Thinking back to 2008-9, two debates raged. A V-shaped recovery, or a W ? (or a U or an L ...) Inflation or deflation ?
And now we know. It's I for sure, and W (at best) - even if some persuaded themselves the first leg was a V.
I was never 100% certain about I/D: inflation was my first instinct (hence loading up with max NS&I tax-free index-linked); but never having studied economics I had no confident counter against the many who seemed to have strong arguments for D. Perhaps it would have been D had the authorities not been so smart as to helicopter in all that dosh.
But the V was never on, that much was clear.
Interestingly, oil is still comfortably in 3 figures. Can this last ? Everything hinges on China and India: more on this when time permits.