stocks....I even managed to keep half my next wealth between 2000-2001. Lesson learned.
CU: Where are you placing your bets for the rest of 2009?

GF: Gilt markets on the short side is my bet, but this is hindered by greatly quantitative easing messing with the market dynamics; but I don't want to be out of the market when it does collapse.I am prepared to take some heat on it waiting for the inevitable. I know I should be getting long stocks but I am averse to it at the moment.
Also I have some Private Equity investments that are taking up a lot of time. I don't review hundreds of pitches, but meet people directly so as to keep these quite focused to a few select opportunities.
Long-term I would be betting on India, which I see as better than China due to the legal system and English language advantage. But the Bombay stock exchange very volatile, so I would look to funds like the Merrill Lynch one.

CU: One of my current picks is Unitech Corporate Parks, an AIM share that owns a number of business parks across India, as usual, one for the brave. How addicted to trading are you?

GF:
I really like doing it, I should do 3 or 4 trades a year rather than 40 as I'd be more successful then. I knew that the weekend when Darling said the UK was screwed that I should have put more in to shorting the Pound. I did well but it was such an easy trade.
My wife is always saying I should to go back to financial markets, but for me playing in the markets is risk capital for - even losing it all would not ruin my life.

CU:
What are your best and worst ever impulse trades?

GF:
The best one was in a German biotech firm that returned 300% on day one, thanks to me meeting a broker at the right time. I made a lot of money out of the globe .com too - I knew it was crap, but could see it would fly for a short while in that market environment and got out way ahead. It tanked in the end, but noy for me,
My worst decision was to turn down 500k worth of stock in the Google IPO - turned down 20% profit on day one. I felt so burnt by tech stocks from the dotcom mess that I could not accept the recommendation.

CU: Thanks Guido, good luck with your trading picks.

I think Guido is pretty on the money with his calls, QE is going to mess with the Gilt market though and may well string out the inevitable. Also the Government may choose a sharp devaluation over interest rate rises, so a hedge on the pound collapsing would make the position safer.

9 comments:

Bill Quango MP said...

Also the Government may choose a sharp devaluation over interest rate rises, so a hedge on the pound collapsing would make the position safer.

Tourist rate is down to 1.05 today from 1.14 a few weeks ago.
Why the plunge down?

CityUnslicker said...

We are doing lots of QE, everyone else either did not do it or is stopping. Pound sinking as a result.

Nick Drew said...

... not specific stocks.
CU: Why not stocks?
GF: I am put off by other people knowing better than me


too right, someone (else) always has an edge and it's his game, not yours

electro-kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
electro-kevin said...

How many other countries are doing QE ?

Blue Eyes said...

I am a bit confused about a devaluation vs interest rate rise. Do you mean that if the bank doesn't raise rates the pound will collapse or do you mean something else?

Steven_L said...

I'm hazarding a guess that he means faced with falling gilt prices (i.e. a rise in sterling interest rates) the government would rather print more money and push it into the system (QE) in an attempt to sustain lower interest rates, thus increasing the amount of sterling in existence and possibly devaluing it as investors dump it.

CityUnslicker said...

SL - yup.

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