Tuesday, 13 November 2018
Brexit - Reloaded
The Blue Pill Option
The Tories are in a right bind now, their Prime Minister has played her really shit hand quite badly. However, a deal has been struck with the EU. One that creates a meaningful path away from the EU over the next 5-7 years, with little disruption to the economy or country in the meantime. Yes, lots of caveats where the EU have had their way and lots of anger that we can't strike trade deals and other such stuff for a few years yet. But Brexit is done and no Government is going to have the willingness or political capital to change this course back once set in stone.
Taking the Blue Pill is this option, the Government with the help of a few rebels passes the Deal, life goes on, May gets another year as Prime Minister and the government can take a look at some domestic issues for a change and maybe even try to legislate in a few areas and make a real difference.
The Red Pill Option
The Tories are in a bind right now, their Prime Minister has played her shit hand very badly. The Deal on offer is not a go-er for the ERG or Remainers. Sensing the winds of change, cabinet ministers start resigning to plot their own coup attempts. The deal does not get voted on and May is gone. Chaos ensues, the EU are exasperated that all this effort was for naught and walk off the stage. The Tories have no credible replacement for May who can deliver a deal when the EU won't play ball. Instead we head for the certainties of a no deal Brexit. The Tory brand looks in a worse place than 1992 - having decided on a referendum they can't deliver the result. So we get a Hard Brexit and a Corbyn Government to boot. Once we let the commies in they will prove very troublesome to remove and in any event the brain drain will knacker the economy even more than Brexit. Northern Ireland becomes a scene of the troubles again too as the gangsters sense their moment for a bit of larceny and extortion. Scotland too fancies another referendum and the SNP gain much support.
So really, when you think about it for more than a few seconds, the choice now a deal has been agreed is not hard. Eat horrid sandwich, the alternative does not bear thinking about.