Wednesday 2 January 2013

2012 Predictions Round Up

So having been 0 for 5 in 2011 I have improved only a little with 2012, getting 2 of of 5 (although scoring China for a recession they have since spent their way out of with money printing is a generous call),

Perhaps this years 3 will see me in a better place for next year (although I should add my usual UK based macro ones - interest rates won't rise or if they do only by a quarter of one percent, inflation will stay at 2-3%  and the UK growth will come in at 1.2% overall with one quarter of negative growth in Q1)

But in the comments from last year, praise should go to Budgie! Not only did he make 10 predictions but they were all correct...10 out of 10! It's good going as there were some tough calls but overall 2012 proved to be a steady as she goes year in terms of politics and economics with fewer of the big events which had so marked the 2007-2011 period.

Still it could be worse, I could be Nick Drew - who here predicted the end of the Internet in 2012, a courageous call one might say, along with sundry other things that have not really happened, albeit civil liberties are still being rapidly eroded away without anyone noticing (this is of course because the young have already given up liberty by using facebook etc to tell everyone about even their bowel movements, so that the concept of what is free is now very confused)

Of course Bill Quango had a go to and he fared a little better than Nick, with his call of a recession for most of the year and a torrid time for high street retail spot on, plus a good Olympics and wins for Boris and Obama.

It still probably leaves me as champion of the 3 of us, however, let's face it, Budgie is the one in the know having been bang on in 2011 and 2012 - his predictions for 2013 again...sadly we are yet to see them perhaps the Mayans have hired him to work on their new prophecies, a lucrative little number that...


Electro-Kevin said...

I'm proud to say that I've singled out Budgie for praise on several occaisions.

What next, Budgie ?

(And just who the hell are you ???)

Blue Eyes said...

Gosh Nick really was very negative wasn't he?!

A surge in brutal home invasions and the end of free speech?! ND [not] for PM!

DtP said...

10 out of 10. Gadzooks and Sacre Bleur with perhaps the added frisson of a Zut Alors chucked in for good measure. Bravo!

Anonymous said...

CU I know it's really just a guessing game, but the way things seem to be going our dear leaders do not really know what will happen, if they do they don't seem able to predict (or not letting on about) what is likely to happen, they seem to come out with ideas but like a lot of governments, they do not do it throughly, hence the sudden about turns which leaves a lot of people scratching their heads. Congratulations to Budgie, I wonder if he also does OK at the races, casinoes, stock market.

James Higham said...

Of course Bill Quango had a go to and he fared a little better than Nick, with his call of a recession for most of the year

Not exactly a difficult one, lads.

DtP said...

Is Mr CityUnslicker hiding under a bushell? We should be told:

Bill Quango MP said...

JH: Are you suggesting a prediction of the blindingly obvious?

Then you won't appreciate my remarkably fiscal cliff doom/market recovery/can kick prediction of a few posts down. That has already proved 100% accurate.

Budgie said...

Thank you CU, and EK, for those kind words. It's mostly luck I am afraid, otherwise I would be much richer than I am now.

What we do know, though, is that Cameron is vapid, lazy, etc, and that the EU elite will do anything to ensure the survival of the euro. The playing out of those characteristics is fairly obvious.

So here's my pick for 2013 (quite similar to 2012 actually):

1. The eurozone will begin the process of turning itself into a stand alone state with new treaties by-passing the EU; effectively the EU will become a moribund shell. Nobrains Cameron will be left floundering.

2. The new EZ will be seen to be more sound financially than the UK, and even on a par with the USA. The euro will, of course, survive.

3. The latin part of the EZ will be still be in financial trouble - recession and even depression in some states. There will be job riots and business (inc bank) collapses, mergers and nationalisations.

4. Cameron will continue to be vapid, dim, ineffectual and outmanoeuvred by the EZ elites. He will continue to waste money on crackpot wheezes including DfID, CAGW and greenery, failing to cut back the deficit sufficiently. The UK will flirt with recession. Consequently we may still end up, cap in hand, applying to join the EZ (euro) within 5 years.

5. UK inflation about 5%; FTSE will rise to around 7000, but fall dramatically in the autumn below 5000; national house prices level but London up; bank rate to stay low unless UK downgraded (quite likely).

6. Oil, gold and commodities will be very volatile, but relatively high
priced, because of the political uncertainties.

7. BRICs will continue to grow but more slowly; China will continue its
Africa expansion, and purchases of Western companies.

8. Obama will think his second term makes him eenveencibool, and do something monumentally stupid.

9. Wars will continue mostly to be fought in cyber space and with drones, thereby largely being ignored by the msm.

10. The "Arab spring" will continue to result in repressive Islamist states.

Electro-Kevin said...

Budgie: I predicted the crash but - in preparation for it - went totally the opposite way to that which I ought to have done.

I retrenched and off-loaded debt ... and, unfortunately, a lot of equity and earnings as a result.

I was completely right on immigration so at least - because of my action - my kids don't come home speaking like Ali G as they would have done by now.

Ryan said...

"the young have already given up liberty by using facebook etc to tell everyone about even their bowel movements"

Girls only surely? My sons have no interest in such things (not even to monitor the thoughts of girls).

I am wondering if girls are entering a post-Bridget Jones generation where they simply concentrate on being lovely and nice and try to avoid real thinking at all, rather in the manner of Victorian ladies. Perhaps they will stop voting, thinking it impossible to choose between "a nasty man and another nasty man" and feminism will have come full circle. It is the rise of the Holly Willyboobies. Probably not a bad thing all round though.

Ryan said...

Here are my predictions for 2013:-

1] Official EZ growth will be about 1%, but the figures will be questioned. Eurostat will begin to lose credibility.

2] EZ unemployment will rise significantly. Unemployment in Spain will rise above 30%. There will be very significant social unrest as a result and

3] UK growth will be 0%

4] UK unemployment will continue to fall, but nobody will understand why. It will be the only EU economy with a falling unemployment rate.

5] Chinese growth will officially be 7.5%, but the FT will continue to question the validity of the figures, and of the value of GDP in monitoring national economic performance in general.

6] There will be rioting in China due to rising unemployment, rising prices and low wages.

8] The BofE will buy a further £200bn of government debt

9] The price of gold will fall slightly

10] The UK deficit will fall significantly for the first time, above government expectations. It will still be very high, however.