Wednesday, 27 March 2019

Indicative Votes - Comedy Gold

Oh can Brexit entertain. I mean it is quite sad overall, but as it has developed into farce at least one is able to enjoy the show. It is like a live running of The Thick of It blended with Laurel and Hardy.


Today stands to provide some epic moments. Firstly, Bercow surely, as noted by my very insightful co-authors ND and BQ (I am sucking up to you both as I am away again next week...), Bercow will not be able to resist picking only version of remain for the vote - he might throw in No Deal as a bone to be knawed on by the Remain Parliament and to make them feel better about some more top-draw virtue signalling.


Then, very likely, May's Deal will not be one of the top 3 options. The top 3 options on votes are likely to be Corbyn's carbuncle of Customs Union and Single Market membership, Remain and Revoke. What other point is there to this whole charade if not to pick a non-Brexit option?


On the back of this, we will get the comedy of May finally quitting in disgrace as she can't pass her Deal - which is sweetly ironic because it comes just as the point where she has bullied the ERG into submission but, alas, not the DUP who have it seems fled to the Remain side at the finish line, so it can't pass. There the DUP can sit, somehow blaming the Tories for the mess they have caused.


From here the entertainment gets better. A new Tory remain leader will now have to delay Brexit by a bit more and ask for a much softer deal, which hardly means leaving the EU at all. When the Tories then finish their election in a few weeks, a hard leaver will be in situ, but stuck with a new deal that involves not leaving very much. Hubris indeed. With the DUP no longer trusted due to their betrayal, a general election in 2019 becomes inevitable.


On the Labour side, the penny has finally dropped that they are not voting to remain, so the anguish of the voters will also be felt. However, a soft remain is a victory of sorts to be claimed and the far-left are very good at claiming victory when there has been none. So, for real laughs, we may well end up with Jeremy Corbyn as PM in 2019.


To top it off the banning or porn and memes on the internet by the EU just at the point when they are about to crush the UK rebellion is also fabulous timing. It echoes the 2016 migrant crisis for unfortunate highlighting of the terrible aspects of the EU at just the wrong moment and so losing the referendum in the first place. Just as they win, the goodwill is squandered.


Now none of this may happen, but the bizarre scenario above seems the most likely path of events from here.

20 comments:

john cheshire said...

My belief is that we are leaving the EU on Friday.
How that happens, I don't know, that's God's job.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately God has a vicious sense of humour.

Don Cox

Charlie said...

It's my understanding that we leave the EU on Friday unless new legislation is passed. How is the current shenanigans anything other than a waste of time?

Al said...

The EU have said they can change the political declaration in a matter of hours (proving how meaningless it is).

I predict MPs won't have the guts to revoke or long extend - they will vote for a softening of the political declaration, accepting the WA as is.

Remain MPs don't have it in them to do Ref2, revoke - they need a climb down (political dec change).

Leave MPs don't believe they would win Ref2 - they need a climb down (claim Ref2 is undemocratic - must accept WA).

DUP looses - they aren't bothered about leaving - they just want NI to be treated same as rest of UK - with WA it won't be.

DJK said...

Dominic Cummings is interesting today, saying that leave would win a new referendum by a huge margin. His point, I think, is that he would make the new campaign about the behaviour of MPs. I think everyone can agree that the present HoC, plus civil servants, are uniformly despicable.

Jan said...

Your scenario may be correct for all I know except for one thing. TM has no intention of going anywhere and will have to be prised out. How that will happen is anybody's guess.

AndrewZ said...

@john cheshire, Charlie:

The EU has offered a short delay and the government has put a statutory instrument before Parliament to amend the official exit day accordingly. MPs will vote on it this evening but it's certain to pass. The new exit day will then be May 22 if Parliament passes the Withdrawal Agreement before the original March 29 deadline, or April 12 if it does not.

Malcolm Stevas said...

For "real laughs" I'd prefer Tommy Cooper to Jeremy Corbyn: the latter induces a queasy mixture of nausea, sleepiness, and disgust - with a certain amount of anxiety at the thought of the damage even such an intellectually third-rate comic might get away with.

Anonymous said...

May has gone.
But like her lousy deal, she has resigned in name only.

Charlie said...

It gets better and better, doesn't it? No majority for any of the options on the table this evening.

E-K said...

The banning of porn has hit me particularly hard. I don't see anything remotely funny about it.

CityUnslicker said...

Not sure banning memes and me using pics on the blog is great for me either E-K. Or Porn. Or speeding limits (although as a boring driver, I am perhaps less bovvered by this, BQ will be burning with anger).

Anyway, one day in, all my predictions are going to be right for a change. Is there an emoji smug face that is not banned yet?

Nick Drew said...

@ Charlie, It gets better and better, doesn't it? No majority for any of the options on the table this evening

The MSM have no idea what to make of this

we will have compo results tomorrow

E-K said...

*smirks* works for me.

Anonymous said...

As far as "indicative votes" go, the motion by the government tomorrow beats them all. We are offering a cake, a cherry, and an a**e to be shafted with nothing in return.

What planet are these people on.

hovis said...

VPN with IP leak blocked /Tails not going to working for you E-K?

andrew said...

Hovis
Go to low end box and choose a vps in the states.

Nick Drew said...

ConHome has added four names to its already 19-name long list of Tory leadership 'candidates'

the new ones are Fox, Hancock, Harper and Morgan

to read the entire list is to weep: cometh the hour, cometh the mice

E-K said...

Hovis - The only tails I'm interested in are bunny tails. (and ears with bow tie.)

Malcolm Stevas said...

ND, exactly so - I used to daydream about someone of great intellect, stature and force such as Enoch Powell returning from beyond the grave to confront Blair or Cameron: the debate would not have been much of a contest since he would wipe the floor with them in five minutes tops; but it would be so satisfying, reminiscent of the Roman arena with lions devouring helpless Christians. How much less of a contest it would be against the mice to whom you refer...