Oil Price: Hurricane Harvey Is A Disaster For OPEC ... refinery outages could eat into crude oil demand for quite some time: Goldman says that the supply outages could be outweighed by the destruction of demand.
Reuters: Harvey may succeed where OPEC has struggled by boosting oil prices ... according to a report from S&P Global Platts, onshore shale oil output was in the storm’s path ... and producers in the region have idled production.See - nobody knows! And that's before Fat Boy exploded his H-bomb: stew that one in! The Beeb is in on it, too:
Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science: Radio 4 examines why experts often get predictions wrong – and meets the people who get them rightMore like they met a handful of stopped clocks who presumably told the time correctly on a couple of occasions. Nope: 'experts' can't even agree on up or down (and when they do, it's probably time to go contrarian). There are many, many reasons to agree with Keynes, Galbraith and Drucker that price-forecasting based on 'fundamental analysis' or similar is not intellectually respectable. That's quite apart from its track record being diabolical.
Still, people believing in forecasts are what makes the world go round. The bookie always has a deal for you ... and all those spec assets become sunk costs. Well - someone had to build the railways.