Sunday 21 August 2011

The week ahead?

What a week we have to come. Gaddafi is not looking like he is going to last much longer in Libya. With him gone that will produce some downward pressure on oil prices and support to world markets. However, the Sovereign debt crisis is going to play put even more.

The markets are now trying to seek out the banks who are over-exposed to the European Sovereign debt and who may not be able to last another crisis. Worryingly, some of these are big names such as Soc Gen, Unicredit and Deutsche Bank. Without resolution things are going to stay very choppy at least, with potential crashes in the Market possible at any time they remain open.

Plenty to keep us all busy!


Timbo614 said...

The first European bank run might keep us all busy? With most bank shares down circa 60-80% over the past 5 years someone might start a panic!

Gaddafi - well 2% which mainly goes to Italy is not going to make a lot of difference surely... be good to see him gone and the country & people on the way to their future though.

Markets - another similar general decline may also spark point 1.

Of course the market will probably open up 1% then realise its mistake :(

The bane of living in interesting times is that we truly don't know what will come next.

fingers crossed :)

Anonymous said...

According to this Gaddafi could enact a scorched earth policy which would send oil prices in the opposite direction to the one you expect.

CityUnslicker said...

anon - a classic zero hedge bad call. I am not really a fan of zero hedge. despite publishing some great stuff and being right about macroevents in general, the levels of daily mail scare stories are off putting.

Budgie said...

“No one” saw the 2007/08 crash; now “every one” sees the next crash. Is it just me or are both examples of the human tendency to think that everything will carry on as before?

The biggest problem in the western economies is not that they are crashed out, but that the establishments of the USA, EU and UK are corrupt: they lie, cheat, loot. And that includes Cameron, Obama, Sarkozy, Merkel et al.

(A comment I previously made on Guido)

Jan said...

Yes and then they wonder why the riots occurred Budgie. Hypocrisy is our biggest problem in society. There's one law for the elite and another for the masses.