Thursday 11 April 2019

Dash it, 6 more months of Brexit

Long ago I gave up thinking that the UK would leave the EU.

The remain majority in Parliament and the media have both blocked enough and thrown enough mud into the air to stop the process. Indeed, just last night we have seen a 6 months extension agreed....against the PM's desires for a short period that might allow a revocation. Instead the canny EU wants to see the UK squirm more and more, the better the lesson for any other countries thinking of leaving.

So, now for the worst of all worlds, not only not leaving but also no remaining. Stuck in a limbo of endless, pointless chatter from the media (yes, I know, us too!) about the rights and wrongs of the different types of remaining and not really leaving the EU that are open to us.

In the short term, the Pound might strengthen a smidgen out of relief, but over the next 6 months I am afraid to say it will be very negative for the UK. Stocks will be built up due to the constant, albeit weak, no deal threat. Also investment will see a continued decline which will feed into PMI's. We are at the cyclical top in market such as commercial real estate in any event, so basically this is a bad place to be in 2019.

This is before the Tories possibly implode and walk a Marxist Government into No 10 Downing Street.

Strewth, this is going to be a long year and we will quite likely end it with Corbyn as Prime Minister and Brexit revoked anyway!


Charlie said...

They are too scared to revoke or it would have happened already. I'm a mild-mannered chap, but if Brexit gets revoked, I'll be on the streets. I don't see how they can revoke without huge civil unrest. It'll be Poll Tax riots times ten.

CityUnslicker said...

They will revoke rather than Leave in the current parliament - basically that has always been the choice. The desired route has been 3 years more of project fear to cow the population into accepting revoke. People's Vote soon to become People's revoke.

May will be gutted they gave a long extension as it ruined her and Olly's plan.

andrew said...

Corbyn is still against a peoples vote and any replacement for may will have the same view.
It is possible that parliament may take over and order a vote. This time round the entire party machinery is lined up with leave so i dont see leave losing unless leave becomes viewed as a bunch of overconfident overentitled blaggers who have moved their money overseas and remain becomes the cool insurgent underground movement

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Corbyn has opposed the EEC/EC/EU and all its works with commendable Bennite consistency for the last 40+ years. What makes you think he doesn't want to leave?

He is going along with his parliamentary party's views just to make life difficult for the Tories. I don't think for one minute he will lift a finger to keep us in when push comes to shove.

Anonymous said...

I certainly hope Sebastian is correct. But if it came to it, the Parliament is stuffed with Leavers, and people like Rory Stewart seem quite prepared to sell out their Brexit-voting constituents.

A free vote might well scupper Brexit, and if it breaks both parties too, there's plenty of money available for the creation of a Blair/Mandelson/Clegg "left" party and an Osborne/Cameron style "right" party.

If as seems likely we end up with EU elections I hope to God Farage doesn't get precious about UKIP - because if he decides to split the vote it will be (nearly) as bad as whay May is doing.

You do have to wonder what the point of a Tory vote is - free speech online is about to be even more controlled, and our toddlers to be taught about LGBTQWERTYUIOP sex, with no parental opt out. What is the point of a Conservative Party that doesn't conserve a damn thing?

Anonymous said...

I forgot to mention Assange, a hero IMHO, sickening to see our leaders gloating over his arrest.

hovis said...

anon: leades in name only

CityUnslicker said...

ha, love the Corbyn is anti-EU. Corybn is nothing, the man is so stupid it cannot be underestimated. His whole life is about hating Tories (and the UK). He will do anything that achieves that end, like all good Marxists, principles are for the other team.

Nick Drew said...

@ I'll be on the streets

yes, but will you? Really? and for how long?

no disprespect - but how many joined Farage's march?

Anonymous said...

Anon @3.17

"creation of a Blair/Mandelson/Clegg "left" party and an Osborne/Cameron style "left" party."

I've fixed that for you...

Anonymous said...

And you'll need to be on a register if you homeschool to avoid LGBQWRTYU propaganda lessons. Ain't it great to live in a free country?

Charlie said...

Yes, really, for as long as it takes. Nobody turned up to Farage's march because it started in the middle of nowhere and also because plenty of Leavers are of the opinion that Farage only cares about Farage and wouldn't be seen dead with him.

Lord Blagger said...

So Corbyn gets his 5 years and trashes the place.

The Tories, remember, rank and file are anti EU.

They will deselect and remove remainers.

Then they will get in, and they will take revenge.

Axe the EU immediately, defund the BBC.

Then its game over. The EU cannot counter, particularly when they apply EU rules such as no rights to welfare. Large numbers of poor EU nationals suddenly turn up in the EU demanding welfare