Thursday, 4 September 2014
FTSE nears 1999 highs, but for how long?
Of all the times to do this, at the beginning of September, on anniversary of the Wall Street Crash no less.
As most people know, September is traditionally when we have big stock market corrections, macro conditions in the world at the moment are the most perilous politically in my lifetime. Economically, China is slowing, the Eurozone really feeling the effect of sanctions whilst UK and USA run along on QE funded property fantasies.
Whilst it seems unlikely there should be a huge crash now, a correction is certain in September and October - will the FTSE finish the year at all time highs - it should on any kind of historically analysis (on an inflation basis we are 30% off real highs anyway).
Somehow I doubt it though, I can see the year ending for the market at around 6700-6800 after an Xmas recovery from a very rocky patch later this year.
Next year I foresee being very bearish.
*And this is without a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum which would be around 5% off the FTSE in the short term I would imagine.