Monday, 2 January 2012

More 2012 Predictions: ND

Fared OK-ish with last year's efforts:

- gold up in all currencies: check (14% in GBP)
- oil in 3 digits & staying there: check (I meant Brent, natch)
- bad UK riots: check, though there was a detail you could twit me on
- brutal Cabinet reshuffle: fail
- England to win 6 Nations (check) & reach RWC final (fail)

So I might claim 70%. If I was bragging. Which I'm not.

The family-&-friends prognostication panel has convened again: last year they scored on property prices, the AV referendum and England qualifying for Euro'12 (sic), but failed on Putin, the end of the coalition, and of Mrs T. This year they reckon a dust-up with Argentina; a Royal Baby; Paul Dacre to be interviewed by the rozzers (like that one); UK unemployment up every single month; and Arsene Wenger to leave Highbury. We shall see.

Anyhow - *clears throat* -
I (and many others) reckon 2012 will be a discontinuity. Gold (physical) will march on, of course, with the distinct possibility of the collapse of the paper market along the way. However, that's not interesting any more. So here are my fateful five:

1. we will become dramatically aware how (over)reliant we have become on the interweb and all things digital - and not in a good way

2. there will be a vast surge in UK crimes against property (often inevitably involving violence), including some really nasty burglaries on folk keeping too much under the mattress

3. there will be some significant curtailments of freedom of speech

4. the Olympics will see a series of mighty scandals of several kinds, not least of which will be the bill: and the efforts of politicians to distance themselves from said outrages will have wider ramifications

5. an experimental England to win the 6 Nations (again)

& jolly good luck to all our readers ...



Anonymous said...

Nick don't kow if you have seen it on the Beeb site but David Cameron: UK will get up to strength in 2012, is call me Dave just trying to talk the economy up, folks are not daft they know how the economy affects them and their personal finances, if the vast majority do not feel as if things are easing they will be showing Dave their bow string pulling fingersat election time.

Anonymous said...

I predict a riot!

Nick Drew said...

keep up, anon@6:03, that was last year !

anon@5:17 - I'm guessing that Dave & the Boy Osborne reckoned 5 years would be comfortably sufficient time for a turnaround; & they may still be sanguine about 40 months - Brown nearly pulled it off in less time than that ...

they could still be wrong about that, of course

Admin said...
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Steven_L said...

I did my 5 under yours last year ND, they were:

1) TUC March demo gets over 250k of usual suspects out, but strikes are a flop.

2) Sterling continues it's decline against aussie dollar ending year at 1.30 or less.

3) Government U turn on housing benefit as tory MP's offices fill up with irate BTL landlords.

4) Euro/corporate debt shocks don't move markets much as central banks get on top of things quick and hit the liquidity pedal. FTSE 7,000 in 2011.

5) Silver hits $50.

I'm taking a point for 1 and 5, OK they probably had a few more than 250k and silver only made $49-something, but not a bad call from way under $30!.

I'm still infuriated with myself for not cashing in on #5! DOH!

Nick Drew said...

yes, a credits where they are due

20-20 hindsight is a wonderful thing, eh ?

and silver is quite a story ...