Thursday 12 March 2015

Putin ill - a would-be Black Swan event?

Chances are it will come to nothing, but it has intrigued me think this morning that if reports of Putin being very unwell were true and he were to suddenly and unexpectedly come over all Hamlet, it would rather throw the play open...

- Who would take over - Putin has been careful to not groom a successor. There does not seem to be a familial line up in waiting.

- Would they continue to back the Ukraine war - from what I can tell, this is not quite so overwhelmingly supported at home as is portrayed.

- Might Obama back away from a deal with Iran. Without Russia, Assad in Syria has a limited shelf-life. With the imminent arrival of several Iranian brigades his future currently is looking more assured.

- Greece's weak hand would be even weaker in their 'negotiations' with Germany the EU.

As always, the world could become a more stable place or less stable one very quickly.


Nick Drew said...

Everyone everywhere would be very glad of Medvedev as (at least) a stop-gap

you are right about the Ukranian adventure not being universally popular - not even the Crimea thing has been received rapturously in all quarters

An early Medvedev gambit involving immediate end to sanctions + big dollop of €€€ / $$$ + devo-max in E.Ukr + quiet withdrawal of tanks + nothing particularly humiliating in public, would go down nicely at home

he could even offer some assistance against ISIL ...

BE said...

So my prediction may be coming true. I should start gambling.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Leaders come and go. Interests do not. I wouldn't expect much to change if Putin went.

Jer said...

Russian nationalism is on the rise. We are probably better off with Putin than whoever comes next.