Wednesday 2 March 2016

Trump vs HRC - dystopia

So, as bad as things are in the UK where we have a ruling party fast going off the rails as the economy slows, the EU fails and the opposition provides no counter-punch, the US it seems is worse.

There, in deciding who should be Presidential candidates for November in the electoral college process, Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump have emerged as strong favourites.

Hilary, the wife of a former President, bankrolled by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Trump, a US chancer who inherited billions but has a charmless approach to telling home truths; they make quite a pair to choose from.

Which means, in reality, that Trump has next to no chance of winning; given the Republican's lost last time with a more centrist candidate, the odds of the swing states like Ohio going for Trump.

So HRC will be the next President of the USA, bar some crazy events which could always happen as we know. She will be an awful President, certainly as bad as Obama which is quite a low.

I thought UK politics was messed up, but when Samantha Cameron is standing for PM against Alan Suagr in 2025, I know we will have sunk to the level of the USA


Steven_L said...

I have a modest 5/2 wager on Trump winning, it seemed good odds to me. I don't think they like Hilary very much. It'll be interesting to see whether she mops up the female votes like Obama did the black vote. Will brash American men hold their nose and vote for PC Hilary or, in the secrecy of the ballot box, plump for Trump. A vote for Trump is to give 'the establishment' the bird too, something more and more people want to do these days.

If Trump does win, I wonder how much of their money he'll managed to trouser building his wall?

But a better bet is Ladbrokes 6/1 on the aussies winning the T20 world cup. Go for each way.

andrew said...

I listened to the donald last night / this am
The thing is, having bet on Hilary to win on Sunday (betfair, good odds), already I realise I may be wrong.

Suddenly, he sounded sensible. It has just dawned on he he has a real chance.

We were reminded that for the republicans, Trump is (!) a middle-ground candidate in a sea of foaming tea partiers, anti gay rightists, anti abortionist, bible wielding nutjobs. The 'party elders' may hate him but he is more electable than Cruz/Rubio.

Be prepared to see Trump pretty much deny he ever said those things about muslims/mexicans. In the uk this would not wash, but in the US there is the endless ability to re-invent yourself and start again. They are different.

It was pointed out that whilst Trump is ahead, he only has ~300 delegates and needs ~1300 to get the nomination.
A lot of things can happen from here to June.

Some republican commentators did say that if he did get the nomination, many republican voters will just stay at home come nov.

... but he is a person who makes deals ...

So if I could get 5/1 on trump I would.

Bill Quango MP said...

To win the presidency you must really carry 3 out of the big 4 states. New York, Texas California Florida .
Then take the 20 college votes states as well.
Without those then capturing the vast majority of mid size states, Virginia, Ohio, etc is necessary.

States like Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii are almost irrelevant.

We need to look at trumps numbers vs the other republicans in the big states. Hilary's are good. Big, big wins in the key ones. Sanders is picking up the 3 or 4 seat states.
If that were trump, and he won 10 of those smaller states, it still wouldn't equal the single win of California likely for HRC.

Electro-Kevin said...

People are voting Trump because they're fed up with Left wing twunts. The Left wing are voting for HRC ... because they're twunts.

Electro-Kevin said...

We (the British) won't like HRC in office.

AndrewZ said...

Hillary Clinton is utterly corrupt, dishonest and incompetent. She would be a terrible President. But perhaps the most dangerous thing about her is the extent to which she might be vulnerable to blackmail. You can be sure that the Russians, the Chinese and most of America's other rivals and enemies will have been collecting dirt on Hillary for years, just in case she ever did get the top job. I can just imagine Clinton going into a meeting with Putin only for him to show her a huge file full of damning evidence of her corrupt dealings, and then make some "suggestions" as to what adjustments he would like to see in American foreign policy.

Steven_L said...

AndrewZ - and the CIA will know what is in Putin's Swiss bank account(s)?

Maybe it's like old school warfare, where the tactician officer class stood on opposing mounds, playing chess with their infantry, cavalry and artillery - he's loading his cannons, must be a bluff because the horse is about to charge - Right you lot, FORM SQUARE! - and honoured a gentleman's agreement not to try and kill one another.

Electro-Kevin said...

According to Piers Morgan Trump is far more moderate than he's making out.

I think he'd be a good president but I fear that he's going to get HRC in.

AndrewZ said...

"Trump is far more moderate than he's making out"

E-K, I believe that's true. Trump's interest in this kind of angry nationalist-populist politics seems to have suddenly appeared out of nowhere, just at the moment when there is a rising tide of anti-elite sentiment that could turn it into a winning ticket. It looks more like an example of Trump's ability to spot an opportunity than any genuine ideological conviction.

But Trump's key skills are as a salesman and a deal-maker. So I think that the version of Trumpism we're seeing at the moment is just the sales pitch to the primary voters. It may also be a deliberate strategy to dominate the headlines and drown out anything his rivals say. But once he's sealed the deal in the primary he will have to make a different pitch to the country as a whole. Trumpism 2.0 will have a more moderate tone, and Trump will probably handle the transition by refusing to acknowledge that anything has changed and then ridiculing anybody who suggests that it has.

If Trump actually gets elected he will need to do a deal with the party establishment and the permanent bureaucracy to have any chance of enacting his policies and legislative program, whatever they turn out to be. He will allow them to carry on with their cronyism, corruption and general pursuit of self-interest as long as they don't oppose him. Those that do will find themselves vilified as crooked Washington fat-cats, and will serve both as a warning to others and a sop to the voters who actually want some real reform.

So I see Trump as being more like LBJ than Mussolini - a ruthless, vulgar opportunist with a talent for getting his own way, unhindered by any strong political convictions. A Trump administration would largely be a "business as usual" administration. This would shock and disappoint many of the people who now support him, leading to an even stronger demand for a genuine "burn it all to the ground" candidate in the next election.

CityUnslicker said...

I would much prefer Trump to HRC.

They are both very limited candidates which reflects very badly on the US. Ed Milliband is superior to either of them, as re Boris, Gordon Brown and George Osborne; the is not a complement to these political loons, but to show how poor the US system has become at sifting a President.

dearieme said...

It's not too late for Boris to run: he is a US citizen after all. His ticket could be "I am at least sane, and my crooked acts have been very small beer."

Steven_L said...

Look on the bright side, if Hilary does get crowned on the back of being Goldman/JP preferred candidate that no other democrat could outspend, or if Trump does buy the presidency, maybe they'll look at doing something about how they do select a president.

And at least the revolution is coming from the right and not the left!

hovis said...

@Andrew "America's other rivals and enemies will have been collecting dirt on Hillary for years".

Remembere she may yet be indicted by the FBI re: Bhengazi don't worry about the Chinese or Russians.

Both Clintons have enough against them to show they are vile, lying, murdering, corrupt, pro-war {never voted against any military action] sociopaths. And people wet their knickers that Trump might be president - ye gods!