Brown's Valantines gift to the UK. A February election.

Political Betting have rumours of a February election to be announced tomorrow.
Edward Heath lost his February gamble in 1974. Would Prime Minister Brown, not known for taking big risks, really call an election with so little backing him up?

Well, I would theorise that are some pretty good reasons why he might.
1} Things aren't going to get a lot better, they may get worse. The good Christmas retail figs {6%} masked a pretty dismal December {0.3%} with lousy economic figures for the April quarter, caused by the snow and the fragile recovery faltering. Plus the good, if a little spun, unemployment figures, are unlikely to be repeated with all the seasonal lay offs and some big real job losses already announced {First Quench - Corus - } now about ready to join the lagged statistics. More are on the way. Adams childrenswear failed again today.2,000 jobs at risk. Cadbury?}

2} Gordon can sidestep the leaders debates by going early. There's no time, and it isn't agreed. Even if he has to do some, he can insist on his format of 2/3 Labour audience which producers will have to agree, as will opposition if its just 5 weeks to go.

3} The move will rattle the opposition, especially the Libs and Nats who probably aren't ready. Labour can call on a union loan/gift for a war chest. Would Unite refuse? Who would they rather have in power. Gordon or Dave? Even CWU, who this government has tried to privatise still donate to the Labour party.

4} The Iraq enquiry is making Labour's chances harder. Some bad news on how unprepared the army was by procurement failures today, Goldsmith and the big Blair on Friday. A PR failure for Gordon Brown. But the Prime minister's own 'Cast Iron' guarantee can be neatly avoided. If he is fighting an election he can't be called..As stated in the Chilcot letter.

5} Gordon is televising the 'economic miracle' that sees the UK finally crawl out of recession. It hasn't been televised before. {0.4% is the GDP guess from the experts. If its ,say, 0.6% Gordon and Darling can claim they have steered the country through the economic icebergs and are the most trusted to go full speed to a safe, painless recovery.}
Today's ICM poll is just marginal enough for a hung parliament or feeble Tory win.
T:40% -La: 29% - Li: 21%
It can't get much better for Brown. But it could get a lot worse. Strikes are looming BA , Underground strikes, mail strikes...

This time the good news could launch Gordon to a hung parliament.

There are still plenty of options against. Odds still appear to be 40/1 so the bookies still fancy May/June. Tomorrow could just be yet another damp squib relaunch. We shall see.