Monday, 24 October 2011

Now is not the time for eurosceptics to grandstand



Here are Capitalists@Work we have a very jaundiced view of the role of the EU. A massive bureaucracy set up for the benefit of the French with a large dollop of graft; layered onto an entirely undemocratic system with a pretend Parliament that costs another fortune. All in all, it is a very expensive way to keep a few hundred eurocrats in clover.

So, in normal times, the move today to go for an in/out referendum vote would be welcomed. However as we all know in life, timing is everything.

Today, a very stressed MerKozy is working to find an answer to the Eurozone Sovereign Debt crisis. This is a very messy and very difficult situation. Failure would be disastrous for the UK and the world, with a guaranteed second great recession baked in for us.

So, whatever our long-term concerns, now is not a great time for political grandstanding. There Finns and Slovaks have not made friends with their politicking in recent time. Neither is Cameron judging by Sarkozy telling him to shut up over the weekend.

A good strategist times his battles well, this is a very poor time to choose, after all we have had over 30 years to decide this and to do so now, at this critical juncture, would cause huge disruption to the markets and the economic environment.

Yes, the Euro will fail in the next few years and there will be dire consequences, yes the UK will have to stump up a load of money (luckily, we seem to be just printing it these days so no harm done, eh?) and there will come a point at which membership of EU should be debated and our relationship analysed. But not in the eye of the storm, bad judgement now could cost the UK a lost decade, why take the risk over something that will take years to negotiate in any event?

24 comments:

Elby the Beserk said...

Don't you worry your pretty little head. Nothing will come of this debate, except the kick back of even great public loathing and distrust of the political classes.

Jer said...

It's nothing to do with the Eurosceptics.

David Cameron has managed to upset both the majority of his own voters, and the Eupropeans, and his own MP's, and undermine his attempt to reconnect with the public via the epetions site.

The vote was never going to pass anyway, and wouldn't be binding if it did, all he has done is demonstrate massive ineptitude and poor judgement. Truly he is the heir to Brown.

Sean said...

The longer you leave it the worse it will be, its the very reason there is a storm at the moment because the eurocraps forgot to take the people with them. They are flapping about like a duckling in a herons beck because they dont have the legitimacy required to solve the problem, or at least have some sort of answer.

As for Dave talk about have a good hand and play it badly WTF! let them get rid of some hot air.

Pesonally I think it will be a case of the EU leaving us not the other way around.

Bill Quango MP said...

I don't really understand DC. Why whip us MPs?
Its not as if it matters. Its only a debate about a future debate about maybe doing something or not.

What ever the outcome it could be good for Cameron. If the Eurosceptic contingent didn't get as much support as required, they would be have to be silent for quite a while. Rather like the Yes2AV lobby.

And the arguments that CU puts here can be equally well made by the Euro lobby and the Treasury Team.

Admittedly the usual Sir Humphrey calming line on Europe "now is not the right time..in the fullness of time..at the appropriate juncture.." has worn very thin for some UK citizens.

But If there was large support for a renegotiation, or an Out vote Cameron can say to Sarkozy "Look what's happening. If you want UK support, I'll need some very kind words and some decent future promises.,,A summit in 2016?"

Either way, Cameron is a winner.

Yet somehow he's managed to turn a fairly routine commons encounter into a damaging political action.

He's lucky that the partners & opposition have also joined in, so getting him off the hook. But it does seem an unnecessary fix to have gotten into.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

It doesn't really get him off the hook. It is proof positive that "Cast Iron Dave" is a lying duplicitous tosser... as, it appears, is my local Tory MP. So they can kiss goodbye to my vote.

The whole premise of this post is balls. This is the perfect time to re-negotiate. They're on the ropes - we should be gently squeezing Brussels by the balls, vetoing everything until we get what we want. The EU as currently consituted is about as useful as the League of Nations. We should get the hell out.

BrianSJ said...

BQ and Mr Weetabix have the right of it. Also, the post reads like the greater depression is optional. Sorry, matey, but it ain't. The interview with Ray Dalio is well worth reading at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ray-dalio-there-are-no-more-tools-tool-kit-complete-charlie-rose-transcript-head-worlds-biggest

Blue Eyes said...

The whole situation is stupid and unnecessary. DC's position should always have been, since the ratification of Lisbon, that when the next re-org happens he will use a promised referendum as a negotiating tool to strengthen his hand at the table.

If he had been upfront from the start the EU "nutters" would have much less support because moderate sensible people would be on DC's side.

DC has turned this discussion from being one between nutters and moderates into democracy v diktat.

DC should use the debate as an opportunity to win the argument not to stamp his authority. A win in Parliament will be Pyrrhic if so many of his own party rebel that he has to rely on Labour votes.

This is a mess of his own making, as is the put down from Merkozy.

David Morris said...

Ahem

Not too familiar with this term Eurosceptic

Shurely EuroRealist is now (and for some time past) the more apt term.

Just sayin'

Kind regards

James Higham said...

On the contrary, it's an excellent time, leading up to the EU financial deal. 65 rebels, 20 abstentions will be a flash in the pan but the great gain will be the double whammy of the public finally seeing Cameron at work and how the EU view us [the Sarko spat].

This is why the question had to be put today. Of course it is not actually the time for a referendum, not because of the referendum itself but because the weasel Cameron is poised to turn it into a "repatriation of powers from within" choice and the media will put the lie that the public is for that, which they patently are not, on previous poll results.

But as people tend to go with majority opinions, that's how it will come across. In a nutshell, with Cameron poised, pen in hand, to write the question, of course a referendum cannot be currently held and that's why the vote was necessary today - to rid us of Cameron and Europhiles in the party.

And yes - a new Conservative Party is needed altogether and that can only happen with many incidents of the kind which will take place this evening.

Mr Ecks said...

And "Merkozy" (Jesus Wept)can't and isn't going to sort it out and the Greater Depression will be upon us soon.

It'll kill the EU tho' so it is far from all bad.

CityUnslicker said...

I agree re the concept of push them while on the ropes, but really, this week they have enough on their plates and it will ruin our reputation.

As the comments say though, DC has done terrible job over this non-event. He has managed to upset the Europeans and his own eurosecptics without acheiving anything - quite a feat.

DC is good as PM in many areas, I fear Europe is one of his weak spots, realpolitick on Europe has ceased to wash with the population so a new strategy is needed; clearly, there is not one.

The time to push on this is next year, a deal is done but we are asked for more money and have a negotiating position. At the moment we are haranguing stressed people for no reason - it is rather like interfering in another's marital scraps - pointless and unrewarding in the extreme.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

ruin our reputation?

They have no respect for us as it is. Why should they? We have folded our cards in every negotiation since 1973. It's time we grew a pair.

Electro-Kevin said...

Now is precisely the time to kick up. The EU is a major cause of the problem.

Scare mongering by Europhiles as they did in the '70s. Their usual tactic when their idiotic project is challenged.

Did you not read John Redwood today ?

Not doing anything will result in the issue being kicked into the long grass until 2015 by which time the EU ratchet will be ever tighter.

Electro-Kevin said...

BQ - Why do you MPs need a whipping ?

You don't need it. You get it because you like it.

Budgie said...

BE - would you care to define 'EU "nutters"'? Are they people who simply want to leave the EU?

Given what "DC" has done (and not done) over the past 18 months, how can you have a shred of respect left for him?

Electro-Kevin said...

Blue - Between nutters and moderates ?

I disagree. Everyone has a legitimate point to make.

What seems 'nutty' to me is the three-line whip and the fact that sceptic MPs must broadcast their views anonymously as they did on TV this weekend.

It's quite clear who the real fanatics are. They are totally shit scared of free speech and cast aspertions over the mentality of people who happen to disagree with them.

That's a sinister and unpleasant quality to have IMHO.

Budgie said...

CU said: "DC is good as PM in many areas ..."

Many areas? Like what?

EU powers repatriation? - No
Deficit reduction? - No
Reducing corporatism? - No
Reducing petty regulation? - No
Keeping his word? - No
Repealing Labour's surveillance state? - No
Reducing centralisation? - No
Sell off the BBC? - No
Close DfID? - No
Lying about energy costs? - Yes
Giving more powers to the EU? - Yes
Increasing taxation? - Yes

I accept that there have been minor gains in a few areas (like schools and local government), but DC's record is not "good" by any stretch of the imagination.

Electro-Kevin said...

Just seen some silly old bint in BBC news singing Rule Britannia.

I am fed up with John Bull characters being the face of what I stand for.

They do our cause a great disservice. They are for us what berret wearing Trotskys are for the left wing.

Blue Eyes said...

Budgie, EK: wanting to leave the EU immediately is not nuts at all. It's a perfectly logical and defensible opinion to hold. And I don't go around calling people I disagree with "nutters", either.

"Nutters" are those who put single positions above all other consideration. The people who are pushing for a referendum now are failing to see the bigger picture: there is a very good chance that Britain would vote to stay in!

Why raise it now? I just don't get it. There are bigger fishes to fry.

Yes the EU is a large part of the financial crisis but dismantling the Euro and the EU today would cause utter chaos.

I suppose the people I am calling nuts are those who call for revolution when evolution is possible.

Budgie said...

BE, the current euro crisis is not transient. Can kicking (bailouts) won't work long term. So there are only two ways out:
1. dismantle the euro in a structured and responsible manner; or
2. create full fiscal (which probably means political) union.

There seems no good reason why one of these should not be done now. But the EU elites will not choose 1.

The problem is this: DC is now a proven europhile. What is going to be his automatic reaction when the EU faces him with the choice of: a) the UK being chucked out of the EU; or b) the UK joining the new fiscal euro union?

We have a pretty good idea what he will choose, on past performance. This will polarise the country.

Anonymous said...

I hear that De la Rue are busy printing 'New Drachmas' ready for Greece being booted out the Euro zone over the Xmas holiday. The elite fools are now just checking what European banks need to be propped up with printed money to try and firewall the default.

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

BE - Clearly there needs to be a measured retreat from the EU as a political entity (not as a market or Continent) rather than an In/Out debate.

I'd rather be Out but I can see that withdrawal by degrees is probably the more tactical move.

The Federalists would scare monger to such a degree that we'd all become in-continent.

Jan said...

Meanwhile.....the Kinnocks continue to rake it in quietly at our expense.....