Thursday, 18 April 2013

Another "Hope" fizzle



- Growth predictions falling
- Unemployment up
- Businesses still closing
- Banks still full of bad loans
- Public sector wages going up at 3% and Prviate Sector at 1%
- Misssing deficit reduction targets
- Commodity prices falling
- Baltic Dry index collpasing again


Every year since 2011 we have now seen the same pattern, people come back to their desks across the world after the New Year and think "this time, its different." Every year we ge to March/April and nothing has changed, the hope dies and the markets go on a big down turn. We all end up depressed again. markets wise the old "Sell in May" meme is going to do well this year again too.

Clearly in the UK spcifically the deleverage of private debts has not happened fast enough to allow any new growth. The control of the public sector debt from completely spiralling out of control, if not actually reducing at all, has meant a lethargic austerity.

We will see this pattern again next year too perhaps - maybe in 2015 things will improve.

It's not very fun though, is it?

26 comments:

hovis said...

We're running to stand still ...being a pessimist at heart I think we are like Wile-E-Coyote .. having fallen off the cliff we're snagged on the branch ...until it snaps ... I just hope I am wrong

Ryan said...

Well there is no miracle cure for a debt-fuelled "boom". It took us 7 years of taking our eyes of the ball and being told debt didn't matter before the awful truth dawned. I'm guessing it will take at least 15 years before we are out of it, just as it did last time. As I said before, things could (perhaps should?) be much worse. The Volker cure used during the Reagan years pushed central banks rates up to 21% - but unemployment rose dramatically as a result. Do you think the nation is ready for a return to the Thatcher years? It still took us a hell of a long time to get out of the rut we were in.

The questions is, once we are out of this situation is anyone going to put together a plan to stop it happening again, i.e. will we start listening to the Austrian School, or will politicians once again be beguiled by Keynsians that really only have something useful to say when we are in a depression?



Anonymous said...

These spam replies are really irritating. How are they getting past the Captcha?

Bill Quango MP said...

Good point anon.
How are they getting past the filter that stops genuine humans from posting?

April has been dreadful trading. really, really, 2010 dreadful.

DJK said...

Ten years of debt fuelled boom requires ten years of slump. Simples.

dearieme said...

So we are going to get continued recession combined with, what, 3%-5% RPI inflation?

What should I invest in, oh wise ones, to protect me from this?

measured said...

I can guess Bill but idiots go down in quality, not to bargain basement which might be a winner, but to cutting corners. People now want things to last.

I'd add sleeves to dresses rather than make us buy a cardigan and back to classic cuts. Men's cotton work shirts remain a bargain: still around £20 each. Maybe I'll start wearing a large one. ;-)

I phoned yesterday to have the car serviced. "We'll collect it tomorrow, Madam" #win

I am pleased I am not in the private education business.

Timbo614 said...

@BQ How are they getting past the filter that stops genuine humans from posting?

For example

and this

Timbo614 said...

@measured > People now want things to last.

Quite. I have always tried to adopt this attitude. Trouble is that it is expensive at the outset :(

But truly worth it in the end.

The only place I can't make it work is computer equipment - and I'm in the trade!

Bill Quango MP said...

Timbo- Well I never. Paying someone to decode the thing for you. Might sign up myself So I can post all over the place.

Measured: Have in some limited edition Van Huesen style, full twill or cotton Oxford shirts that RETAIL at £11.99.
Easily worth £40.

But even at £11.99 they are a slow seller. Possibly because the size/col range is weak. Possibly because everything is slow. No shoppers out there. No real footfall.

DJK said...

> Measured: Have in some limited edition Van Huesen style, full twill or cotton Oxford shirts that RETAIL at £11.99.
Easily worth £40.

Go on then, where can I buy one?

Anonymous said...

The private sector is subsidizing the public sector to keep it in work.

Civil Servants love big government. Big government and big departments mean bigger salaries and larger pension pots. None of which the private sector can afford.

We need a government, or a Chancellor at least that know what it is doing.

It is obvious that large parts of the state have to shrink, but no one is going to want to do it. They are all acting in their own self interest rather than the national interest.

Private industry and capital will just go abroad. The country will go into terminal decline along with the rest of the EU.

This is how Socialism works 21st Century style.

ivan said...

How are they getting past the filter?

Very simple, they are people paid to do so - so much pet thousand posts.

Some time ago there was an article about it in, I think, the Register, which showed that in a recession people would do anything to earn some money - at least anyone not living in the UK with access to all the handouts.

Blue Eyes said...

I am not really human and have no difficulty posting.

We are in an economic depression. I don't agree that a Keynesian splurge is in order, but we do need shock therapy to raise our economic expectations. Radical planning reform, maybe be a New university Town somewhere Oop North or something (perhaps on the site of one of these depressed mining villages or that shit bit of Newcastle where the "football fans" live)?

We've tried expanding the monetary base via the banks and.. yet... very little.

Maybe a small helicopter drop to every household to either pay back some of that debt overhang or to go shopping with? My new kitchen and bathroom are costing me about £10k so that would be about perfect.

Personally I am quite optimistic about The Future but it seems many are not. Time for a bit of activism?

Bill Quango MP said...

DJK - They are all out to our customers. SOR. Can't say who though. Just keep your eyes peeled for 'bargain US brand Men's button down."

PT said...

But house prices are UP UP UP! So stop worrying you fools.

Timbo614 said...

@BE I am not really human

Between trying to post QT answers first and making a takeover bid for the sponsorship, You're shaping up quite well. Keep at it.

andrew said...

age 11 i used to cut the backs of my fingers with my dads razor because i was convinced i was not human and blood would be green or blue. my mum caught me once and said that stubbly hair will start to grow there because i did that.
a year later i was horrified to find she was right.
thirty years later i realise that whilst it might be fun to be a zombie, ghoul, batman, superman (or my favourite, sorry the nearly man), no i am all too human.

Electro-Kevin said...

This is the real reason that George Osborn had a very public blub. Not for Mrs T.

He must be in a very bad place right now.

Diogenes Sinope said...

If you google
"You Tube The continued economic decline of the West" have a look at the PA Consulting series of videos on the subject and how he views the debt overhang. Personal view is that the last few years were the biggest bank heist ever. But back to the videos. Within it is the comment that the Asians are hoping to double their real wages in the next few years i.e. they want to go from $5/day to $10/day. How do you compete with that.

Simple says the guy from Brussels. Single market means single currency - and single level of wages. So you have the less productive southern europeans trying to pay themselves the same as the northerners. When it goes phut, the northern governments raid the savings of their pensioners to give it to the south.

And people wonder where the growth has gone?

Ryan said...

"Within it is the comment that the Asians are hoping to double their real wages in the next few years i.e. they want to go from $5/day to $10/day. How do you compete with that."

Strangely the Chinese are claiming their economy grew by 8% last year but my figures show a contraction of, wait for it, 20%! But then they are also running a trade deficit at the moment apparently! Not to mention the fact that it is now official that China has a debt crisis. I'm not quite sure what is going on there right now, but it doesn't sound good.

Jan said...

BE I would love a "helicopter drop". Even a tenner each would be nice and I'm all for bypassing the banks completely. Didn't George Bush give everyone a tax rebate at one time or did I dream it?

Blue Eyes said...

Jan, yep and the Aussies did it too. Something simple like a certain percentage of the tax you paid last year.

hovis said...

Ryan, Chinese figures have been lets say 'imaginative' for a while. No one will admit it though as it shows up the globalisation and offshoring to be the fraud it is.

assurance info said...

""""
- Growth predictions falling
- Unemployment up
- Businesses still closing
- Banks still full of bad loans
- Public sector wages going up at 3% and Prviate Sector at 1%
- Misssing deficit reduction targets
- Commodity prices falling
- Baltic Dry index collpasing again""""

Agence communication said...

"" Every year since 2011 we have now seen the same pattern, people come back to their desks across the world after the New Year and think "this time, its different." Every year we ge to March/April and nothing has changed, the hope dies and the markets go on a big down turn. We all end up depressed again. markets wise the old "Sell in May" meme is going to do well this year again too.
""