Friday, 23 April 2010
UK Q1 GDP growth at 0.2%: Treasury fail
Today's figures for GDP growth are exactly in line with what most independent economists expected.
However, they are far behind what the Government was forecasting. Even the BBC is forced to the old chimera of claiming that the figures will be revised upwards - who is to say they won't come downwards? (Historically the revisions work out about 50-50).
What this shows is how craven the Treasury is tot he wishes of the discredited Labour Party. Clearly the advice for the Budget was fudged to help the Government. This is not the role of the independent Civil Service.
With 0.2% growth there is little chance in the rest of the year of the GDP figures for growth hitting the Treasury predictions - this means more spending on social welfare and lower tax receipts - a double whammy to the budget and national deficits. Remember too the comparatives for this Quarter are still with the dreadful situation of this time last year.
After firing the mandarins it does confirm that a new Government is going to have to announce an emergency budget where they re-work the figures to paint a picture more akin to the truth - and that will be painful for the X-Factor Election voters.
UPDATE: Perfect Darling response to this post. We are all fine and everything is ok, at least our statistics are not dodgy like Greece...no really, he said this!