Wednesday 7 September 2011

Obama. The one term President?

The First post has a story about how Obama is almost certainly going to be a one term President. It then has some polling data that doesn't show that at all.
MSNBC have a more accurate headline, Obama at all time low.

And they give a pretty succinct explanation of why.

After the bruising debt-ceiling fight — as well as Standard & Poor's subsequent downgrade of the nation's credit rating — Obama's job approval rating has sunk to a low of 44 percent, a 3-point drop since July. His handling of the economy stands at a low of 37 percent. And only 19 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, the lowest mark for this president.

Capitalists@Work pointed out back in July 2010 and Nov 2010 that Obama was running himself into cul-de-sacs by fighting too many battles against very powerful, entrenched and self interested oppositions. He still continues to do so. The budget crisis, just another example. And that really hurt America. And the downgrade from S&P personally hurt Obama.

When the IMF bailed out the Wilson government it was for quite small beer. And the reasons for the bailout were caused by unforseen shocks and changes to the world. And hopeless government management of course, but we'd always had that.
What it did do is make the government look incompetent. And that's what the downgrade did to the Democrats. "They don't know what they're doing."

But the polls actually show a weariness with politicians in general. A whopping 82 percent now disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

I stand by my view that the US & the UK { unsupported last year by the readers comments to this blog} that its only the economy that will really matter. Deal with the economy, almost to the exclusion of anything else. Forget schools and healthcare and foreign wars and political fighting and just sort the economy. Or there won't be another term.
For the $ spent {and estimates range from $7 - 11 trillion dollars} unemployment should have moved more than 0.2% downwards since President Obama took office.
Voters want jobs. Jobs and security of employment.

Even the most hopeless and dislikeable of Labour governments, Brown's last two years, managed to do that. Obama's popularity has tumbled to just 42%. This is a deep plunge for someone who was lauded almost as a God when taking office.
Yet his persona, his likeability rating, is still 70%. A large proportion of Americans agree with at least half of his policies. His opponents are nowhere near ready to challenge him. He must surely still hold the centre ground as the GOP moves ever rightwards. So the chances for a second term must still be very positive, even though he is losing key swing states,like Florida. There is still time to pull them back.

Its the economy stoopid!

And you already knew that before you took the job.


Budgie said...

People told me Bush jnr was a moron, so I specifically watched one of his speeches. He was witty, urbane and self deprecating. Quite the opposite of what other people said.

People told me Obama was wonderful, the saviour of America. I watched one of his speeches. He was not just dreadful but frightening. He said almost nothing of substance, but infected the audience emotionally. He appeared to have the same mesmerising effect as Hitler.

At best he is an American Blair. At worst he simply doesn't understand that the borrowing has to stop.

andrew said...

If the opposition is Michelle Bachman, Obama has a job for life.

If Rick Perry, who will spend a lot of time telling the US how well the Texas economy is doing, he will be a one-termer.

Given the short timescale (2012), he cannot make a difference on the economy either way.

Old BE said...

BQ I agree more with you that in the US it is more about the economy than schools*, Americans seem less worried about education than we are now after fifty years of comprehensive crappery.

Unfortunately Obama made the mistake that so many left-wingers make of thinking that everything can be solved by pumping demand up a bit. He thought that a massive splurge would spur the economy into action. He should have been looking at the supply side as well. He could have done a Reagan and started the hard work of getting America back on its feet. But he hasn't.

It is now far too late to get a recovery going before the election. And surely nobody will believe him if he now starts to talk about deeper reform, any more than we believed anything Brown said which contradicted what he had spent all his time in office doing.

* I personally don't think you have to choose, the PM and Chancellor can look at the economy, Michael Gove can sort the schools

CityUnslicker said...

The truth is that the US and Uk are saddled with too much dent in the from of Zombie banks and knackered Governments to get the economy going again. there was a point in the recession when the debts shoul dhave been written off - but they haven't been which means only time and inflation will do the job and it will take a decade without further shocks. bad news for all incumbent Governments.

Bill Quango MP said...

Budgie. I have to admit that I thought George Jr was an idiot. And that I thought Obama was going to be a good thing for America, a sort of Lincoln approach to the Republicans. "You collapsed this country-but together-we can rebuild- yes-we- can."
I'll concede on the second one, but George W's political cabal and foreign wars did America in.

Andrew. Bachmann is going nowhere.Looks like perry or Romney.
And they are appealing to the wide right.
- Social security is a ponzi scheme!
& social security is a failure!

Bit difficult to win an election during a deep recession with that kind of talk. And Obama IS a Blair. He talks a very good game. He can do sincere and apology and hope. I would be very surprised if he loses, even though he really does deserve to.

Bill Quango MP said...

BE: American schools suffer exactly the same as ours. After all, we copied their model and their progressive ideas. It is on the agenda. But in America you're expected to sort your life out and value your education or you know you'll never get anything but the hottest and nosiest of jobs.
By 'the economy' I agree its too late. But by making it THE message he can build confidence. Only two years ago USA had very positive numbers on manufacturing, retail, services. Only housing and construction languished.
Obama is making that his final fixit strategy. IF the money is poured into projects that can show a return on just the employment numbers, then he can claim credit.
The plan is a sort of 'New Deal' Dam building, road mending,landscaping, heritage restoring program.
The original New deal had very mixed results and its actual impact and worth is debated even today. What's certain is that it was frighteningly expensive.
But that's what the government is for.
Paying today for tomorrow. your very good point about schools etc.
It isn't as simple as Gove does X, Fox does y, huhne does Z. Its all government.
just look at all the issues that have arisen that have damaged the coalition. Health reforms sucked up the time, because if they weren't amended, it was a possible revolt of MPs. Social care will be the same. Already the rent cap is in difficulty.
Vested interests have bashed the Gov from day 1.
Just yesterday it was Save the children. poor people need childcare.
nursery provision , not on any government radar. And it was all day news and talking heads.

So, Dave, don't do so much. Get a focus so there's no weekly U-turn on forests or high speed rail or whatever the latest cock-up that can't be dealt with quickly is.

And also,pick battles where the public is onside. health, as Obama found, is really, really hard. Poor hardworkingangelsofmercywaitinglistslowestsince1997 just can't be attacked. yet many,many parents know that their secondary schools are poor.
In my own area the 5 primary schools are in the top 10% of the tables. Those same kids then go to the big school and come out as delinquents.
That is the fault of the school.

So I for one, am fully behind Gove and hope if this coalition achieves anything, its his reforms.

Bill Quango MP said...

CU- True.
Are governments just looking around for a Regan/Thatcher figure that they are going to copy?

{except the French, obviously.}

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

Dealing with the economy being most important.

It may win votes but on its own it won't rescue the West.

We need to restore manners, ethics and decency in our people above all else. A sense of what is right and wrong and clearly delineated and - if necessary - enforced standards of behaviour which would befit the village green (or the US equivalent.)

Those qualities are a country's greatest strength and with them it can surmount any hardship.

It is no coincidence that our richest epoch has heralded our most dramatic cultural and intellectual decline.

Besides - the votership have done nothing to show that they deserve an economic resurgence, particularly in finding cuts unacceptable nor essential.

Electro-Kevin said...

Why not run another compo (as well as Question Time) on who can create the best pun from the news. Like Sun headlines.

My post today was Moral Cowell-dice. (Apropos Hageman discussed earlier)

I'm sure your visitors could come up with some real corkers.

Anonymous said...

Joke Alert....(yes a non PC joke, but bolloxs )
President Obama is at the pearly gates and St.Peter says why should you be admitted ?
"I was the first black American President."
Peter replies "when did that happen ?"
"about 2 minutes ago"

But seriously... the timing was terrible, (the Presidency not the joke) he inherited a pile of toxic debt and unemployment. The sad thing is we will remember Bush, Clinton and Dubyer Bush, and err the black guy, Osama ??

BlackRaven said...

I do a lot of business in the states, there has been a real change in the last three months in attitude.

there is near almost universal criticism of his lack of leadership, not him personally. i've heard it often now from people that were solid supporters 6months ago.

his focus has been all over the place as you say, its a bit late now however to try to fix the economy given that it was precisely this issue that won him the election.

roym said...

Is budgie for real?! Do me a favour, that cretin has zero legacy worth mentioning bar tens of thousands of dead iraqis

Why no mention on this blog about GWBs failed economic policy? Bruin gets slammed for lunacy, yet BO is blamed for the previous mess? (wars and economy)

Tbh I couldn't give two hoots about US intractable politics, but BQ, why does Obama deserve to lose?

Bill Quango MP said...

Anon: You are right. If I had to choose Bush or Obama it would be Obama every time. he didn't make the mess.

Black raven: His support is falling away. Same thing happened to George Bush snr, who should have won a landslide.
He must get to grips. He is the executive leader with a whole host of executive powers. Use them Mr president.

Roym: Of course BO isn't to blame for the mess. To make it clear, it was the Republicans.
But Obama is in charge now. Like dave is. And his task is to make things better, not worse. And so far all he's achieved is to make the debt far, far bigger.
WSJ has some figures that show that each stimulus job created has cost $238,000!!
Any idiot could see that a waiter shouldn't earn a 1/4 million dollars. A restaurant could have had its staff paid directly by the government and that would only cost $30,000 / person? Heck, pay them double.
Its this sort of failure that upsets me. he is doing the wrong things and doing them badly. And that's what Bush jr did.Only no one expected much from bush junior. but everyone expected better form Obama.

When I say deserve to lose, I only mean that he had every advantage when he came in. {except a really lousy economy, obviously~}Support. A discredited opposition. Hope for the future, faith, people prepared to do what it takes. A willingness to get out of stupid wars and so on. Yet he faffed about with healthcare and committed spending on a Brownian scale in the same splash it on all over way. The results haven't been good.
Obama just had to get things heading in a better direction. That would be enough. Just be better than Bush. yet he's struggling on even that simple level.
Cameron has the same problem. he just has to be better than Brown.
Not as easy as it looks, but he's just about managing it.

Tonight Obama has given a good speech. But he is so very Blair, as I said earlier. He delivers better promises than results.
He gives a better personal performances than an economic performance.
He's pledged a load more money he doesn't have to do things that might not be able to be done. This is his last chance to deliver something from that speech.

I have no faith in the Republican's at all. But I don't have much more in Obama.

BlackRaven said...

His speech was utterly desperate.

He clearly doesn't understand capital formation and job creation at all, not a surprise as he's never worked in the real world.

For a jobs speech he spent a lot of time talking about taxes, "fair shares" and "pass the bill".

It was truly awful, and the fact that it has taken him until now to realize that the economy is the priority is woeful judgement.

Bill Quango MP said...

Speech was ok in presentation. bit airy fairey in some content.
It was truly awful, and the fact that it has taken him until now to realize that the economy is the priority is woeful judgement.

Very true.
But I'm still pretty sure he's going to win the presidency again.