Thursday 31 December 2015

New Year Predictions Game

I never do very well at this, least year worse than ever. Perhaps I should stop. But since when have facts and logic ever prevented me from holding forth on this blog, eh?

so before the true merriment of the end of 2015 which I for one am glad to see the back of, one last game.

Five Questions, Five answers:

1. Will there be a referendum on the Britain leaving the EU in 2016?
2. Will Hilary Clinton be elected President of the USA?
3. Will EU sanctions on Russia be Lifted?
4. Will the oil price end up over $40 by the end of the year?
5. Will Jeremy Corbyn still be leader of the Labour Party?

Nice simple questions. Over the weekend I will collate and record the answers. Winner gets a bottle of Champers this time next year!

Happy New Year from

CU, ND, BQ and BE


James Higham said...

Yes, yes, yes, maybe, maybe.

Timbo614 said...

1: No
2: No
3: Yes
4: Yes
5: Yes

Happy new year all.

BE said...

1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.
4. No.
5. Yes.

1. I have to follow my own prediction!
2. Is there any other option? US politics has gone weird, and at least Hillary is reasonably centrist.
3. Yes, in return for some wider agreement on Syria and Ukraine.
4. I have to follow my own prediction!
5. Yes, he has got himself into a position of strength within the party. However, he may precipitate a split. Here's hoping.

Happy New Year everyone!

John in Cheshire said...

1. No
2. No
3. No
4. Yes
5. No

Steven_L said...

1. No
2. No
3. No
4. Yes, but not much over.
5. Yes.

What kind of champers?

david morris said...

1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. No
5. Yes

Happy, Peaceful, & Prosperous New Year to all........

rwendland said...

No, Yes, Yes, No, Yes.

though my record on predictions like this is hopeless! 1 & 4 are very much weak punts.

Happy New Year to all.

Nick Drew said...

1. no (my authority for this is North, who seems to know)
2. 'spose so. What a shower the Republicans are
3. yes - or at least, reduced to a token level
4. ye-es (but with no conviction. I have a March put @ $41, bought in Oct when Brent was >50, which is a rather better bet)
5. yes

Paul Ralley said...

1 yes
2 no
3 no
4 no
5 yes

Sobers said...

No, No, No, No and Yes.

Hereward Unbowed. said...

How could it possibly be a Happy new year - if Billary was by some awful happenstance elected POTUS? It would mean goodnight and Armageddon for, the WORLD.

Corbyn, will be unseated by only via an electoral disaster. For now, the scum party is loving the attention and the left is living its wet dream, McDonuts SWP are in an ecstasy of the 'tents in the bed' rub it and see repeat and repeat.

If for sales of Mercedes and Gas and nothing else.....Germany needs Russia and the sanctions will be lifted.

Iran comes on stream sometime in 2016, Oil $/light crude will stay hovering ~ $40.

I am not sure yet, that, there will be a referendum, these days in the name of 'national security' as Hollande has amply demonstrated - declare a national emergency and you can get away with murder or, is that the other ways around?

Let me draw you an allegorical image:

The death cultists, cause a bombing atrocity in London, Dave declares a "national crisis" and plays the security shutdown shuffle. Next he (DAVE) retires on a pretext of wanting to spend "lots more time with family" and being ordered around by SAMMY, hence is pushed off and into some old sinecure in the World Bank - ECB whatever.
Nation security alert, Dave out of the picture. Thereafter, and the new Tory leader (George/Theresa) says - "at times such as now, we cannot afford to be cut free of the manacles chaining us to the Brussels slaver and do not need the necessary angst a referendum would cause" - or words to that effect.


1, there's more chance of hell freezing over.

2, seesh how can you ask that - it hope to God that: she trips off her mortal coil and very soon.
(Incidentally, I do believe the rumours of her recent seizure - a minor stroke.)

3, ASAP = YES.

4, No.

5, Bet on it = YES.

TheFatBigot said...

Yes, no, no, yes, yes.

Jan said...

1. 2 referenda (or more) until we deliver the "right" answer.
2. No
3. Yes if they co-operate in Syria.
4. No
5. I hope yes as the Blairites need to be kicked out

Furthermore: the Chilcot enquiry will report (around Easter?) but Tony Blair will not be put on trial for war crimes (yet).

mike fowle said...

I would have the same answers as Nick Drew. Hilary will probably be elected because of the misrepresentation of the Republicans by the media.

Electro-Kevin said...


Electro-Kevin said...

Happy New Year to you all too.

dearieme said...

There are two hells in Hillary.

dearieme said...

1. Will there be a referendum on the Britain leaving the EU in 2016?
2. Will Hilary Clinton be elected President of the USA?
I fear so.
3. Will EU sanctions on Russia be Lifted?
No idea.
4. Will the oil price end up over $40 by the end of the year?
Ask Old King Oil.
5. Will Jeremy Corbyn still be leader of the Labour Party?
He's not leader now. He is, and probably still will be, Leader.

Peter Whale said...


And England will win the six nations.

AndrewZ said...

1. No, Dave needs to get a fake deal for a "British model" of associate membership first and he'll also be hoping that there will be an excuse to avoid the referendum entirely if he waits long enough

2. No, she'll lose by a narrow margin because too many swing voters (and Democrat voters) know that she's corrupt and incompetent

3. Some will, probably not all - EU and Russian interests will both have moved on from Ukraine by then but the process will be slow

4. No, there will be brief price spikes to well over $40 caused by political events during the year (e.g. ISIS terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia) but the average will be kept down by the continuing glut of supply

5. Yes, the moderates don't have any way to get rid of him

DJK said...


But I suspect the answers will seem irrelevant in a years time, after a series of startling/worrisome unknown unknowns.

Any chance of reviewing last year's predictions?

Wildgoose said...

1. No
2. Yes (sadly)
3. Yes
4. Yes (only just)
5. Yes

1. Maybe 2017, but they are desperately looking for an excuse to shelve a Referendum they never thought they'd have to give us.
2. There is an anti-politician backlash, which in the USA appears to have boosted the lunacy of Donald Trump. I can see the Republicans splitting if Trump wins the race to be candidate. Hillary then squeezes through against a divided opposition.
3. Sanctions are hurting both sides, both with weak economies. There'll be pressure to find an excuse for dropping them.
4. Yes, simply because nobody can afford to keep pumping at the current rate much longer. Only just mind.
5. Yes, because they need a real excuse to move against him, and there's nothing on offer.

Bill Quango MP said...

No 2017
Yes - Billary it is.
Sort of. ..
Yes - Jezza won't go now. And labour are to timid to remove their losers.
He'll be there a long while yet.

rwendland said...

On the oil price, I see BP CEO Bob Dudley predicts:

The recent drop in oil prices was here to stay "for a couple of years", with a possible low point in the first quarter of 2016

I take that as a Yes, but only just. Of course, he is rather self-interested there!

andrew said...

1. Will there be a referendum on the Britain leaving the EU in 2016?
Yes (and we will stay in)
2. Will Hilary Clinton be elected President of the USA?
Yes (only due to lack of an alternative)
3. Will EU sanctions on Russia be Lifted?
No (Poland / UK wont let the frogs sell weapons to Putin))
4. Will the oil price end up over $40 by the end of the year?
No (short of a saudi/iraq war and even then...)
5. Will Jeremy Corbyn still be leader of the Labour Party?
Yes (though some may argue he isn't the leader now)

Gypsy Hadley said...
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