Friday 18 November 2016

Top Trump's for UK

Excellent analysis by Andrew Lilico on the likelihood of a Trump deal with the UK.

Carrying on from yesterday's discussion, it is really going to upset the Left when we get a Trump deal. Moreover, it is also really going to upset the EU as this will be an example of the UK benefitting from Brexit.

Also, Nicola Sturgeon will be in full force for a whole year about not doing a deal with the Orange One, talking her own book for the same reasons.

There are only 2 potential downsides:

1 - Trump makes a tough negotiator and maybe the deal in services won't be so good, he will want healthcare in it and that will send the UK with our NHS touchstone into meltdown.

2- The EU will hate us so much they wont negotiate on Article 50 and so we will have a tough tie re-creating our space in the world from 2019 onwards which will be a slight drag on the economy and altogether unnecessary.

At least the above two will be mutually exclusive.


Blue Eyes said...

So BMW / Burgundy et al. won't want access to the 60+ million market anymore because we've done a deal with a market with 400 million or whatever it is? I have often dreamed of the UK managing to be a member of both European and trans-Atlantic trade areas.

Services are an interesting one. Certainly in my industry, US clients are already pretty well the biggest overseas demand. As far as I am aware we don't have any formal agreement on services so I don't see how a deal with Trumpland could be worse...

Blue Eyes said...

Especially with consumer spending up 6+% in the last year. Wowsers.

CityUnslicker said...

Not sure Merkel and her merry band of common purpose types are going to get too busy asking BMW for their view.

Goods with the EU will be easy anyway, services will be the toughie and that is 70% of our economy.

Thud said...

Perhaps Germany will get over its decades long self hate fest and show Merkel the queen of self loathing the door...stranger things have happened lately.

Electro-Kevin said...

We have our own 'constitutional' issues to get over yet. We are about to be bogged down in confusing legalese.

The EU can be spiteful towards us. Are they right to be spiteful towards us ? I've wrested with this one as they didn't invite us in.

I think they are wrong on the basis that the EU has morphed beyond recognition. The problem with the recent referendum is that we ought to have had it 20 years ago.

Freedom of movement was never a founding principle of the EU/EC/Common Market - whatever they're going to call it next... probably USER. (United States of the European Republic)

Electro-Kevin said...

The editor of The New Statesman said that he believes we are in the midst of a revolution and that the old order of Liberal Political Correctness is in its last throes.

At least someone on the Left realises it - Dan Hodges too. This is what Brexit/Trump/Le Pen is all about.

How the Snowflakes figure into this I don't know. I get the impression that they couldn't throw off a duvet in the morning, let alone the weight of Brexit anger, whooping Southern State Yeehaws, Islamic conservatism or tough Russian conscript boot leather.

Excepting a few trustafarian diehards I doubt many of them have much staying power.

andrew said...

1 - Trump makes a tough negotiator

According to people on the other side of the deal, he is a bit useless, but very good at talking up how good he is.

2- The EU will hate us so much they wont negotiate on Article 50

Can't see the problem with that as we should seek to reduce the size of the city c/f the rest of the economy over time.
also, I think we are either in or out (i.e. full passporting or some level of tariff - possibly wto levels)

Blue Eyes said...

I read somewhere that Trump would have made more if he'd put his dad's money into an index tracker...

Steven_L said...

He's no Buffett, but those few folk that have been to his golf course do say it is a nice golf course. It's a bit mad driving past the president of the USA's golf course as I did today. Maybe now it is the president of the USA's golf course folk will actually go and play on it?

Anonymous said...

"We are about to be bogged down in confusing legalese."

Indeed. The legal profession were aghast and furious at the flak that was shot at the three High Court judges, following their disgraceful ruling over Article 50.

The Supreme Court have now surrounded themselves with human shields in the shape of the Scottish and Welsh "governments", plus an obscure Marxist trade union, should they conclude with a similar ruling.

Interesting times.

Blue Eyes said...

"I don't understand it, so it must be a conspiracy".