Tuesday, 22 July 2014

The Oil-Price Dog Still Isn't Barking

Catching up with the newspapers, one might be forgiven for thinking that Armageddon looms.  But then we turn to the market data for the traditional calibration and yes, the price of oil is gently falling: we are back to $108.  The combined agonies of Gaza, Iraq and Donetsk do not register on the curve.

European natural gas prices continue to fall even more markedly.  The premium over the the US price - for several years a very scary thing for European industry and economy as a whole - is down to under 50%, the lowest it's been for a long time.  (It was more than 200% as recently as last November.)  Even more striking, Far East LNG spot-prices are back down to pre-Fukushima levels.  Of course it's a hot spell in summer right now, but this goes beyond the usual seasonal dip. 

Putin shows every sign of being personally very uncomfortable, and low prices for his primary exports aren't going to improve his humour.  What on earth will he do next ?



dearieme said...

"What on earth will he do next ?"

Invade Poland?

Blue Eyes said...

On the topic of excellent Telegraph journalism, there is a blog post today arguing that the gap between US and European attitudes to Putin has been narrowed, but then goes on to cite various European leaders' lack of response to the Malaysian flight crisis.

Do they not proof-read?

Anonymous said...

And now Teresa "nasty party" May proposes to bait him over Litvinenko.

Bloody hell.

Anonymous said...

"I agree with Nick".

The politicians posture for the media - and the media prompt them to posture.

Meanwhile back in the real world the economics of making a turn brings a degree of focus back to the fundamentals - unless it is metals or currencies of course.

A reader said...

.... and NOT ONE of them states - or even so much as hints at - the real reason for all this - the Ashton/Barrosso/Rumpy expansionary eastern land grab. If they had all stayed at home in their comfortable residences none of this would have happened.