Friday 23 April 2010

UK Q1 GDP growth at 0.2%: Treasury fail

Whomever forms the next Government one of their first jobs is going to have to be lining up the Treasury mandarins against the wall and giving them their P45's.

Today's figures for GDP growth are exactly in line with what most independent economists expected.

However, they are far behind what the Government was forecasting. Even the BBC is forced to the old chimera of claiming that the figures will be revised upwards - who is to say they won't come downwards? (Historically the revisions work out about 50-50).

What this shows is how craven the Treasury is tot he wishes of the discredited Labour Party. Clearly the advice for the Budget was fudged to help the Government. This is not the role of the independent Civil Service.

With 0.2% growth there is little chance in the rest of the year of the GDP figures for growth hitting the Treasury predictions - this means more spending on social welfare and lower tax receipts - a double whammy to the budget and national deficits. Remember too the comparatives for this Quarter are still with the dreadful situation of this time last year.

After firing the mandarins it does confirm that a new Government is going to have to announce an emergency budget where they re-work the figures to paint a picture more akin to the truth - and that will be painful for the X-Factor Election voters.

UPDATE: Perfect Darling response to this post. We are all fine and everything is ok, at least our statistics are not dodgy like really, he said this!


Old BE said...

0.2%! That's the equivalent of finding a £20 note on the pavement and calling it an annual pay rise.

Bill Quango MP said...

//repeat //

The retail figs are +0.9% Feb/March. The early Easter helped.Taking Easter money but not facing Easter figures. Last week of March was a busy week going into Easter with half the schools off. March was quite good without the boost but April has been poor.

Hairy Arsed Bloke said...

It is not just the Treasury that needs to “get ‘em up against the wall”. The whole of the public sector needs to have a purge of all of the collaborators with the Labour regime.

As for party members, I believe that their actions warrant a full public enquire at the least, but prosecution for treason would be more appropriate. Hopefully we will all be able to enjoy the day when they receive the traditional punishment for traitors.

Budgie said...

Just heard Badger on WAO claiming these figure were just what he had predicted all along and, nooo, we are not like Greece at all. He also failed to specifically condemn the Liebore leaflets that lie about the Tories.

With Cameron trotting out the entirely discredited line about "being in Europe (that's a geographical fact, but he means the EU) but not run by the (EU)", neither of them deserve to get in. Then there is Cleggover straining to be a born again Borrox O'lama, or at least a double glazing sales rep, so we are really up the Khyber without a pass.

CityUnslicker said...

Budgie - the scene in that film where they are having dinner as the enemy attack is a perfect metaphor for the economy and the current election!

Demetrius said...

If you take the fiat money botox out of the figures my figure is a big fat minus.

CityUnslicker said...

Demetrius - Shhh, you'll spoil the surprise!

Nick Drew said...

come back, come back, there is nothing to be afraid of ... [@ 7 mins 30]


The Khasi ... Peter Mandelson
The Fakir ... Gordon Brown
Capt Keene ... Ed Miliband
Stinghi ... Alistair Darling
Brother Belcher ... John Prescott
Major Shorthouse ... Hazel Blears
Private Widdle ... David Miliband