Net Zero contradictions: SNP/Green fallout is symptomatic

As argued here several times, governments are deeply ill-advised to set "legally binding targets" for Net Zero policies.  Well, LBTs for almost anything actually; because somebody litigious will be displeased when a target is missed.  How much time and energy can any government afford to spend defending such legal actions?  Yet that's what is happening increasingly across those parts of the world  - UK, EU, USA etc - where governments can be challenged in these ways by anyone with the wonga / sympathetic lawyers etc to muster a challenge (& make the challenge without getting a 'Visit' to dissuade them from their actions).  Since some of these targets are essentially out of reach, it's child's play to demonstrate the government is "not doing enough" (although there's a trap down that road for the litigant, we'll come on to later).    

One or both of two reactions are inevitable.  (i) Governments will take away the means for challenges to be mounted: (ii) they will row back from legally binding targets.  Whatever the attractions of the former to ministers not much concerned for good governance, without doubt the latter is the correct approach, in logic and in law. 

And in Scotland, on specifically the Net Zero issue we've just seen the SNP / Green coalition's first minister Humza Yousaf do exactly that.  It rather seems he did it without consulting the Greens - not much point, really - and now they are parting company, Yousaf unilaterally jumping the SNP out of the Coalition before they were pushed.  Similar things have happened in Germany on a somewhat less dramatic scale - no outright coalition ruptures yet - and doubtless in other places I haven't noticed.  

'Net Zero 2050' as a legally binding target has an odd history.  Many governments had vague 'ambitions' in that direction but as regards outright LBT it took a flailing, failing Theresa May to be the first in, with her hastily-conceived, un-deliberated bid for legacy-glory back in 2019.  It took everyone by surprise, not least Parliament, which shamefully spent next to no time on the legislation; but also a bewildered Climate Change Committee which had to gulp several times before endorsing it as even feasible**.  It then took on the nature of a global vogue.

I suppose it's obvious to even legacy-hungry PMs that legislating for a legally-binding 'end to climate change by 2050' would be preposterous.  But they really ought to take that thought seriously, and take the lesson on board.  For the same reason plus additional issues of pure logic, picking a second-order proxy like 'locally-produced CO2 emissions' for your LBT is almost as ridiculous (by its own lights, that is) without switching it to 'CO2 emitted as a consequence of local consumption'.  

But at least 2050 is a (fairly) long time into the future, to the point where a government defending a legal action can at least argue "how can you be sure we're not going to meet the LBT?"  Thus far, HMG has failed at this game by not convincing the courts it's doing very much at all.  But here's the danger for the litigious greens: the more a government appears to be doing (and right now, that's quite a lot, what with lengthy strategies - on paper - for new nukes, hydrogen, CCS, HPs, EVs etc etc, plus quite a bit of dosh) the more the greens need to 'prove' the run-rate isn't enough.  And in doing that, there's a risk they'll prove that the required run-rate is in fact substantially more than 36 per over, and can't be achieved by anybody.

But that's to get caught up in the fiction, because as suggested above, governments are not going to prolong their own agonies for much longer.  Really crass targets like the SNP/Green's annual increments adding up to an eventual 2050 end-game are just too easy to identify as impossible - so they have to be pulled.  

That case is just the most dramatic we've seen so far, and with the most immediate political consequences.  But will the SNP thereby lose votes, eh?  That isn't quite so obvious.  The Tories have softened a fair few lower-visibility targets already themselves, taking the 'ULEZ' gamble it'll help them a bit at the polls.  The soundness of that judgement may take a bit of calibrating if the GE is as much of a meltdown as many believe.  But Starmer never rushes in with a promise to 'reverse the reversal' in these matters, does he?

As with several things, let's check back at year-end to see how the land lies after all those 2024 GEs.  My guess is that across Europe and the USA, a slew of targets will have been softened.  That's partly for the avoidance of litigation, as above; partly for electoral calculations; and partly something I spotted the big oil companies concluding a while back.  "We've now had several years' experience to analyse; we've done the numbers, and checked them twice; they just don't add up."  

ND 

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** which they only did making a bunch of caveats so sweeping, they might as well have said: sorry, it can't be done.

SNP - like a Toytown constituency branch

If the fish-woman gets arrested shortly, as is widely speculated, the SNP's humiliation will be complete.  In the major parties one sometimes encounters an apparently thriving constituency branch which completely folds when a long-time figurehead chairman departs and it transpires there was nothing else of substance there at all: the difference being that with larger parties there is genuine institutional depth, and a Head Office that can intervene to put things back on their feet.  Poor 'Mo' Yousaf** resembles the hapless constituency stooge left inheriting such a situation - but there is no Head Office by way of stability and superior resources for him to lean on; he's it!  And it'll turn out the camper van doesn't actually belong to the SNP either: so, no holiday for him. 

Other illustrative parallels suggest themselves.  In the depths of History Corner there's poor old Richard Cromwell in 1649; and more recently UKIP (remember that?) when Farage's departure made it clear that it was less of an enduring political institution with depth and significance, and more of a shallow puddle with only one rather popular fish in it.

Let's see if Starmer can strategise this one to his advantage.  It ought to be possible, but he shows every sign of being a one-trick pony, and a very wooden pony at that.  Watch for a clunky and unconvincing move towards a devo-max offering in an announcement from that quarter soon.

You'd need a heart of stone, etc etc.  Personally, I'm hoping this all assists in the noble cause of scuppering Sturgeon's "trans self-ID" legislation once and for all.  Will Yousaf really go to the wall for that, in today's circumstances?   

ND

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** There is no deeper insult than incorrectly rendering somebody's name, which indicates to the victim you've no idea who they are really; don't much care either; and are probably representative of everyone else, too.  I discovered this by accident as a journo on a student newspaper many decades ago, when a simple typo caused an absolute outpouring of distress and anger.  Sorry to say, callow and uncaring youth that I was, this then became something I deployed deliberately to offend - ten times more effective than mere abuse.  (And not even actionable!)

The Swirling Realignment of British Politics

The 'Independent Group' - a small splinter of plywood, or the first jolt of tectonic shift?  The Brexit Party (Co Ltd) - a single-issue vanity project, or the model for parties of the 2020's?  The 'UK Youth Climate Coalition' - an NGO ramp, or a nascent force for change?  The only thing we may be sure of is that none of these new developments will go short of cash: that's the easy bit.

Yes, as we all knew, 2019 is going to be a year for the political connoisseur.  Which politician, and/or which organisation, will be both sharp and flexible enough to make anything from these swirling pieces of jigsaw?  Can bricks be made from the straws-in-the-wind?  Let's look at the existing organisations, all of which look leaden-footed right now, but all of which have resources and incentives to attempt to capitalise on the chaos.

1.  Celtic Fringe parties (primarily SNP, DUP, Sinn Fein).  All essentially single-issue and opportunistic.  Probably don't need to change in order to survive in their current state, even if that's a rather passive objective.  SNP will need to weather the Salmond storm (and hence will tend to wind their necks in a bit more than they otherwise would); but it's not clear that Labour are in any position to roll them back out of Westminster at the next GE.  One comes across suggestions of a 'unilateral inde-referendum', which couldn't be ruled out.  Mostly, though, with the Salmond of Damocles over their heads, it'll be watch-and-wait.**

For many months I have puzzled over Sinn Fein's quiescence; and it's nearly two years since I last got a proper political briefing in a Dublin pub.  My inclination is to assume that, as an organisation with a clear goal and the ability to play a long game, they are just waiting for the chance to pluck the juicy prize when the bough bends sufficiently for them to reach up and take it.  (To this end, BTW, they must surely be willing ultimately to take up those Westminster seats that everyone assumes they'll forswear forever.)

2.  Libs.  Is it too glib to pass on without further comment?  In a world where genuine political novelty is in the air, they don't look like any sort of major beneficiary, even if someone might someday casually enquire as to the price of their rather small block-vote.  (We all know that answer: PR.)

3.  Greens.   Must rather like the look of the 'UK Youth Climate Coalition', in much the same way as a bunch of OAPs like the look of kids playing mixed-sex touch rugby in the park.  Everyone hopes to harness da yoof (particularly if they know how to set up a good website) but only Momentum shows any signs of weaponising it so far (see below).

4.  Labour.  Do any C@W readers have an insider's insight here?  My secondhand info is that the split within Labour between Corbyn-worshippers and the rest runs bitter and deep to a degree only lefties really understand.  Still, we must assume the Official Labour Party will keep it together enough to take the field at the next GE.  We must also assume that, buoyed by the (relative) success of the student-loan bribe in 2017, they will be offering free unicorns to every child; and, most specifcally, a voting age of 16 - perhaps arguing to 18-19-20's that they'll get much more of what they want if they vote for reinforcements from even younger teens next time.  (Monbiot shows here how they'll easily dress this up.)  

And, as noted before, Momentum (that's Momentum Co Ltd, actually and technically another middle-age corporate vehicle) have already gone a way down this youth road, with moderate success.  The key here is whether Disillusioned-with-Jeremy of Bedsit, England can keep the faith for another two whole years.  Maybe.  Maybe not.

Anyhow, the near term future for Labour looks to me like More Of The Same.  Making no headway in Scotland.  Worried about northern Brexit towns.  Quite deeply exhausted by internal warfare - too much so to mount any kind of genuine revival or metamorphosis.   (The summer of antisemitism really did take a toll, as far as I can tell.)  Corbyn, and particularly McDonnell, starting to look their age, whilst still kidding themselves they can play a waiting game.**  Starmer the only vestige of manifest leadership (or maybe Watson?), even if Cooper is keeping plenty of powder dry.  Which brings us to ...

5. The Wicked Tories.  I suppose we must reckon that the next few days might bring about a few desertions...  [OVERTAKEN BY EVENTS]   And it's hard to overlook the sheer number of C@W BTL comments that read "I'll never vote for those bastards ever again, ever".   And perhaps the new Farage vanity-vehicle is really attractive enough to adopt the mantle over the next two years.  (Though if that's the plan, they might have come up with a better party name.)

That said:  the Tories are UK history's great survivors.  Loyalty, inertia, lassitude; as you will.  But it's not called Conservative for nothing (and has there every been a bogeyman quite like Corbyn?)  Of course, it also speaks to More of The Same too, even more resoundingly than with Labour.  There can't be an accommodation with Farage, at least until after the next GE.  No mighty leaders-in-waiting have set up camp within the party, even if a romantic sort of Boris-camp has subsisted for years and we can all see the other petty displays of unlimited ambition in little side-booths all across Westminster.  

So - there are some jigsaw pieces to push mournfully around the table.  How many more substantive elements will complete the picture at the time of the next GE?

ND
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** Sinn Fein might have some excuse for watch-and-wait; but in the case of both the SNP and Labour, I reckon they are kidding themselves as to the effectiveness of their would-be opportunism.  They all dream of being Wellington at Salamanca; but in reality it's more like idleness and inability to make the political weather. 
   

Alex Salmond Rails Against 'Process' ... Natural Justice is the Serious Issue at Stake

For obvious reasons, I won't say it's all a bit fishy ... but it is interesting.

On Sunday, at BQ's BTL suggestion I'll be reviewing the stage version of Imperium, Robert Harris' masterly retelling of the story of Cicero, 'father of the Roman nation'.   In them days, it was absolutely routine for politicians, serving and retired, to be prosecuted for something.  Bribery and corruption loomed large, of course, but almost anything could be dredged up - or made up.  Most of them seemed to be guilty of so much, the need for outright fabrication wasn't too great; just a little embroidery, perhaps.  How unlike our own chaste times ...

Anyhow, to Alex Salmond.  Upon the accusations against him being made public, his actions and carefully-worded interviews suggest he reckons his best course lies in attacking the 'process' to which he's being subjected.  It flies in the face of 'every law of natural justice', he says.

Actually, there are only two laws of natural justice: nemo iudex in causa sua, and audi alteram partem (and they go back to Cicero's day, too).  Personally I'm very keen on them, as should anyone be who values freedom and rule of law.  But they are under attack.

Why do I say this?  Because the other day I chanced to look up what Wiki says on the subject, to find this:

While the term natural justice is often retained as a general concept, it has largely been replaced and extended by the general "duty to act fairly"

The point is this.  When the 'intersectionality' and transgender headbangers let rip, their primary thesis is that their self-identified status and self-narrated 'lived experience' cannot be gainsaid.  But of of course our two loyal friends the LoNJ blow this clean out of the water.  We can justly scrutinise, challenge, and if appropriate deny, their self-identified anything; and they are not themselves the final arbiter of the matter.

But if we fall back to a general duty to act fairly, they will play the "oppression" card and claim it trumps everything else.

And so, notwithstanding I despise the old charlatan, I wish Salmond well with his procedural challenge.  Let's see where proper due process gets him.

ND 

SNP - Get yor act together at once and stop being such scaredy cats

Here we were last week, all* cheering on St Nicola and her handbagging of the evil Thatcher Prime Minister May. Everything was so good, it was even sunny and spring like in London.


What do we get just a few days later?


A wretched, confused and frankly useless diatribe at the SNP conference where no effort was made to guild the lily at all. Apparently there will be no challenge to a Second Project Fear and Scotland, if ever granted a second referendum will go straight into a terminal economic decline. Plus there will be no security or army and there will also be no currency - or at least none that can be guaranteed.


It is almost as if the SNP don't really want there to be a second referendum - as if instead this was some kind of Machiavellian attempt to wage an endless war of grievance on England.


No, I say, No -


1) Look to Brexit - PROJECT FEAR FAILED - there won't be an economic crash. The more one is confidently predicted, the less chance of this occurring.


2) Currency - pah - just use the Pound, it is not like you have any control of the Bank of England anyway. This is all deflection as the reality is no change.


3) Don't forget to threaten to welch on the debt, I recall they did actually scare the establishment last time.


4) Keep reminding Scots they have a Tory Government, it is a surefire winner in the long-run.


There is no chance of the SNP losing the next referendum, I just hope they can keep the courage of their convictions to push for one in 2021. Scotland declaring independence to rejoin the EU would surely be the cherry on the rather delicious cake of Brexit.


*(OK, this maybe a minority view)

Scary Scottish Politics

One of these horrors comes out in the run-up to Halloween, is round and orange, and alternates between beaming at children and radiating menace.  The other is a pumpkin. 

Politician                                               Pumpkin

ND

Will Tsipras win the election for Cameron?

I come back from abroad for a couple of weeks and realise there is a complete left-wing take-over of the UK in prospect! Blimey!

The first thing I see is a group hug on the telly of three loony-left non-English women all high fiving because they have been discussing magic money tree economics and saying Farage is a racist and Tories eat babies.

It's like a form of weird time travel to the early 1980's militant timezone.

Worse for the forces of the Right, the Tories seem to have forgotten about sound money and campaigning on their successful(ish) economic record in favour of attacking a Labour and the SNP - which just by doing so is giving them more legitimacy.

Even weirder in this bizarre world, the opinion polls which now appear daily like cluster bombs, are showing precisely no changes to anything with all the Parties stuck on around the same likely voting figures for months on end. The very definition of hot air.

So we await a so-called 'Black Swan' an event to change the dynamic of the election. As ever, this can be anything from a major disaster to a Foreign Policy issue or even a Royal Baby.

The only one I can foresee happening is the rapid end to the Greek stand-off. Domestically the Greek government is very popular just at the time when the EU is rallying to Germany's side. The QE in Europe has sucked up so much of the bond market that there is confidence that a Grexit could be contained and managed.

This may be misplaced, maybe not. Certainly I do not believe a 10% fall in UK GDP from Grexit that some of the madder Euro-enthusiasts like to spout.

However, the money is due to run out in Greece in mid-May and even now the Government is hoovering up money from local authorities to try and keep the salaries and pensions paid. This is desperate stuff an may not work.

A sudden Grexit or the panicky build up to it in Early May would surely be a big boost for the Tories - on a no change and sound economic management platform - maybe enough to get them to largest party with a minority Government. Logically, UKIP should  benefit to as the overall insanity of the EU is exposed further for the damage it is doing to constituent member countries who happen not to be Germany.

It's a sad state of affairs for right wingers that we are left hoping for this to avoid a Communist take-over...

Nicola Sturgeon Coalition Blues

It’s here for you, Madame Nicola 
Mili loves you more than you will know, whoa ho ho 
We're here to please, Madame Nicola, 
Coalition beckons any day, hey hey hey 

We'd like to know a little bit about your tough red lines 
We know you’re keen to help yourself 
Look around you, all you see are panic-stricken eyes 
Stroll in Downing Street until you feel at home 
Coo-coo-ca-choo, Madame Nicola … 

On a TV sofa on a Sunday afternoon 
Being in the candidates' debate 
Lie about it, tease them with it 
When you get to choose 
Every way you look the English lose 

Where have you gone, Margaret Thatchio 
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you, whoo hoo hoo
What's that you say, Madame Nicola 
Maggie T has left and gone away, hey hey hey 



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© Nick Drew 2015

SNP in Westminster - A changing perspective

Not so long ago Channel 4 made a useless documentary about how Farage and UKIP swept to power and were then abject and racist. What else to expect from such left-leaning media?

Yet fast forward just a couple of months and instead what do we see. A nationalist party poised to hold the balance of power in Parliament...only its not UKIP, its the SNP.

This present huge challenges to the UK media reporting. After all, they are near unanimous in their hatred of UKIP - even the right-wing press wants to support the Tories and the left wing just paint a bogeyman.

However the SNP are signed up communists and red to the core. I dhave not see Nicola Sturgeon's recent performances but no doubt they are the same as ever, help the poor, tax the rich, hate the Tories and all will be well with the help of the oil revenues magic money tree.

This is a message that always has a superficial appeal to many voters who are not troubled to think of how money and fortune are created nor of what the rewards for labour and fecklessness are in nature.

Together with the '45%' of voters in Scotland who voted for Independence, the SNP are well on course for 40-50 seats in Parliament. At that rate it is hard to see either a Tory or Labour majority as even possible. With 35 odd other seats going to the rest of the parties, this leaves only 575 for the two main partied to split - so around 285 each it would seem. With the Tory and Labour level pegging this is very much how the election is shaping up.

What will be fun is the Tories having slightly more votes and seats than Labour, but the SNP holding the balance and only working with Labour. An Ed Milliband minority Government with SNP support from Salmond and Sturgeon.

I can't see that lasting long and if so a second election will have an even freakier result for sure as English voters possibly plump for their own nationalist party to vote for.

What policies would a Labour-SNP coalition go for - surely there must be some real crazy stuff in their beyond a big extension of the mansion tax?

Boing Boing Brown wins in Glenrothes

Labour win Glenrothes. A very good result for the Prime Minister with a Labour vote of 19,946 to the SNP's 13,209. A 6737 hold.Pretty amazing.

SNP struggling to put a positive spin on the result after predicting a win here.
That Iceland quote has come back to haunt Mr Salmond. He suggested that Scotland could join Iceland, Ireland and Scandinavia in an "arc of prosperity". That provoked a scathing retort from the Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy who claimed that it would have been an "arc of insolvency". Well quite.
That and some scaremongering over care for the elderly seem to have done the SNP in.

Oh, and a 1.5% interest rate cut probably didn't hurt {as the Labour candidate mentioned in his victory speech}

So well done Sarah.

Odds shortening on Mr Drew's prediction for an early election?