Tuesday 21 April 2015

Will Tsipras win the election for Cameron?

I come back from abroad for a couple of weeks and realise there is a complete left-wing take-over of the UK in prospect! Blimey!

The first thing I see is a group hug on the telly of three loony-left non-English women all high fiving because they have been discussing magic money tree economics and saying Farage is a racist and Tories eat babies.

It's like a form of weird time travel to the early 1980's militant timezone.

Worse for the forces of the Right, the Tories seem to have forgotten about sound money and campaigning on their successful(ish) economic record in favour of attacking a Labour and the SNP - which just by doing so is giving them more legitimacy.

Even weirder in this bizarre world, the opinion polls which now appear daily like cluster bombs, are showing precisely no changes to anything with all the Parties stuck on around the same likely voting figures for months on end. The very definition of hot air.

So we await a so-called 'Black Swan' an event to change the dynamic of the election. As ever, this can be anything from a major disaster to a Foreign Policy issue or even a Royal Baby.

The only one I can foresee happening is the rapid end to the Greek stand-off. Domestically the Greek government is very popular just at the time when the EU is rallying to Germany's side. The QE in Europe has sucked up so much of the bond market that there is confidence that a Grexit could be contained and managed.

This may be misplaced, maybe not. Certainly I do not believe a 10% fall in UK GDP from Grexit that some of the madder Euro-enthusiasts like to spout.

However, the money is due to run out in Greece in mid-May and even now the Government is hoovering up money from local authorities to try and keep the salaries and pensions paid. This is desperate stuff an may not work.

A sudden Grexit or the panicky build up to it in Early May would surely be a big boost for the Tories - on a no change and sound economic management platform - maybe enough to get them to largest party with a minority Government. Logically, UKIP should  benefit to as the overall insanity of the EU is exposed further for the damage it is doing to constituent member countries who happen not to be Germany.

It's a sad state of affairs for right wingers that we are left hoping for this to avoid a Communist take-over...


Blue Eyes said...

I don't know what the Tories are up to. Perhaps they are hoping for a Lab/SNP "win", an economic collapse and then a landslide Tory win in 2020?

DtP said...

Absoltely - I buggered off to Lisbon last weekend and came back to find Cammo had offered 30 hours free Kiddy Kare for what? I mean ffs - we've already got 5 or 6 socialist parties - is there some bandwagon going by that's missed out my house? A bloody shambles.

Bill Quango MP said...

Don't forget an extra weeks holiday if you say are doing work for a charidee..


John in Cheshire said...

Maybe the plan is to lose the election without appearing to do so. Perhaps they know something really awful will happen after election and they don't want to be left holding the parcel when the music stops.

Steven_L said...

It's like Sarkozy said Laissez faire, c'est morte. The government just try and control everything now, the bond markets, the housing market, everything. You vote for who you want hiring the technocrats and awarding their peerages when they retire.

So there is very little difference between the parties. Tories promise a very slight cash spending increase, labour don't publish spending plans, the SNP promise to increase inflation adjusted spending by about 0.2% of GDP a year but traipse around Glasgow shouting about a hundred and forty billion.

Other than that, their manifestos are all more or less the same, aimed at the same few swing voters in the same few constituencies that will decide the election. Even the SNP manifesto isn't really that cutting edge. Keep the triple lock, X more affordable homes, more green energy blah blah blah.

Nick Drew said...

Although completely outwith Crosby's control (pah!) it could be that the Greek thing works for Cameron in one way or another

Panic (e.g. Grexit) always tends to favour incumbents

there's also the matter of the EU showing whether or not a determined national government can actually achieve anything up against the intransigent euromonster - given that few seem to reckon much to Cameron's intention to renegotiate

but anything definitive before 7 May? I doubt it

Jer said...

"Dear Wolfgang, there is no money left.


I wish, but it wouldn't be enough to make me vote for a party led by "Dave" Cameron.

Blue Eyes said...

I quite like Dave, and I really like George and Boris, but this Brown-lite campaign is really turning me off.

Tune in at 5 ;-)

Bill Quango MP said...

Brown was heading for a slaughter of Agincourt proportions.
Until the wheels feel off the wagon and people decided he was the beast to fix them back on.

Forgetting that he was at least partly responsible for them falling off in the first place.

So, a Grexit would be to Cameron's advantage.

But it can't come in time. A few more last chance- last deadlines yet. Maybe next year.

SG said...

Aello, Ocypete & Celaeno - the Harpies. Shakespeare's "weyward Sisters, hand in hand". Are not these three hugging 'sistas' merely the latest incarnation of those malevolent spirits?

"Fair is foul and foul is fair. Hover through the fog and filthy air". 

Dark times ahead I fear...