Monday 2 September 2019

Monday Morning Quick views

None of us know what will happen this week, the kids have gone back to school but do the Blazers still fit? did we push it not buying them new shoes when they were a bit moaney about the size? whose turn is it to steal little Jonnie's lunch money?

However, finally I feel the can-kicking will end. Boris has rightly decided that he will die on the battlefield or win the Crown against the Pretender.

So what do we think...will he be Prime Minister by Friday - and by that I mean with a Government under him not hanging on avoiding seeing the Queen in a Brown-ian motion.

What are everybody's bets?


BlokeInBrum said...

You've got to hope that Boris, Cummings, Gove etc. have war gamed this to death and are ready for every eventuality.
However there are still the unknown, unknowns out there and the Remoaniacs have proved themselves to be proper devious little shits.
I suppose in the end it will come down to whether the Courts and Judges want to usurp the power of Parliament or not.

Charles said...

I think he will still be there. I think Tory rebels will blink. If not I think there will be a general election, whether labour likes it or not. Moving from a Conservative to a coalition govt would be too much to stomach without a vote. Given that in this case Brexit will not have been delivered I think the Brexit Party will put a huge dent in both Conservative and Labour seats, and that fact will be concentrating peoples’ minds.

I am probably in a minority of one but I have thoroughly enjoyed politics since the 2015 election. It has exposed the current generation of politicians as shallow, grasping pygmies. I think the worst consequence of being in the EU is that it allowed generations of politicians to pose in public without wielding power or having to make decisions that had consequences. The civil service, here and in Brussels did the real work. Now we can see the consequences of this hollowing out, hopefully before it is too late to do anything about it.

hovis said...

He'll still be there. Lots of noise and much machiavellianism from Remoan Central bt I think they are at heart split too much to carry the day. However *what* he actually delivers completel different story.

Charles: make that 2 people enjoying the party since 2015/2016.

dearieme said...

Where can I read a good, short summary of the devious parliamentary twists the Remoaners have used since the referendum? Something to compare with Boris's sly prorogation is what I'm after.

Best of all, two lists, one devoted to the poison dwarf who claims to be Mr Speaker, and one devoted to the rest of the shower.

Sobers said...

I think Boris's rise in the polls post ascension to PM will save him. The Remain waiverers will look at the polls and realise in a GE Leave wipes the floor with remain on a FPTP basis. And very likely they face losing their seats and places at the trough to boot. And enough will blink that Boris scrapes through.

Remainers (like all the Euro-fanatics) are can kickers,when faced with a crisis the immediate reaction is to shove the problem a bit further down the road in the hope something will improve. They aren't faced with Brexit tomorrow so will kick the can again, hoping something can be engineered. It can't but they haven't the balls to precipitate the crisis right now.

david morris said...

What Hovis said.

Since June 2016 the curtain has certainly been drawn back on the incestuous bubble that is the politicalmediaclass. Can't say I've actually enjoyed the ride since then, but at least there is the feeling that we m i g h t be able to bequeath to our children a system that works for the benefit of the electorate in general.

andrew said...

It only takes one or two con MPs to bring the govt down. A number of them are not going to stand again...

So there will be an election. If I was a good conspiracy theorist I would say it was supposed to be well before 1 Nov but the timetable has been disrupted by JC's uselessness (or maybe cunning) and the remainer cons dislike of supporting the other side

Leaving on WTO / unfriendly terms is undeniably a bad thing for the UK economy. Undeniably there will be shortages of perishable goods (unless there are NO border checks)
If there are are really no border checks, prepare for stories about lorry loads of immigrants. Otherwise prepare for headlines like 'plenty of vegetables in the cabinet, but none at the supermarket'

I am sure BJ knows that - if there is an election shortly after 1 Nov, there will be no grateful nation cheering him into office (churchillian in one respect then).

It needs to be before for his purpose.

Here is my measurable prediction:

BJ will be the pm when govt is prorogued
We will leave on 31 Oct
There will be an election in Dec / Jan
The cons will lose.

How silly will I feel on friday - probably quite :)

E-K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jan said...

Recent developments have certainly shown up the complete incompetence of TM's time in No 10 and how during that time so many were pretending they were implementing Brexit when they had no intention of doing so. The prime culprit being the then Chancellor who was thwarting everything the whole time obviously.

In previous parliaments Tory MPs were supposed to follow the government line and the whips ensured they did so unless it was an issue with a free vote. There was no party unity or discipline at all in TM's shower of Tory MPs whereas BJ now imposing a bit of discipline is being attacked as if he is a dictator when not so long ago it was the norm to be at one with the government. At the very least there was unity within the Cabinet.

Whoever would have thought that a so recent Tory Chancellor will more than likely not even make it onto the candidate list if there is a GE?

Raedwald said...

The courts must come to the view (eventually) that this can only be sorted democratically (for anyone who missed Ld Sumption's fab series of Reith lectures this year, recommend that you listen now)

If the current Parliament cannot agree, we must have an election.

A quick election will be a Leave v. Remain contest and Leave will walk it - big Commons majority, and a mandate to clear out the Lords

Business also wants a quick election - I mean November at the latest. Decisions have been postponed too long and the edges are fraying.

No deal will become certain very soon. When it does, TBP's vote share will fall from the current 13% and Boris will gain the same.

If Labour MPs in the Midlands / North want to keep their seats, Labour needs to split into a Metropolitan Remain party and a post-industrial Leave party. Or be slaughtered by the LibDems and TBP. Boris may even decide to run weak campaigns in a few high-prospect TBP seats just to scare them even more.

There will be tears.

Anonymous said...

Why does everyone think there will be an election. All roads lead to the FTPA and there are not the numbers either way.

There is nothing more that two powerless factions sitting out the 5 year term that TM organised. And ironically, both sides would have to come together to decide a GE when it would be simpler to agree a deal.

Bear in mind if it wasn't from Crosby, TM wouldn't have moved for a GE. The numbers would probably have got a deal, and we'd not be Brexitless.

The mismanagement handed the initiative to the Remoaners but the DUP who can't agree with anyone.

As you were and wait for 2022.

Raedwald said...

FTPA won't apply. Corbyn is already signalling that Labour will support a NC motion - he's really got no choice. Margeret's cry of 'He's Frit!' will be mild in comparison with what CCHQ will launch - neither Corbyn nor Labour will survive NOT supporting a NC motion after having called constantly for an election for at least the last year.

And Nick's famous 'grey men' would simply not countenance a hung parliament / minority government beyond the very short term. They're getting used to no deal right now (with gritted teeth, I expect), and all will come right.

Anonymous said...

FTPA won't apply.

Please explain. Is this another, "we won't pay any attention to the law"

If the BBC are correct, FTPA does apply and Boris has to get the agreement of others for it.

Raedwald said...

Shorthand - sorry. I meant this parliament won't go to full term - he'll get the NC majority needed to trigger the GE.

It also looks as though no odds are available now on GE date - they're closing betting down

Anonymous said...

he'll get the NC majority needed to trigger the GE.

And what if Labour decide to hoist him on his own petard?

Labour want Brexit so they are shorn of the EU constraints on subsidy and state support. SNP want Brexit for IndyRef2. No-deal is just the icing on the cake Boris wanted to eat.

FTPA means No-deal Brexit, No NC, and no majority. Boris and Cummings flailing around trying to put out the fires they started.

Starting to look like a special place in hell and a zombie government.

E-K said...

Blair said it. "Elephant trap."

Boris is playing double bluff. He's going for an early election - apparently forced - but watch for the details in his manifesto (or lack of.) The Tory Spartans know they are f***** too. (Paraphrasing another.)

May's deal with a backstop tweak.

E-K said...

... and lots of Tory Remain MPs returned to office.

Anonymous said...

In my little history of the future, on here the other week, I stated the Johnson government would be short...

I think Boris/Cummings believe they can get a pact with Farage, however he's insisted on a No Deal Brexit, which the Tories know would be toxic in the aftermath. There's a difference between leaving it on the table - as the default that neither side wants - to improve a deal, and having it as the only option.

So I don't think he'll play ball without something meaty in return. Or Boris decides tomorrow is another day, and hopes the outfall from a No Deal he'd be entirely responsible for doesn't involve Bonfire Night becoming another historical day of note.

A People vs Parliament election is a massive risk, very much depending on the Remain vote getting split whilst the Leave vote doesn't.

If that is Cummings battle plan, I hope he has added Moltke the Elder to his reading list.