Friday, 18 March 2011

Libya Intervention - Realpolitik on the hoof

So we go to war with Qaddafi at last and the markets react by going up half a percent. Unsurprisingly Oil has jumped up too to $103 per barrell for WTI.

As there has been no action yet against Qaffadi I have come to the conclusion that the yanks are positioned to do it right with their carriers and the planes are no in place yet in Cyprus or Sicily to take any action. Perhaps this suggests the UN Resolution rather took NATO by surprise?

Anyhow, Qaddafi is going to be very keen to get this war over quickly and will send his troops into Benghazi very quickly now. So that is not going to end well for the people there. Perhaps that won't bother they yanks as there angle on the population of Benghazi is skewed by this - for them indeed Qaddafi maybe doing them justice?

It is very complicated which inevitably means it will last a long time and not work out very well. In addition, how do the Saudi's/Bahraini's  feel now that the US has given backing to overthrowing Middle Eastern Dictatorships who attack their own protesters?


Anonymous said...

well, if one were cynical one could imagine that the US waited until the result was all but inevitable before deciding that "tut tut, it just will not do". Keeps allies and the ME sweet at nearly no cost to their material or political capital...

Nick Drew said...

the Israelis have long maintained the strategic posture of: don't mess with us, we're actually willing to press the button - and who's to say that hasn't worked for them

Qaffadi is taking this to a whole new level: don't mess with me, I'm bonkers and you know it

high stakes, Colonel Q, you might not want to push that logic all the way

Steven_L said...

Why can't Egypt, with her 200+ F-16's enforce it?

I want the French to drop the bombs, just to add indignity to injury.

dossier's ghost said...

Something I've read a few times already. Our planes can't reach Benghazi, let alone Tripoli. We need a carrier. 2600 nm from Cyprus to Tripoli.

Typhoon Air-air superiority range -100nm {with 3-hr CAP}

That doesn't mean they can't reach. we do have tankers. the MOD did remember to include air-to-air refueling. And its a NATO operation. So bases in Sicily would be more appropriate. Plus, could base from Egypt if the Arab league are on board.

Perhaps a post for the most inaccurate reporting and speculation.

SumoKing said...

dossier's ghost

the typhoon programme is a shambles, I know we have all of 8 pilots trained to ground attack but how many have we got trained to air to air refuel?

this is going to be a french - american adventure (if it goes ahead) with an utter humilitation to the RN suffering from another tory "we'll buy anything that flies even that hunk of crap transport the french are building and we're pretty sure an island nation dependant on trade doesn't really need a navy"

Mark Wadsworth said...

A couple of hours agao the BBC said that Gaddafi had declared a ceasefire, which would be a storming result for all concerned.